Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: This we take, long way to go though lol Why would we want to take? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Why would we want to take? The cold has completely left North America . no signs of it coming back yet imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The cold has completely left North America . no signs of it coming back yet imo The Gefs and Geps are torches on average the next 2 weeks. Eps do flip to workable and cooler regime post day 10, give or take. Assume for a moment the Gefs and Geps are correct, but then flip immediately after today's forecast period. It would likely take at least another 5 days to cool down. That puts us to 1/20. I can't recall any winter that went snowless so late into the season turn out to be anything other than a fail. If it is, so be it. I just would hate to have the Eps string us out only to join the other 2 down the road. Enough already. Poop or get off the pot "winter" of 22/23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: The Gefs and Geps are torches on average the next 2 weeks. Eps do flip to workable and cooler regime post day 10, give or take. Assume for a moment the Gefs and Geps are correct, but then flip immediately after today's forecast period. It would likely take at least another 5 days to cool down. That puts us to 1/20. I can't recall any winter that went snowless so late into the season turn out to be anything other than a fail. If it is, so be it. I just would hate to have the Eps string us out only to join the other 2 down the road. Enough already. Poop or get off the pot "winter" of 22/23. I'm giving it to jan 15th as I stated weeks ago. By then you will know back half of jan and what we are going into Feb also. If that looks bleak, then just pray for a storm at that point. Jan 15/16 only had like an inch of snow up until the blizzard in late jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 I wouldn’t say that looks like a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: The Gefs and Geps are torches on average the next 2 weeks. Eps do flip to workable and cooler regime post day 10, give or take. Assume for a moment the Gefs and Geps are correct, but then flip immediately after today's forecast period. It would likely take at least another 5 days to cool down. That puts us to 1/20. I can't recall any winter that went snowless so late into the season turn out to be anything other than a fail. If it is, so be it. I just would hate to have the Eps string us out only to join the other 2 down the road. Enough already. Poop or get off the pot "winter" of 22/23. Writing is on the wall IMO. Swinging and missing on the December pattern set the tone for the season. Now the pac has taken over with all the cold gone in North America. We have gotten to the point where we can’t snow unless we have a artic airmass. Regular cold doesn’t do it anymore at this latitude. Last winter we had a solid January with two decent storms. I don’t see That happening this winter with the pv and jet ext Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I'm giving it to jan 15th as I stated weeks ago. By then you will know back half of jan and what we are going into Feb also. If that looks bleak, then just pray for a storm at that point. Jan 15/16 only had like an inch of snow up until the blizzard in late jan 15/16 was a nino and this is not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 15/16 was a nino and this is not you're getting a nino pattern right now similar to 15/16 which had a firehose from the pac dec into first week of jan. That dec was warmest on record i believe. Yea, we aren't in a nino enso right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: you're getting a nino pattern right now similar to 15/16 which had a firehose from the pac dec into first week of jan. That dec was warmest on record i believe. Yea, we aren't in a nino enso right now My point is, that winter was very bleak with a torch Dec then it turned on a dime and we got a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 90 hr Euro looked impressive with vort in Illinois. Let us know if the Eps beyond 90 hours respond. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Just now, Mitchnick said: 90 hr Euro looked impressive with vort in Indiana. Let us know if the Eps beyond 90 hours respond. Thanks. they don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: 90 hr Euro looked impressive with vort in Illinois. Let us know if the Eps beyond 90 hours respond. Thanks. Snow is still north of Tombo on the eps into Vt and NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: they don't 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow is still north of Tombo on the eps into Vt and NH Lol. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, Will said: I wouldn’t say that looks like a torch. It gets warmer again by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 To think that just last week I was questioning if we have enough firewood split to last the burning season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Why would we want to take? I meant at H5, but yeah looking at ensemble members probably skewed by a few members that have big cutters, one HECS. 18z eps has like 4-5 members that have the norlun over us, but this is a long shot. Battling temps and norlun placement, good luck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Why would we want to take? Btw your time stamp doesn’t match mine. I meant later in the run….looks like a signal for some kind of coastal with just enough cold air available. Will be different in an hour anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Writing is on the wall IMO. Swinging and missing on the December pattern set the tone for the season. Now the pac has taken over with all the cold gone in North America. We have gotten to the point where we can’t snow unless we have a artic airmass. Regular cold doesn’t do it anymore at this latitude. Last winter we had a solid January with two decent storms. I don’t see That happening this winter with the pv and jet ext I don’t agree with that. Yeah we are warming and only getting warmer, but you can’t blame everything on that just like you can’t blame everything on La Niña. It’s partly not snowing there because storms are cutting west of I-95 and you’re starting a bad stretch of winters, which has happened multiple years in the past pre-2000s. Sometimes you just have bad luck. I mean heck what are the chances of 2 historic storms hitting Buffalo while I got 1.5 feet out of the first storm and less than a foot in the second. It happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Boring runs again, I guess this is a wave/time period to maybe watch? Ends up burying it… yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Both GEFS and EPS like the 13th for some sort of coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 10 hours ago, Mitchnick said: The Gefs and Geps are torches on average the next 2 weeks. Eps do flip to workable and cooler regime post day 10, give or take. Assume for a moment the Gefs and Geps are correct, but then flip immediately after today's forecast period. It would likely take at least another 5 days to cool down. That puts us to 1/20. I can't recall any winter that went snowless so late into the season turn out to be anything other than a fail. If it is, so be it. I just would hate to have the Eps string us out only to join the other 2 down the road. Enough already. Poop or get off the pot "winter" of 22/23. Well, there you have it. 0z Eps has caved, or is in the process, to the 0z Geps and Gefs. Compare 12z Eps at 360 hrs (top) to 0z at 348. Assuming all 3 ensemble suites hold with that look, most of January is toast short of a fluke in a crappy pattern. It is what it is as the saying goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 GEFS dominant Ptype for friday night. Places that already have had snow this winter have the best shot. After the torch looks like we will remain on the south edge of any snow threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Well, there you have it. 0z Eps has caved, or is in the process, to the 0z Geps and Gefs. Compare 12z Eps at 360 hrs (top) to 0z at 348. Assuming all 3 ensemble suites hold with that look, most of January is toast short of a fluke in a crappy pattern. It is what it is as the saying goes. Brutal….the mjo isn’t helping anything. We are not seeing the cold phase response on the ensembles anymore. Time to prepare for record low snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, PreserveJon said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 From what I can see, the best chance for something in next 2 weeks is the period Heisy has stated in the jan 14-16th period. Thats a favorable look on ens currently. How it plays out moving forward, who knows, but thats the best look right now. Honorable mention would go to later next weekend, but the closed low northeast of main may carve that to shreds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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