susqushawn Posted January 23 Author Report Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Gfs 6z in the process of possible weenie run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Of course, 6z Gefs ain'tso great. SE ridge for much of the run after 138 hrs though 850 and surface temps not so bad. 93/94 vibe I suppose. It'll change in 6 hrs. Still think opportunity doesn’t come till feb 4-5th+. OP GFS probably rushing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 38 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Still think opportunity doesn’t come till feb 4-5th+. OP GFS probably rushing things Would like to see a model scorecard for our 500 mb heights. Seems like the 10+ day progs have consistently underestimated east-coast ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 46 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Of course, 6z Gefs ain'tso great. SE ridge for much of the run after 138 hrs though 850 and surface temps not so bad. 93/94 vibe I suppose. It'll change in 6 hrs. Just enjoy it till noon today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Right now difference comes around day 6-7 where cmc/euro bury/cutoff energy in W. GFS brings it East. Wonder why shortwaves keep doing this? GFS has been seemingly nailing things in the medium range lately, but something to keep an eye on as things start to get more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 I moved Wednesday to a short term thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 55 minutes ago, Chubbs said: yes, the euro giveth and the euro taketh away. 06z vs 00z. Discount the 10:1 map. Seems to be 2 camps. We hope the confluence is stronger, but things will be jumping around until a consensus is reached, probably at tomorrow's 12z. But the way things have gone, however, bad things can still happen in T-24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 12z gfs not burying energy still, so got a decent little pattern around day 8-9 or so With PV nearby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Gfs turns into worse case scenario. Hopefully wrong, but the SE Ridge will not be denied this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Euro looked interesting at end of run… control then has a MECS few days later and EPS has a bunch of hits in the time frame I’ve been speaking about (Feb 4-7) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Just trying to keep the faith alive. I understand I’m talking day 10+. We’ll see how it evolves, don’t have high hopes of course so don’t misconstrue my posts. Just stating if there’s potential that’s all, and there seems to be a window as of now. We’ll see how it evolves 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Big event 18z GfS incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 GFS 18z getting ready to go classic cold front, boundary, overrunning at 222hrs. Happy Hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Shield of snow from nova Scotia to New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Just now, FreshPrince said: Shield of snow from nova Scotia to New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, FreshPrince said: While it’s likely fantasy, this is the type of thing we’ve been hoping for all winter, a well timed shortwave that follows up a TPV dive like this…GFS still differs from euro/cmc so we’ll see… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 None of that over complicated Miller B nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: Talk about a flush hit. I haven’t been doing this very long but even I know our area favors these setups much more than those wound up super winter storms we’ve been seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, FreshPrince said: Talk about a flush hit. I haven’t been doing this very long but even I know our area favors these setups much more than those wound up super winter storms we’ve been seeing I still think period is more 4-6. Obv hope GFS is sniffing something other than glue. 18z GEFS have a few hits for the same time frame as OP, but this is more the time where I hope something can undercut the cold dome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Just for fun, might be only run this winter we got more snow than tombo eat it pal 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 GEFS rolls into solid looks in the LR keep it rolling at 00z, night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 50 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Just for fun, might be only run this winter we got more snow than tombo eat it pal And colder temperatures…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 This thread turned into a train wreck fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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