Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2022 Report Share Posted October 28, 2022 First Tom & I want to thank-you for all the views we get in this thread. We had the second most views (other than the pandemic cool season) ever this past cool season, up about 23% from last cool season and it was overall not very exciting away from the coast. So our plan is to start with the maybe/maybe not Halloween event if the wetter models (hello UKMET) remain so. No changes from last season as far as format. We are getting too convective for our liking in April, so we may end this earlier in April than previous years. It depends on how synoptic scale vs overly convective April starts and whether or not there is a chance for snow. As far as I know, the GFS is getting an upgrade in November. It is almost there and no announcement, I wonder if there is going to be a slippage. The Euro upgrade looks to be ensemble centered and not till spring of next year. I can't find anything on the Canadian or UKMET. I have heard the NAM is going, but have not read any announcement on it. I get the perception the NAM gets better farther north and east of us and it is good with mixed precip events. Please add if you do know anything further with any of them. As for a quick look at the least cool season. Some upgrades are better than others and the Canadian was pretty, pretty, pretty, good on the snow side. No other model/ensemble was close. On the qpf side, while the EPS scored the best, it was not the clear runaway of the previous cool season. The UKMET for a second most accurate model at 500mb, is not very good with qpf and also had the wettest bias. Wrap your ahead around this one, the OP ECMWF averaged a wetter bias (2nd highest overall) than the WEFS. Speaking of wet biases, that is inherent with all of the models. There were 48 evaluated events last cool season. They all averaged too wet with 25 of them and they all averaged too dry with just 7 of them. I included the synopses for the dry bias events. On the snow side they were not as blatantly too snowy as the previous season, but an overall snowy bias was still there. The one notable exception was the bombing low in late January. Comments and suggestions are always welcomed! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2022 @tombo82685, 12z run today (29th) we start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 euro 10/29 12z: .15 10/30 0z: .5 10/30 12z: .25 10/31 0z: .5 10/31 12z: .47 eps 10/29 12z: .47 10/30 0z: .58 10/30 12z: .6 10/31 0z: .5 10/31 12z: .37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: euro 10/29 12z: .15 10/30 0z: .5 eps 10/29 12z: .47 10/30 0z: .58 UKMET is off to a UKWET start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 On 10/30/2022 at 1:08 PM, tombo82685 said: euro 10/29 12z: .15 10/30 0z: .5 eps 10/29 12z: .47 10/30 0z: .58 12z run today is going to be the last (31st). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Looks like we picked up where we left off last season. You are wetter than the GEFS, you are in trouble. UKMET, we don't live at 500mb. Euro, you are not what you used to be. Welcome to the sometimes right, sometimes wrong club. For this event the GEFS came in first. The UKWET last. There was a SE of PHL bias, especially at the start of evaluation time which means for the Lehigh Valley the story for this evaluation would be different. Subjectively I think the Euro did better there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 On 11/2/2022 at 9:17 AM, Rainshadow said: Looks like we picked up where we left off last season. You are wetter than the GEFS, you are in trouble. UKMET, we don't live at 500mb. Euro, you are not what you used to be. Welcome to the sometimes right, sometimes wrong club. For this event the GEFS came in first. The UKWET last. There was a SE of PHL bias, especially at the start of evaluation time which means for the Lehigh Valley the story for this evaluation would be different. Subjectively I think the Euro did better there. @tombo82685, EPS behaving? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: @tombo82685, EPS behaving? They were until this newest run which pushed over .1 at philly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: They were until this newest run which pushed over .1 at philly Okay. We start. Go as back as you can and I might be able to guess at older ones on pivotal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Okay. We start. Go as back as you can and I might be able to guess at older ones on pivotal. I have one question first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: I have one question first Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Just now, Rainshadow said: Yes We know the eps aren’t behaving, but are you behaving? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: We know the eps aren’t behaving, but are you behaving? Of course. I’d say 00z Friday should be 1st run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 euro 11/4 0z: 0 11/4 12z: 0 11/5 0z: .05 11/5 12z: .09 11/6 0z: .07 11/6 12z: .18 eps 11/4 0z: .02 11/4 12z: .05 11/5 0z: .07 11/5 12z: .14 11/6 0z: .08 11/6 12z: .25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 12 hours ago, tombo82685 said: euro 11/4 0z: 0 11/4 12z: 0 11/5 0z: .05 11/5 12z: .09 eps 11/4 0z: .02 11/4 12z: .05 11/5 0z: .07 11/5 12z: .14 definitely thru 12z, maybe thru 00z/7th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: euro 11/4 0z: 0 11/4 12z: 0 11/5 0z: .05 11/5 12z: .09 eps 11/4 0z: .02 11/4 12z: .05 11/5 0z: .07 11/5 12z: .14 12z today last, incoming at PHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 On 11/5/2022 at 8:33 PM, tombo82685 said: euro 11/4 0z: 0 11/4 12z: 0 11/5 0z: .05 11/5 12z: .09 11/6 0z: .07 11/6 12z: .18 eps 11/4 0z: .02 11/4 12z: .05 11/5 0z: .07 11/5 12z: .14 11/6 0z: .08 11/6 12z: .25 EC/EPS won the battle, but they really lost the war big time. Binary rain did fall in Philly, amounts way over the top. GGEM came in 1st. Looks like end of week tropical assisted event will be next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Anyone thinking the back to the middle of the pack performance on PHL QPF by the EC & EPS from last winter was just an aberration. Not an encouraging start. After a middle of the pack result with Halloween, the EPS & EC came in last & next to last. Worst part, the most inaccurate forecast was just before precipitation started three hours later. The winner this time was the GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Anyone thinking the back to the middle of the pack performance on PHL QPF by the EC & EPS from last winter was just an aberration. Not an encouraging start. After a middle of the pack result with Halloween, the EPS & EC came in last & next to last. Worst part, the most inaccurate forecast was just before precipitation started three hours later. The winner this time was the GGEM. Think part of issue may of been some convective elements Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Think part of issue may of been some convective elements Its convective parameterizations has not seemed to improve qpf performance with its latest upgrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Its convective parameterizations has not seemed to improve qpf performance with its latest upgrade. What I meant, placement of convection. Seemed like it had it further east when in reality it wasn’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 21 hours ago, tombo82685 said: What I meant, placement of convection. Seemed like it had it further east when in reality it wasn’t. Got it now. BTW we can start Friday's event with the 00z run this morning (9th). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 10 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Got it now. BTW we can start Friday's event with the 00z run this morning (9th). I can’t, not until the figs die Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I can’t, not until the figs die Oh well. Still going. No freeze here. Picked a pepper today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 euro 11/9 0z: 1.4 11/9 12z: 1.08 11/10 0z: 1 11/10 12z: .77 11/11 0z: .67 11/11 12z: .67 eps 11/9 0z: 1.16 11/9 12z: 1.17 11/10 0z: 1.05 11/10 12z: .81 11/11 0z: .81 11/11 12z: .73 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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