Chubbs Posted January 21 Report Share Posted January 21 Still a shot at some snow to start with storm 2. euro/eps ticked colder. Below is the eps 1" snow prob. Odds improved the most in N+W burbs. 06 gfs also ticked snowier to start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 21 Author Report Share Posted January 21 EPS 48-hour trends on day 3. Small changes but overall positive for front-end snow. TPV ticking south, northern stream waves stronger, main low digging further S. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted January 21 Report Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Still a shot at some snow to start with storm 2. euro/eps ticked colder. Below is the eps 1" snow prob. Odds improved the most in N+W burbs. 06 gfs also ticked snowier to start. So we get snow only to watch it getting washed away. Ma Nature is evil. 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 21 Author Report Share Posted January 21 39 minutes ago, cbelke said: So we get snow only to watch it getting washed away. Ma Nature is evil. 😁 Pretty common here. One of the top ways we get snow in a bad set-up/pattern 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted January 21 Report Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, cbelke said: So we get snow only to watch it getting washed away. Ma Nature is evil. 😁 Need to make the biggest pile before the flip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 GFS gives us nice front end, but it’s all alone and likely bogus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 06 euro has a nice storm #2 front-end for I78. I95 largely misses the initial qpf. Discount the 10:1 map, particularly on the SE edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, Chubbs said: 06 euro has a nice storm #2 front-end for I78. I95 largely misses the initial qpf. Discount the 10:1 map, particularly on the SE edge. Ukie, which has been insistent on a decent front-end the last 4 runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 fwiw, 12z gfs, mid week before flip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: fwiw, 12z gfs, mid week before flip That’s been retreating north on souther past 3 runs now. Would think your area should get something. Philly, not sure yet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Just now, tombo82685 said: That’s been retreating north on souther past 3 runs now. Would think your area should get something. Philly, not sure yet The cold air mass though is so meh before hand. I think north of I80 might see something but I would sell on anything south of there. If it was an arctic air mass beforehand different story but what’s in front of this is meh blah yuk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Eps snowfall maps are impressive, but that's been meaningless so far this year. Fwiw, it has me around 3.5" for Wednesday. There was a day when that meant something 3 days out. Not anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Eps snowfall maps are impressive, but that's been meaningless so far this year. Fwiw, it has me around 3.5" for Wednesday. There was a day when that meant something 3 days out. Not anymore. FWIW, I think Tony's rule of thumb was at least 4" to guarantee that you'll measure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 27 minutes ago, snowlurker said: FWIW, I think Tony's rule of thumb was at least 4" to guarantee that you'll measure I thought it was 2, but it doesn't matter. The Eps snowfall maps only work imby when they show little or nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Mitchnick said: I thought it was 2, but it doesn't matter. The Eps snowfall maps only work imby when they show little or nothing. It’s 2.5 for a idv event 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Will said: Gfs is as exciting as the bills offense today. Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different… is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 0z euro cooler, here's 10:1 since it's all I have: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23 Author Report Share Posted January 23 25 minutes ago, susqushawn said: 0z euro cooler, here's 10:1 since it's all I have: Its more that it is wetter. Below is 6-hour snow wed am. The initial fronto band shifted south and east. It had been shifting N in previous runs. EPS also improved. We'll see if it holds and is matched in other models. Heavier qpf would be a big help with accumulations with marginal temps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23 Author Report Share Posted January 23 Here is the euro snow depth change after the initial band, a better metric in marginal temps. First time I've seen much at phl 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Of course, 6z Gefs ain'tso great. SE ridge for much of the run after 138 hrs though 850 and surface temps not so bad. 93/94 vibe I suppose. It'll change in 6 hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 6z euro farther N with first batch of precip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23 Author Report Share Posted January 23 Just now, Heisenberg said: 6z euro farther N with first batch of precip yes, the euro giveth and the euro taketh away. 06z vs 00z. Discount the 10:1 map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 6z Eps snowfall maps anyone? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 23 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: 6z Eps snowfall maps anyone? Thanks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 All tied to the location of that initial frontogenetic finger for PHL. North the Blutarsky continues, over us, we break the shutout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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