ErieWX Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 To continue the discussion of @Qtown Snow I think we have something to track. Right now the lakes are favored and gefs and eps trended towards cmc. Some op runs hit closer to I-95 but the +NAO reboot might be a challenge for eastward movement for now, but is still 7-8 days out so that could change as it’s on the edge of skill time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 day 7 snowstorm on the figs for gigi on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: day 7 snowstorm on the figs for gigi on the euro There goes the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 not a ton of support on eps for that, but not a 0 shot either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 12z suite continues to hammer away at the lake effect potential later this week up here after the wed snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted November 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 12z suite continues to hammer away at the lake effect potential later this week up here after the wed snow event. Seems probably better for you and Buffalo metro, lots of sw flow shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: day 7 snowstorm on the figs for gigi on the euro What this hot dog map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 51 minutes ago, ErieWX said: Seems probably better for you and Buffalo metro, lots of sw flow shown Yup, I need wsw here and it looks suitable later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: Yup, I need wsw here and it looks suitable later this week Bath water Lake Ontario, thunder snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Bath water Lake Ontario, thunder snow? Most likely. Witnessed it last year when I lived in lowville. Constant lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Best chances for good snowfall here looks like wed/thu under nw flow before it changes direction. Big (but brief) heavy upslope thump. Tuesday night/early wed looks a bit too warm with the main wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 18 hours ago, ErieWX said: Best chances for good snowfall here looks like wed/thu under nw flow before it changes direction. Big (but brief) heavy upslope thump. Tuesday night/early wed looks a bit too warm with the main wave. I wanted to chase a LES event this year. The one end of week in Buff looks interesting. Work might make it difficult though unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 45 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: I wanted to chase a LES event this year. The one end of week in Buff looks interesting. Work might make it difficult though unfortunately. Your best bet for getting out there is probably Thursday. Before that I should be getting the heavy stuff for 24 hrs or so starting Wednesday, but highest totals are somewhere in the Buffalo or Watertown/tug region as that SW flow sticks around all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 minute ago, ErieWX said: Your best bet for getting out there is probably Thursday. Before that I should be getting the heavy stuff for 24 hrs or so starting Wednesday, but highest totals are somewhere in the Buffalo or Watertown/tug region as that SW flow sticks around all weekend Yea I would drive out there Wednesday night probably, question is would I be able to get home by Sunday at 6pm. If the crazy GFS/CMC are right I’d probably be stuck there for the month of December lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted November 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Yea I would drive out there Wednesday night probably, question is would I be able to get home by Sunday at 6pm. If the crazy GFS/CMC are right I’d probably be stuck there for the month of December lmao Yeah NBM went nuts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Yea I would drive out there Wednesday night probably, question is would I be able to get home by Sunday at 6pm. If the crazy GFS/CMC are right I’d probably be stuck there for the month of December lmao No you wouldn’t, be fine next day. Roads crews in our areas are use to this snow. They can handle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 15, 2022 Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 Couple 6z euro members and control give us our first accumulating snow for the 20th with the N/S clipper. Gotta keep an eye on it to see if it’s able to dive far enough South and West and if any southern stream energy gets involved. PNA spike helps with this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 15, 2022 Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 Enjoy the pending lake effect blast @tombo82685 @ErieWX , do you have a live cam setup ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2022 Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Couple 6z euro members and control give us our first accumulating snow for the 20th with the N/S clipper. Gotta keep an eye on it to see if it’s able to dive far enough South and West and if any southern stream energy gets involved. PNA spike helps with this too Euro has that little wave of light snow Saturday night/Sunday morning from i95 nw. Let’s see if that beefs up a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2022 Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Euro has that little wave of light snow Saturday night/Sunday morning from i95 nw. Let’s see if that beefs up a bit That looks like a synoptic scale repeat of what just transpired the previous Sat Night/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted November 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Qtown Snow said: Enjoy the pending lake effect blast @tombo82685 @ErieWX , do you have a live cam setup ? The nest cam is on my list of things I plan to get for the back. Not sure if I’ll have a chance before the event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Probably not enough cold push for us, but I’d take this setup in Dec/Jan. Little less ridging and stronger TPV press would have done it. This large S/W being modeled a few days now. More of a potential impact for Upstate and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Tom might enjoy the 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 Positive is so far all the 12z runs showing that big ULL parking in SE Canada. We get a big PNA spike, but the main shortwave is just way too strong for down here on all the models. small tidbit, but I remember Dec 2020 event at this range looked very similar with a cutter. As we got in the day 6-8 range models picked up on the TPV record breaking 50/50 and turned it into a snow event. That was later in the season though as this would be a Thanksgiving event. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2022 Report Share Posted November 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Tom might enjoy the 12z GFS I already pinched him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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