Mitchnick Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 I'm thinking if I don't see accumulating snow in the next 4 days, there won't be a "legit shot" (as opposed to the computer generated debacles we've had all season) until the Nina 850 anomoly machine shuts down, currently progged to be around 2/20. IF that prog is correct and IF the polar vortex takes the beating as also progged, then I would expect to see a legit shot(s) before the season ends. Don't know about the Philly area, just speaking for mby. And Wednesday is clearly in doubt now in my mind as some of the modeling has put me in the 1-2" range (vs the 2-4" range up until today's 12z runs) which experience in this hobby means a better than even shot of a coating to 1/2" should those forecasts hold as we approach Wednesday; if not bust completely between now and then confirming my suspicions. Honestly, and this is probably different than most, I'd rather a complete miss than another reminder of how bad this season has been that a coating+ provides. Still some modeling supporting 2-4", so I haven't given up all hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 Yea on ensembles looks like by the 4th we get a period of colder temps from lower heights moving into E Canada. Not the best pattern, but a window of opportunity for sure if holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Given the paucity of events (for the non-lakes folks) that this thread has resulted in and the fact that the thread has hit 50 pages, someone should start a part II. I nominate @susqushawn! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshPrince Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, snowlurker said: Given the paucity of events (for the non-lakes folks) that this thread has resulted in and the fact that the thread has hit 50 pages, someone should start a part II. I nominate @susqushawn! I second. (Hi, long time lurker first time poster, transfer from AmericanWx page) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Euro cuts everything in the long range. Including the Groundhog Day storm which makes sense since this winter is like the Groundhog Day movie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 32 minutes ago, Will said: Euro cuts everything in the long range. Including the Groundhog Day storm which makes sense since this winter is like the Groundhog Day movie As much as it sucks have to look beyond day 10 right now, euro might have set up for a decent pattern beyond then if it had gone beyond then. EPS looking interesting in LR… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 Can see how this could work out if rolled forward. Cold on our side for once, solid -epo, get some stj energy and could have something here beyond this frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baseball0618 Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 4 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Think our next window around 5-7th depending if that PV energy shifts SE with the energy that is gonna dump into the SW. maybe a well timed wave? 2024? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 32 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said: 2024? CFS monthly already has a southeast ridge next February. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Baseball0618 said: 2024? Not sure when Heisy is going to realize this, but 95% of the time when a threat looks good at day 10 or beyond it never materializes. They generally pop up inside 7 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 22 Author Report Share Posted January 22 17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Not sure when Heisy is going to realize this, but 95% of the time when a threat looks good at day 10 or beyond it never materializes. They generally pop up inside 7 days. I’m talking about the overall pattern potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, FreshPrince said: I second. (Hi, long time lurker first time poster, transfer from AmericanWx page) Welcome @FreshPrince! Please post more, it will bring us good luck. @snowlurker I'm on it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 Version 3.0 is up...bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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