The Grass is Obviously Greener on the Other Side

[Jaderbeats]

So, I made a prediction back in June that there would be no snow in Philly. Not only would there not be any snow but there would be no snow al winter. I love the snow as I am a Michigan guy to the core, and I am used to snow by now. I have been in Philly for two years and it snowed a little last year (I am going to say that was the last bit in the cup) and zero this year 2022, now I won't get all into the whole global warming thing, but I will say that the last time Philly went without snow was in 1972-73 and even then, they had a trace of snow. I would love to hear some opinions on What, Where, and Why you feel it hasn't snowed in Philly and if this is the end of winters in the Northeast? Let's hear your thoughts.

[susqushawn]

I think back on some of the better nor'easters here with temps starting in the high teens and low 20s, and staying put most of the storm.  Even with warming, it will take a good number of years to eliminate those from occurring.  I wonder if anyone has ever evaluated the temperature during the bigger storms.  Have they trended up in correlation with the avg temps in general?  If you read the Kocin Uccellini book they share a similar sentiment from decades past where periods of snow droughts would trade with periods of above avg snowfall.  Plenty of snow left in the tank I believe.  

[Chubbs]

Below is Philadelphia's annual snowfall history. A couple of comments:

1) Snowfall measurements are more careful and more frequent than they used to be. Some snow was missed back in the day but no one knows how much.

2) Philly snow is more variable than Michigan I would guess. More strikeouts, but we can hit a home run and our home runs are bunched together.

3) Our biggest long-term snow trend is increased variability. The good years (and individual storms) are getting better and the bad years worse. Currently we are in a bit of a slump, but we were on a hot streak not long ago.

4) #3 is consistent with climate change. Its getting warmer and wetter here. It doesn't snow as frequently but when it does we get more. We are getting fewer singles, but just as many home runs, and our home runs are getting longer. Currently we appear to be on the cusp of warmer vs wetter. South of us - warming is generally more important, Balt/DC/Richmond/Raleigh are all trending less snowy on average; while to the north wetter can win out over warmer.

5) As to the future, that depends on how far we go down the warming path. Pretty clear that eventually warming will win out, but given the local variability, hard to say how close we are to that threshold. In any case we are far from the end of snow here. You may be surprised by how much we can get.

[tombo82685]

Honestly, I wasn’t even sure if this was a legit post or not 

[MsHeatMiser]

This is a really good write up about the variability of winters in Philadelphia: 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/inq2/weather-philadelphia-forecast-snow-winter-data-20211207.html