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Winter Storm Threats v3.0 (Day 5 & Beyond )


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Not in love with the look going forward. Southeast ridge flexes next week and then we hope for the tpv to be in a perfect spot for the first week of February. I think that worked in 94 but hasn’t since then lol. 
 

Eventually we will go to that classic Nina February look. At that point winter will be over as I expect a warm march when Nino forcing comes. Phl another 0.0? 

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not in love with the look going forward. Southeast ridge flexes next week and then we hope for the tpv to be in a perfect spot for the first week of February. I think that worked in 94 but hasn’t since then lol. 
 

Eventually we will go to that classic Nina February look. At that point winter will be over as I expect a warm march when Nino forcing comes. Phl another 0.0? 

Hard to speculate with confidence past day 10, this could all work out for us.  Or not.  Who knows.  I agree the SE ridge does look like it will have ample opportunity to flex as the trough dumps out west.  Severe storm outbreak down south kinda setup.   Hang in there 

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14 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Hard to speculate with confidence past day 10, this could all work out for us.  Or not.  Who knows.  I agree the SE ridge does look like it will have ample opportunity to flex as the trough dumps out west.  Severe storm outbreak down south kinda setup.   Hang in there 

Thanks Shawn. Hopefully I’m wrong and one storm works out for everyone. I’m over it and really don’t care anymore. Nothing is saving this winter from being a ratter. 

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we will see if the eps materialize, but Im optimistic if the eps look occurs from jan 31st onward. One thing that has been missing this winter has shown up on our side and it is cold air. All you need is a good high in place and something to attack it. 

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different…

 

is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end 

no there isn't one, make a thread if you would like

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10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different…

 

is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end 

Gefs just dumping the cold into the west. Not going kill hope but we probably know who will win this battle 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs just dumping the cold into the west. Not going kill hope but we probably know who will win this battle 

That was such a shift by the eps that I think the GEFS will end up correct. Hope I am wrong.

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25 minutes ago, Will said:

That was such a shift by the eps that I think the GEFS will end up correct. Hope I am wrong.

I'll  sum up this season (I  refuse to call it winter) with the 2 attached pics for 198 hrs off the Gefs. 5h and surface temp anomalies. Note, despite ridging over the NP, Alaska, and Greenland, that's what we get.

And you are correct, the Eps will fail along with any other ensemble run that flattens the SE ridge.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_34.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_34.png

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3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I'll  sum up this season (I  refuse to call it winter) with the 2 attached pics for 198 hrs off the Gefs. 5h and surface temp anomalies. Note, despite ridging over the NP, Alaska, and Greenland, that's what we get.

And you are correct, the Eps will fail along with any other ensemble run that flattens the SE ridge.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_34.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_34.png

I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th

 

 

 

1A4788FD-28EC-4F4D-B372-B49789FA183C.png

AA1ED877-315E-441F-A842-5523FB8FBE3D.png

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8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th

 

 

 

1A4788FD-28EC-4F4D-B372-B49789FA183C.png

AA1ED877-315E-441F-A842-5523FB8FBE3D.png

GEFS look very cutterish to me though. 

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29 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th

 

 

 

1A4788FD-28EC-4F4D-B372-B49789FA183C.png

AA1ED877-315E-441F-A842-5523FB8FBE3D.png

Heisey, I  love you but we've been promised workable patterns many times this year with nothing to show for it. It'll be a month, if at all.

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11 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Heisey, I  love you but we've been promised workable patterns many times this year with nothing to show for it. It'll be a month, if at all.

Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. 

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7 minutes ago, Will said:

Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. 

I'll  take a snowstorm anytime, but it's got to be a snowstorm. Not interested in a light event in March. 3"+ or low 70's for me come March.

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7 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I'll  take a snowstorm anytime, but it's got to be a snowstorm. Not interested in a light event in March. 3"+ or low 70's for me come March.

I think an interesting march depended on a ssw. Amy B said that’s not happening anymore 

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think an interesting march depended on a ssw. Amy B said that’s not happening anymore 

Well, the pv is supposed to beat to he!!, so if  that happens, we still have a shot. But like I  also said in a post earlier today, we need, imho, the 850 equatorial anomalies to reverse as progged by 2/20. Obviously, I  can be wrong and get we get a snowstorm, save front-end messes, before then, but until we do, I'm sticking with my story.

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1 hour ago, Will said:

Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. 

Agreed. During the last week of February,  the average high temperature starts to noticeably accelerate. I could care less for car and grass toppers that are mostly gone by lunchtime...

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Has a snow event day 10

Next time I get stranded on a desert island, I want Heisy there with me to assure me there’s another rescue “ship” just over the horizon‼️ 🏝️ 🛶 

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