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Winter 2022-23 Vendor Thoughts


ezweather
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Very interesting tweet from wxrisk.com via twitter.. I'm pretty sure most of you follow.  I know Tony will chime in.  I'll paste below what he posted tonight.. Sure did does look very interesting..  He always cracks me up with how he says things.. See below.  Let's hope this verifies and we finally cash in.....

https://twitter.com/WxRiskGrains

LOOKING AT DECEMBER 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies show stunning winter pattern with at least 4 maybe 5 or 6 SECS threats (Significant East Coast Snowstorm) Lets looks/1

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LOOKING AT DECEMBER 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 12-13/2.

This one gives me a woody. Key will be PNA going from Neutral to Pos

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LOOKING AT DEC 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 15-16/ 3. KEY = PNA goes Super Positive. Note -NAO in Greenland retrograding to Baffin island. Also woody!

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LOOKING AT DEC 2022 --Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 19-20/ 4 KEY=Cross Polar flow showing up as +PNA goes bonkers. Big Midwest risk here as well. who needs Viagra?

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LOOKING AT DEC 2022 --Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 24 & DEC 28/ 5 2 more POSSIBLE events; The -NAO monster block stays into fooking Jan 2023. Good googly Moogly !

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I would love dt to be right and admire his willingness to put forecasts out like he does.  It's hard to put confidence in the weeklies given fairly drastic shifts <10 days in some ensemble guidance today and also my ptsd for the dreamy euro weeklies from a few years ago that never materialized.   Everything he says is sound here except it's based on an ever changing long range low confidence set of model guidance

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59 minutes ago, ezweather said:

Very interesting tweet from wxrisk.com via twitter.. I'm pretty sure most of you follow.  I know Tony will chime in.  I'll paste below what he posted tonight.. Sure did does look very interesting..  He always cracks me up with how he says things.. See below.  Let's hope this verifies and we finally cash in.....

https://twitter.com/WxRiskGrains

LOOKING AT DECEMBER 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies show stunning winter pattern with at least 4 maybe 5 or 6 SECS threats (Significant East Coast Snowstorm) Lets looks/1

Image

LOOKING AT DECEMBER 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 12-13/2.

This one gives me a woody. Key will be PNA going from Neutral to Pos

Image

 

LOOKING AT DEC 2022 -- Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 15-16/ 3. KEY = PNA goes Super Positive. Note -NAO in Greenland retrograding to Baffin island. Also woody!

Image

 

LOOKING AT DEC 2022 --Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 19-20/ 4 KEY=Cross Polar flow showing up as +PNA goes bonkers. Big Midwest risk here as well. who needs Viagra?

Image

LOOKING AT DEC 2022 --Thurs PM EURO Weeklies DEC 24 & DEC 28/ 5 2 more POSSIBLE events; The -NAO monster block stays into fooking Jan 2023. Good googly Moogly !

Image

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Since you asked John.  I think the weeklies just run with the current week 2 pattern.  Two weeks ago they had the SE Ridge forever.  Doesn't mean we can't go in/out of this look.  I know I am conservative, I don't put much stock in what the ensembles say past day 10. Especially now when they are struggling below when does skill start time. 

  

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Thanks Tony.  Yeh, I haven't hide time to really dive to see how things are shaping up the future pattern.  I do like looking at model trends and see which direction things are going.  Definitely like those 5 day composites like the 6-10 and 11-15 day ones.  I hope to really dive in on how things will evolve.  

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