irishbri74 Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 47 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: 6z Gfs ought to make Heisey happy, along with the rest of us. Just wait 6 hours… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Just wait 6 hours… Have to agree at this point… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Seems models show a brief PNA spike in day 9-11 LR. The day 9-10 event probably too cold on GFS. Euro was semi close at 00z, but knowing our lock we’ll be too far S and then be cold and dry until the next cutter. wish we could get one event under day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Nice to have another double digit 10:1 snowfall map. One can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Maybe well get the perfect progression like 12z control, leaving enough energy behind the front to form a storm fast enough to take advantage of the cold left over from The front. 12z GFS just about left the entire shortwave in the southwest. (We probably won’t) hope lives here… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdtown2 Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Shift that 75 to 100 miles NNE please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Birdtown2 said: Shift that 75 to 100 miles NNE please And 150 hrs closer. Just don't feel good about significant snow without some significant changes in feature placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 I am seriously doubting any cool down will result in any snow. It seems to be morphing, if not already morphed, into poorly timed transient cool/cold shots. The SE ridge just seems to be getting stronger with each ensemble cycle. Some may recall my posting equatorial 850mb winds remaing strongly Nina'ish (easterly.) I said I thought that until they subside, progged for 2/15-20, we would be stuck. All the ensembles said otherwise, but now, short of an about face, there's nothing inspiring about the ensembles imho. Personally I think the Cfs weeklies look reasonable. Here's a link fwiw. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2023012506&fh=168 Hopefully, I'm embarrassingly wrong and we can sneak 1 or more warning event(s) before mid or late Feb when I believe the pattern becomes legit workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 Well today’s run stink. Looking forward to my upcoming trip 10 hours north and +4000ft to some real winter next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 I still think this follow up wave has a shot if timed right, the GFS is on its own right now with holding all the energy back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, FreshPrince said: Well today’s run stink. Looking forward to my upcoming trip 10 hours north and +4000ft to some real winter next month. Honestly even though they did they’re all actually all pretty close to having an event, the progression is actually very similar to last years Jan event. Have to get extremely lucky though. Would like 00z models to jump on board for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Here is Icon around Day 6, what I mean is the NS Pv has to dive far enough SE and that left over energy has to be timed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Pretty sure this was a big event in the making. GFS isn’t holding all the energy back this run, doesn’t have as good as a tpv push as other models though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Canadian and GFS leave enough energy for a little light snow event, not far off from a bigger deal. Great trends tonight for the Heisy-Miracle Event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Here was cmc leading in, better timing between NS and southern vort could have lead to something good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Lots of hits on both GEPS and GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 We dun got weenie euro’d 3-6” with post frontal wave and possible Big one forming at end of run. The Heisy lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 This is the Heisy. As I’ve nicknamed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 If it had come out a little faster would have been a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Good night weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 Euro would get the job done 2 hits 2/1-2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 The Heisey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 26 Report Share Posted January 26 See, the Euro is proof that modeling is out to get me. No sooner do I post that they're fool of cr@p with a meaningful pattern change and the Euro hits us twice in 1 run. I guess they have feelings too. Sorry Hal...I apologize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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