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January 25th Event. Shutout Averted? Shutout Continued?


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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Still a shot at some snow to start with storm 2. euro/eps ticked colder. Below is the eps 1" snow prob. Odds improved the most in N+W burbs. 06 gfs also ticked snowier to start.

Screenshot 2023-01-21 at 05-41-22 Models EPS — Pivotal Weather.png

So we get snow only to watch it getting washed away.  Ma Nature is evil. 😁

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cbelke said:

So we get snow only to watch it getting washed away.  Ma Nature is evil. 😁

 

 

Pretty common here. One of the top ways we get snow in a bad set-up/pattern

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19 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

06 euro has a nice storm #2 front-end for I78. I95 largely misses the initial qpf. Discount the 10:1 map, particularly on the SE edge.

floop-ecmwf_full-2023012206.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.gif

Ukie, which has been insistent on a decent front-end the last 4 runs.

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

That’s been retreating north on souther past 3 runs now. Would think your area should get something. Philly, not sure yet 

The cold air mass though is so meh before hand. I think north of I80 might see something but I would sell on anything south of there. If it was an arctic air mass beforehand different story but what’s in front of this is meh blah yuk 

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4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Eps snowfall maps are impressive, but that's  been meaningless so far this year. Fwiw, it has me around 3.5" for Wednesday. There was a day when that meant something 3 days out. Not anymore. 

FWIW, I think Tony's rule of thumb was at least 4" to guarantee that you'll measure 

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27 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

FWIW, I think Tony's rule of thumb was at least 4" to guarantee that you'll measure 

I thought it was 2, but it doesn't matter. The Eps snowfall maps only work imby when they show little or nothing.

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3 minutes ago, Will said:

Gfs is as exciting as the bills offense today. 

Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different…

 

is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end 

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25 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

0z euro cooler, here's 10:1 since it's all I have:

image.png.bcce6cd99bf116ef592f444ebcbcb6d4.png

Its more that it is wetter. Below is 6-hour snow wed am. The initial fronto band shifted south and east. It had been shifting N in previous runs. EPS also improved. We'll see if it holds and is matched in other models. Heavier qpf would be a big help with accumulations with marginal temps

trend-ecmwf_full-2023012300-f066.sn10_006h-imp.us_ma.gif

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