tombo82685 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: How about NYC? Think they have a better chance being further north to get initial WAA nose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: I’m going to go with philly still doesn’t measure Are you sure you want to go out on a limb like that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Are you sure you want to go out on a limb like that? It's a tough call, but yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 Cobb off the 18z gfs says phl, lga, and ewr (no central park) don't measure. The pivotal 10:1 map has phl at 1.6" and lga at 1.2". However, snow depth change for phl is only 0.1". Cobb also says Coatesville doesn't measure. So it probably isn't close for phl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: I’m going to go with philly still doesn’t measure Me too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 22 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Me too Oh I will go with Philly getting 0.1” just to keep Heisey off the ledge. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 Not much change overnight. Mt Holly cutback a bit, not surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 Another tic north on the 06 euro. Better phasing, SE ridge trending stronger over past 48-hours (below). Congrats Tombo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Haven't used this one in a while!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 19 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Based on trends this morning from most modeling, I'm thinking I'll be lucky to get 2". Could easily become a C-1" fail...very easily in fact. Trend needs to stop today and hopefully reverse. Gee, who da' thunk the Euro would become its 6z forecast from this morning after days of decent accumulations? I'm sorry but any objection review of modeling posted in this thread can only describe it as trash outside 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Storm total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5" are forecast, with the highest amounts most likely across the coastal plains of New Jersey and Delmarva. Localized amounts near 2" are possible. This will be due to some elevated instability anticipated to develop, which should add some convectively enhanced precipitation totals and rates. While it has been relatively dry recently, some minor flooding could result from the moderate to heavy rainfall. Some thunder is possible with this activity as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Not much change overnight. Mt Holly cutback a bit, not surprising. Their forecast yesterday was at the 90th percentile of possible ensemble member outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, Parsley said: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1-1.5" are forecast, with the highest amounts most likely across the coastal plains of New Jersey and Delmarva. Localized amounts near 2" are possible. This will be due to some elevated instability anticipated to develop, which should add some convectively enhanced precipitation totals and rates. While it has been relatively dry recently, some minor flooding could result from the moderate to heavy rainfall. Some thunder is possible with this activity as well. More thunder in January than July. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 This was a slight down tick from 00z and GEFS is around 3.5” for ABE, so let’s see if they measure. I believe so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: This was a slight down tick from 00z and GEFS is around 3.5” for ABE, so let’s see if they measure. I believe so. How did the eps 2" line do for the last storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 At least Colebrook is doing okay with fourth snow on snow. With tomorrow's 6" or so I'll have well over a foot of pack when I get there Saturday. Even there a period of zr expected midday tomorrow. Should be 2-3' by now, but beggars and all that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Gfs on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Gfs on its own. 10:1 even a bigger dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Where's the Euro tuday? Anyone know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 https://twitter.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1617953230159515648?s=20&t=ka-P3IgfwOvVezVyywh8dQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Rgem p-type breakdown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 Sell, sell, sell on these totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Rgem nukes @Mitchnick-land? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 4 hours ago, susqushawn said: Rgem nukes @Mitchnick-land? Fell asleep early and woke up at 2:20....oh, the life of a retired old man! Actually, as I posted earlier in the thread, Gfs started showing this enhanced snow area yesterday, but was all alone. Now, Rgem, Gem, HRRR, Euro to a lesser extent (but there), and now, suddenly, the 6z Nam. I say suddenly for the Nam because for 2 days it's literally had nothing for mby. If it works out, the lesson remains...models suck with important details >24 hrs out. And a valid argument can extend that 24 hrs to days and days. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 25 Author Report Share Posted January 25 Using last 4 12k NAMs to illustrate a point. Now that ytday's convection is known, models are ditching the far N fronto band and focusing central Pa and N Md instead. Gets qpf into area faster improving snow prospects. Won't help I95 and nearby Pa burbs, but gives Mitch/ Lancaster/Reading Allentown/NNJ a better shot at accumulation. Far N+W burbs could also score some flakes. Iffy even in favored areas due to model differences. Mitch will be the bellwether. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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