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Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion II


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3-day trend on D10 gefs.  Most notable items:

- weaker -epo

- stronger tpv N of Japan, which should pump the Alleutian ridge

- lower heights around Greenland, ridging shifted west in Europe

- our tpv similar position

Hard to expect legit threats thru this period.  Cutter setup.

To improve our odds I'd hope to see:

- ridging bleed into NAO domain from Europe.  Seems logical with a predominant low pressure S of Greenland slowing as it hits the ridging 

- improve -epo to at least funnel more cold to our N to hopefully tap with any confluent setup

- tpv farther S/SE...as much as possible, too far N here

SE ridge is here to stay for now.  We can still get a 2-3 day window if the stars align, closer to end of Jan

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh240_trend.gif

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Just now, susqushawn said:

Nice trend here to squash the SE ridge temporarily.  The ridge axis shift W in Europe may be aiding tpv to help flatten heights 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh294_trend.gif

Thats when we could get lucky. Would have to time up convergence/cold air with a relatively weak disturbance taking a flatter track. Iffy, but thats what we are left with.

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gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.pngI have seen worse looks. Best GEFS look in awhile. It’s a totally different look than what we have right now with zero cold air in North America. It’s possible with it being mid winter the cold press could be stronger than shown and the overrunning look could be near us. Time will tell but I don’t see gloom and doom atm. Is it perfect? Certainly not but it could offer a threat or two. 

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35 minutes ago, Will said:

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.pngI have seen worse looks. Best GEFS look in awhile. It’s a totally different look than what we have right now with zero cold air in North America. It’s possible with it being mid winter the cold press could be stronger than shown and the overrunning look could be near us. Time will tell but I don’t see gloom and doom atm. Is it perfect? Certainly not but it could offer a threat or two. 

All the ensembles have been changing, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. Therefore, I  have no clue what's going to happen based on the ensembles, but in light of the season so far, it's hard to be optimistic. 

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40 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

All the ensembles have been changing, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. Therefore, I  have no clue what's going to happen based on the ensembles, but in light of the season so far, it's hard to be optimistic. 

Oh I agree but the one thing we haven’t had hardly at all this winter is abundant cold air nearby. That looks to change after this week. I realize seeing red over the southeast coast scares people but put Barney purple over top of us and it’s static electricity and no snow. Give me a boundary of cold and warm to run disturbances along and I will take my chances. And chances we haven’t had. So to me, it’s an improvement. Does it deliver? I guess the odds say no but right now we have lower odds than the Bears winning the Super Bowl in a month. 

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nyc and phl might end with lowest season snowfall if that’s true 

I think they get something at some point this winter. But normal snowfall outside of a big boy isn’t going to happen imo. Right basically just rooting for 1 storm 

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1 hour ago, Captain Lou said:

Unfortunately, this idea seems to be gaining traction...

Probably because it's reflected on the CFS weeklies starting at this link.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2023011506&fh=168

May be on the Euro weeklies too, but I  haven't looked. 

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Just going off of anecdotes and not data, but...whatever happened to clipper systems? I grew up in the 2000s and most winters it seems like the local TV forecasts would mention 2-3 clippers each winter that would bring around a coating-1", maybe 2" for lucky areas. Not sure if clippers are more prevalent in a particular ENSO phase, but it just seems like they have become rarer lately too - as if our only chances of snow have to come from legitimate organized storms. I'd gladly take C-1" right now lol

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37 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Just going off of anecdotes and not data, but...whatever happened to clipper systems? I grew up in the 2000s and most winters it seems like the local TV forecasts would mention 2-3 clippers each winter that would bring around a coating-1", maybe 2" for lucky areas. Not sure if clippers are more prevalent in a particular ENSO phase, but it just seems like they have become rarer lately too - as if our only chances of snow have to come from legitimate organized storms. I'd gladly take C-1" right now lol

Agree. Not a bad pattern with chances of nuisance snows every few days and watching for the ones that could slow down and tap Atlantic moisture/ turn into Miller Bs etc.... also reinforced the cold air. I believe the 2013-2015 period was the last time we had a prolonged cold/clipper setup. The last 8 years have been brutal as far as consistency goes.....

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

Probably because it's reflected on the CFS weeklies starting at this link.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2023011506&fh=168

May be on the Euro weeklies too, but I  haven't looked. 

Thursdays ones showed it as well

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I thought you hate the -nao with a -pna 

If -epo comes to fruition Canada will have cold air, as you know.  That's presumably what he's referring to.  Without a -nao will be hard to tame the beast.   Any time a system ejects from the SW it will pump a ridge out ahead without any Greenland block.  That's why I'm a hard sell on the GEPS broad brush negative 850s with a +nao.  Baloney 

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anyways, I though the eps looked pretty good after next weekend. You can see the difference from 0z to 12z how some ridging into Greenland forces the tpv a bit further south and bringing the colder air in. 

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