Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion II

[Rainshadow]

12 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

It has been the least snowy model, so I  agree with you on that score. Just not certain that can be pegged to it being a superior model overall or just better in this pattern. 

The GEFS has been better with the EPO than the EPS this winter.  For me any operational model runs after day 8 are for entertainment purposes only.  GFS 500mb skill scores have been in 4th place, 5th place after day 6.  

[susqushawn]

Gefs dispatch the lion's share of our tpv to Eurasia this run

[Allsnow]

 

[Rainshadow]

@tombo82685, let's assume there is coupling with the trop.  Never mind how right or how off the GFS will be or where we go three weeks from these maps.

On the date of these maps, am I reading this correctly?

 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

@tombo82685, let's assume there is coupling with the trop.  Never mind how right or how off the GFS will be or where we go three weeks from these maps.

On the date of these maps, am I reading this correctly?

 

What’s incredible is that this might be our last hope of getting accumulating snowfall at phl. Let’s that sink in 

[Rainshadow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What’s incredible is that this might be our last hope of getting accumulating snowfall at phl. Let’s that sink in 

I will have to buy you some optimism herbal bananas. There are two shots alone next week. Yeah it'd be great to be in the Catskills with both of them, but those threats are not zero chances at this point.  

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I will have to buy you some optimism herbal bananas. There are two shots alone next week. Yeah it'd be great to be in the Catskills with both of them, but those threats are not zero chances at this point.  

Meh. @tombo82685 doesn’t like the airmass for either event down this way 

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

@tombo82685, let's assume there is coupling with the trop.  Never mind how right or how off the GFS will be or where we go three weeks from these maps.

On the date of these maps, am I reading this correctly?

 

correct, see that looks like a displacement SSW, the money in the bank is the split if it aligns right. This is the kind of alignment that benefits us. Anything from rockies east, you want it oriented north to south. Some of the SSW can align east to west, which is no bueno for here. 

[Will]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Meh. @tombo82685 doesn’t like the airmass for either event down this way 

 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

What’s incredible is that this might be our last hope of getting accumulating snowfall at phl. Let’s that sink in 

Are you a motivational speaker?? 😥

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Meh. @tombo82685 doesn’t like the airmass for either event down this way 

He's entitled to his opinion as am I. To me the setup isn't an i95 snow threat. Does that mean 0 chance, no, but imo odds are against it. 

[Mitchnick]

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

correct, see that looks like a displacement SSW, the money in the bank is the split if it aligns right. This is the kind of alignment that benefits us. Anything from rockies east, you want it oriented north to south. Some of the SSW can align east to west, which is no bueno for here. 

Tom, time to put on your thinking cap....how I hated that as a child when the teachers said that! Lol

The 18z Gfs, like the 12z, had both looks during the run. What happens?  Us or them (Europe) benefits, or both in varying degrees?

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

Tom, time to put on your thinking cap....how I hated that as a child when the teachers said that! Lol

The 18z Gfs, like the 12z, had both looks during the run. What happens?  Us or them (Europe) benefits, or both in varying degrees?

its tough to say. All that ridging in the strat over the pole and AK could promote high lat blocking. To me main benefit is europe there. 

[Chubbs]

Faster troposphere response to this type of disturbance vs a SSW, but benefits aren't as long lasting. Hopefully pac ridging isn't too far west for this to benefit (if it happens).

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

What’s incredible is that this might be our last hope of getting accumulating snowfall at phl. Let’s that sink in 

Bump 

[susqushawn]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bump 

😂

[Chubbs]

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bump 

We have a late snow season here and are only about 33% through (phl mean as of ytday 7.3"). Sucks so far yes, but still time for a Hail Mary or even a fumble recovery leading to field goal to avoid a shut-out.

 

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Meh. @tombo82685 doesn’t like the airmass for either event down this way 

You set the bar low, no measurable. All I am saying is there are two chances to get measurable. Nowhere did I say there are two chances to get crush jobs.  Still the same this morning. Two chances to get measurable. If you can’t find those herbal bananas, there is always this. 😉 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

We have a late snow season here and are only about 33% through (phl mean as of ytday 7.3"). Sucks so far yes, but still time for a Hail Mary or even a fumble recovery leading to field goal to avoid a shut-out.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You set the bar low, no measurable. All I am saying is there are two chances to get measurable. Nowhere did I say there are two chances to get crush jobs.  Still the same this morning. Two chances to get measurable. If you can’t find those herbal bananas, there is always this. 😉 

Love that tea btw…great before bed. 
 

I feel like this winter we need a perfect h5 set up to get snow. Obviously, still time to get an inch but that seems like a stretch. What happen to the slop events? Or the snow to rain we would get? Or has climate changed so much that we need a artic airmass in place with a perfect pna? Like @tombo82685 is saying

[Rainshadow]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Love that tea btw…great before bed. 
 

I feel like this winter we need a perfect h5 set up to get snow. Obviously, still time to get an inch but that seems like a stretch. What happen to the slop events? Or the snow to rain we would get? Or has climate changed so much that we need a artic airmass in place with a perfect pna? Like @tombo82685 is saying

There are multiple streams at work here, so of course there is no clear cut answer. 

First we are (still) warming and eventually the edges (of seasons and geographical areas) that were marginal for snow to begin with won't get it as long as this trend continues.  On the flip side with a warmer climate, there are higher precipitable water values and where it is cold enough for snow, it will.  Rutgers Snow Lab, you have to go back to the 2000s decades to find below average snow coverage in either October or November.  So that is a paradoxical conflict right there.

Then if we look back at PHL's (or NYC's) snowfall records there have been arid stretches where it did not snow alot.  We are not in unprecedented territory here.  I was a child of the 1960s when it never stopped snowing and the 1970s which went begging for big snows until 1978.  Been there, seen that.  Maybe we are in the midst of one of those stretches now?  

Drilling down to this season, the back drop for la nina is typically not spectacular for snow.  The way December unfurled with the NAO, it was a bad coincidence that the PNA was not co-operative to say the least. 

You can't make up for lost snow, but the snowier half of the winter is still in front of us and what is expected to go on with the stratosphere is not going to hurt.   

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

There are multiple streams at work here, so of course there is no clear cut answer. 

First we are (still) warming and eventually the edges (of seasons and geographical areas) that were marginal for snow to begin with won't get it as long as this trend continues.  On the flip side with a warmer climate, there are higher precipitable water values and where it is cold enough for snow, it will.  Rutgers Snow Lab, you have to go back to the 2000s decades to find below average snow coverage in either October or November.  So that is a paradoxical conflict right there.

Then if we look back at PHL's (or NYC's) snowfall records there have been arid stretches where it did not snow alot.  We are not in unprecedented territory here.  I was a child of the 1960s when it never stopped snowing and the 1970s which went begging for big snows until 1978.  been there, seen that.  Maybe we are in the midst of one of those stretches now?  

Drilling down to this season, the back drop for la nina is typically not spectacular for snow.  The way December unfurled with the NAO, it was a bad coincidence that the PNA was not co-operative to say the least. 

You can't make up for lost snow, but the snowier half of the winter is still in front of us and what is expected to go on with the stratosphere is not going to hurt.   

You dont find nyc  blowing past latest measurable snow unprecedented? I get it, we have had bad stretches before and perhaps this is it….The record for nyc was set it 19/20 

[Chubbs]

28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

There are multiple streams at work here, so of course there is no clear cut answer. 

First we are (still) warming and eventually the edges (of seasons and geographical areas) that were marginal for snow to begin with won't get it as long as this trend continues.  On the flip side with a warmer climate, there are higher precipitable water values and where it is cold enough for snow, it will.  Rutgers Snow Lab, you have to go back to the 2000s decades to find below average snow coverage in either October or November.  So that is a paradoxical conflict right there.

Then if we look back at PHL's (or NYC's) snowfall records there have been arid stretches where it did not snow alot.  We are not in unprecedented territory here.  I was a child of the 1960s when it never stopped snowing and the 1970s which went begging for big snows until 1978.  Been there, seen that.  Maybe we are in the midst of one of those stretches now?  

Drilling down to this season, the back drop for la nina is typically not spectacular for snow.  The way December unfurled with the NAO, it was a bad coincidence that the PNA was not co-operative to say the least. 

You can't make up for lost snow, but the snowier half of the winter is still in front of us and what is expected to go on with the stratosphere is not going to hurt.   

Agree with this. I was 30-years old before I saw more than 15 inches locally. Since then 9 of 18" or more and I've lost track of the 15"ers. A climate connection no doubt. Our highs are getting higher and our lows lower.

I will add that I don't think anyone has a good handle on the net impact of climate change on our snow amounts. The problem is large natural variability and a still changing climate. The obs over the past 30 years were collected in a cooler climate than present. To get 30-years centered on 2022, need to wait till 2037. Ask me again then😂

[ErieWX]

13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

There are multiple streams at work here, so of course there is no clear cut answer. 

First we are (still) warming and eventually the edges (of seasons and geographical areas) that were marginal for snow to begin with won't get it as long as this trend continues.  On the flip side with a warmer climate, there are higher precipitable water values and where it is cold enough for snow, it will.  Rutgers Snow Lab, you have to go back to the 2000s decades to find below average snow coverage in either October or November.  So that is a paradoxical conflict right there.

Then if we look back at PHL's (or NYC's) snowfall records there have been arid stretches where it did not snow alot.  We are not in unprecedented territory here.  I was a child of the 1960s when it never stopped snowing and the 1970s which went begging for big snows until 1978.  Been there, seen that.  Maybe we are in the midst of one of those stretches now?  

Drilling down to this season, the back drop for la nina is typically not spectacular for snow.  The way December unfurled with the NAO, it was a bad coincidence that the PNA was not co-operative to say the least. 

You can't make up for lost snow, but the snowier half of the winter is still in front of us and what is expected to go on with the stratosphere is not going to hurt.   

I think the big product of all of this is less days of snow cover. Probably we end up closer to a climate like Denver where you get some big, supercharged snow events followed by warm days and rapid melting. That’s just my take though. 

[Rainshadow]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You d find nyc  blowing past latest measurable snow unprecedented? I get it, we have had bad stretches before and perhaps this is it….The record for nyc was set it 19/20 

I need more than one location.  

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Agree with this. I was 30-years old before I saw more than 15 inches locally. Since then 8 of 18" or more and I've lost track of the 15"ers. A climate connection no doubt. Our highs are getting higher and our lows lower.

I will add that I don't think anyone has a good handle on the net impact of climate change on our snow amounts. The problem is large natural variability and a still changing climate. The obs over the past 30 years were collected in a cooler climate than present. To get 30-years centered on 2022, need to wait till 2037. Ask me again then😂

The NNE area(including Tombo’s area) is warming at alarming rate. Eventually it will catch up to that area 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I need more than one location.  

Phl bwi dca all haven’t measured anything