susqushawn Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 How much for Philly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Not in love with the look going forward. Southeast ridge flexes next week and then we hope for the tpv to be in a perfect spot for the first week of February. I think that worked in 94 but hasn’t since then lol. Eventually we will go to that classic Nina February look. At that point winter will be over as I expect a warm march when Nino forcing comes. Phl another 0.0? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not in love with the look going forward. Southeast ridge flexes next week and then we hope for the tpv to be in a perfect spot for the first week of February. I think that worked in 94 but hasn’t since then lol. Eventually we will go to that classic Nina February look. At that point winter will be over as I expect a warm march when Nino forcing comes. Phl another 0.0? Hard to speculate with confidence past day 10, this could all work out for us. Or not. Who knows. I agree the SE ridge does look like it will have ample opportunity to flex as the trough dumps out west. Severe storm outbreak down south kinda setup. Hang in there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Hard to speculate with confidence past day 10, this could all work out for us. Or not. Who knows. I agree the SE ridge does look like it will have ample opportunity to flex as the trough dumps out west. Severe storm outbreak down south kinda setup. Hang in there Thanks Shawn. Hopefully I’m wrong and one storm works out for everyone. I’m over it and really don’t care anymore. Nothing is saving this winter from being a ratter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Gfs is as exciting as the bills offense today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 we will see if the eps materialize, but Im optimistic if the eps look occurs from jan 31st onward. One thing that has been missing this winter has shown up on our side and it is cold air. All you need is a good high in place and something to attack it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different… is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end no there isn't one, make a thread if you would like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Yea that was a horrible run, way different than 12z, hopefully ensembles look different… is there a thread for the midweek event because gfs and icon have a little decent front end Gefs just dumping the cold into the west. Not going kill hope but we probably know who will win this battle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Gefs just dumping the cold into the west. Not going kill hope but we probably know who will win this battle That was such a shift by the eps that I think the GEFS will end up correct. Hope I am wrong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 If I read the 18z GFS correctly, then we’re snowstorm chasing to Cancun for the Feb 4th event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, Will said: That was such a shift by the eps that I think the GEFS will end up correct. Hope I am wrong. I'll sum up this season (I refuse to call it winter) with the 2 attached pics for 198 hrs off the Gefs. 5h and surface temp anomalies. Note, despite ridging over the NP, Alaska, and Greenland, that's what we get. And you are correct, the Eps will fail along with any other ensemble run that flattens the SE ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: I'll sum up this season (I refuse to call it winter) with the 2 attached pics for 198 hrs off the Gefs. 5h and surface temp anomalies. Note, despite ridging over the NP, Alaska, and Greenland, that's what we get. And you are correct, the Eps will fail along with any other ensemble run that flattens the SE ridge. I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th GEFS look very cutterish to me though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I think anything before day 10 is wishful thinking anyway, the hope is that the pv slides east and we get the cold on our side. Happens maybe around Feb 2-4? 18z OP was horrible but hopefully a blip. The 18z GEFS is workable. Here is 18z GEFS and 12z eps. Both get the cold anomalies on east side of continent and our region around the 4th Heisey, I love you but we've been promised workable patterns many times this year with nothing to show for it. It'll be a month, if at all. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Heisey, I love you but we've been promised workable patterns many times this year with nothing to show for it. It'll be a month, if at all. Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Will said: Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. I'll take a snowstorm anytime, but it's got to be a snowstorm. Not interested in a light event in March. 3"+ or low 70's for me come March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, FreshPrince said: If I read the 18z GFS correctly, then we’re snowstorm chasing to Cancun for the Feb 4th event? Nah, that's rain. Gotta be blue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: I'll take a snowstorm anytime, but it's got to be a snowstorm. Not interested in a light event in March. 3"+ or low 70's for me come March. I think an interesting march depended on a ssw. Amy B said that’s not happening anymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think an interesting march depended on a ssw. Amy B said that’s not happening anymore Well, the pv is supposed to beat to he!!, so if that happens, we still have a shot. But like I also said in a post earlier today, we need, imho, the 850 equatorial anomalies to reverse as progged by 2/20. Obviously, I can be wrong and get we get a snowstorm, save front-end messes, before then, but until we do, I'm sticking with my story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Lou Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Will said: Yea and I personally don’t care for March snow. Starts melting as soon as it stops. I usually check out after February 20th or so. Unless it’s a March 1993 type deal. Agreed. During the last week of February, the average high temperature starts to noticeably accelerate. I could care less for car and grass toppers that are mostly gone by lunchtime... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Much better run, figured 18z gfs was a blip considering the ensembles. Hopefully PV slides E from this hour forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Has a snow event day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Has a snow event day 10 Next time I get stranded on a desert island, I want Heisy there with me to assure me there’s another rescue “ship” just over the horizon‼️ 🏝️ 🛶 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Weenie run for once 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 23 Report Share Posted January 23 Gfs 6z in the process of possible weenie run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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