tombo82685 Posted January 24 Report Share Posted January 24 euro 1/22 12z: 1.3 1/23 0z: 1.19 snow 3.3 1/23 12z: .94 snow .2 1/24 0z: .57 snow .2 1/24 12z: .67 snow .4 1/25 0z: 1.16 1/25 12z: .98 eps 1/22 12z: .92 snow 1.8 1/23 0z: .83 snow 1.7 1/23 12z: .89 snow .7 1/24 0z: .83 snow .6 1/24 12z: .74 snow .2 1/25 0z: 1.17 snow .1 1/25 12z: .87 snow .1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 24 Author Report Share Posted January 24 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: euro 1/22 12z: 1.3 snow . 1/23 0z: 1.19 snow 3.3 1/23 12z: .94 snow .2 eps 1/22 12z: .92 snow 1.8 1/23 0z: .83 snow 1.7 1/23 12z: .89 snow .7 Was that first Euro 0? The dot confuses me. I am easily confused. Red bananas, yellow bananas, green bananas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 25 Author Report Share Posted January 25 The GGEM is scorching lately. It's 3rd first place finish in the last four events. The OP Euro & EPS came in a flat footed tie for last. The way this winter is going, a modeling consensus looks like it would work better. No model or ensemble is running away with it. On the flip side, the GFS is yet to have a 1st place finish. Speaking of the GFS, the operational runs avoided the glue sniffing the off sounding runs did with snow for PHL. So no snow table needed. A tenth here, a tenth there for the ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 25 Author Report Share Posted January 25 On 1/23/2023 at 7:07 PM, tombo82685 said: euro 1/22 12z: 1.3 1/23 0z: 1.19 snow 3.3 1/23 12z: .94 snow .2 1/24 0z: .57 snow .2 1/24 12z: .67 snow .4 eps 1/22 12z: .92 snow 1.8 1/23 0z: .83 snow 1.7 1/23 12z: .89 snow .7 1/24 0z: .83 snow .6 1/24 12z: .74 snow .2 We probably can squeeze in a 12z run too (25th). We will see. Only 11 months til Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25 Report Share Posted January 25 20 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Was that first Euro 0? The dot confuses me. I am easily confused. Red bananas, yellow bananas, green bananas. yea it was suppose to be 0 I thought there waa going to be snow and there wasn't, then forgot to delete. Old age playing with my mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 25 Author Report Share Posted January 25 On 1/23/2023 at 7:07 PM, tombo82685 said: euro 1/22 12z: 1.3 1/23 0z: 1.19 snow 3.3 1/23 12z: .94 snow .2 1/24 0z: .57 snow .2 1/24 12z: .67 snow .4 eps 1/22 12z: .92 snow 1.8 1/23 0z: .83 snow 1.7 1/23 12z: .89 snow .7 1/24 0z: .83 snow .6 1/24 12z: .74 snow .2 Yeah we can go thru 12z today (25th). Was easy. Great job GFS with the fgen forcing said no one ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 Well well well. One must be new here to be shocked that the GFS had the most inaccurate snowfall forecast for PHL with this event. The GGEM which never had measurable snow from the 12z run on the 22nd (yes since Sunday) was the only model/ensemble to do so. On the qpf side, I don't recall as much convection as this wreaking havoc with synoptic scale events. But, here we are. The 0.96" at PHL was representative, but heavier convective induced rain fell just to the northwest. Taking that into account as you like, the GGEM came in last and the GEFS which has not had a bad cold season came in 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 @tombo82685, I will let you know about the next one. Have to see if it remains as dry as it currently was at 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29 Author Report Share Posted January 29 @tombo82685, yeah it is time for the Tuesday night/Wednesday event snowfall and et al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 9 hours ago, Rainshadow said: @tombo82685, yeah it is time for the Tuesday night/Wednesday event snowfall and et al. With what run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: With what run? Duh on my part. 12z run on the 29th. Head slap time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 euro 1/29 12z: 0 1/30 0z: 0 1/30 12z: 0 1/31 0z: .01 1/31 12z: 01 snow .1 2/1 0z: .05 snow eps 1/29 12z: .01 snow .1 1/30 0z: .01 snow .1 1/30 12z: .01 snow .1 1/31 0z: .01 1/31 12z: .07 snow .7 2/1 0z: .07 snow .7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: euro 1/29 12z: 0 1/30 0z: 0 eps 1/29 12z: .01 snow .1 1/30 0z: .01 snow .1 The GGEM did actually meet our criteria with the 12z run yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 9 hours ago, Rainshadow said: The GGEM did actually meet our criteria with the 12z run yesterday. Yea I figured it did. I'm doing tuesday night into wednesday for this, correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Yea I figured it did. I'm doing tuesday night into wednesday for this, correct? yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 euro 1/29 12z: .01 1/30 0z: .01 1/30 12z: .06 1/31 0z: .1 1/31 12z: .1 eps 1/29 12z: .01 1/30 0z: .01 1/30 12z: .07 1/31 0z: .12 snow .3 1/31 12z: .1 snow .1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1 Author Report Share Posted February 1 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro 1/29 12z: .01 1/30 0z: .01 1/30 12z: .06 1/31 0z: .1 1/31 12z: .1 eps 1/29 12z: .01 1/30 0z: .01 1/30 12z: .07 1/31 0z: .12 snow .3 1/31 12z: .1 snow .1 Is this today's event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1 Author Report Share Posted February 1 On 1/30/2023 at 6:46 AM, tombo82685 said: euro 1/29 12z: 0 1/30 0z: 0 1/30 12z: 0 1/31 0z: .01 1/31 12z: 01 snow .1 eps 1/29 12z: .01 snow .1 1/30 0z: .01 snow .1 1/30 12z: .01 snow .1 1/31 0z: .01 1/31 12z: .07 snow .7 2/1/00z run can be the last for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1 Report Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: Is this today's event? yes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4 Author Report Share Posted February 4 Better late than never. The two precipitation events from this past week. Because the gap was less than 24 hours, I could not get the CoCoRaHs maps other than the early morning snow on the 1st. January 31st event: The GEFS has quietly having a decent season for it and came in 1st on the qpf side. What is more amazing the EPS came in last. Light event. I was going to ignore the snow side because of a tenth here and there, but there was the UKWET with the (wrong) heaviest snowfall forecast of any model and it was even heavier elsewhere in Pennsylvania. February 1st event: On the 25th weather event of the cool season, the GFS finally came in 1st on the qpf side. Okay tied with the ECMWF, but tied for 1st nonetheless. It was right for the wrong reason as it (and the Euro) did not have precip with the 2nd wave until late in the ballgame. The binary yes/no the UKMET &GGEM were more consistent and right about measuring. Unfortunately when the GGEM is the wettest model, it has earned a last place finish. On the snow side the same fate occurred to the GGEM. The quiet GEFS came in 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6 Report Share Posted February 6 euro 2/5 12z: 0 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: 0 2/7 0z: .02 2/7 12z: .02 2/8 0z: .01 eps 2/5 12z: .02 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: .02 2/7 0z: .01 2/7 12z: .02 2/8 0z: .02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7 Author Report Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: euro 2/5 12z: 0 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: 0 eps 2/5 12z: .02 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: .02 The UKWET made it official: 0.19". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 7 Author Report Share Posted February 7 @tombo82685, you can thank the UKWET for this one too. The precipitation associated with Thursday's WFP. Can we start this with the 12z run yesterday? 2/6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 euro 2/6 12z: .12 2/7 0z: .12 2/7 12z: .02 2/8 0z: .01 2/8 12z: .01 2/9 0z: 0 eps 2/6 12z: .07 2/7 0z: .13 2/7 12z: .16 2/8 0z: .07 2/8 12z: .04 2/9 0z: 0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8 Author Report Share Posted February 8 On 2/6/2023 at 6:08 PM, tombo82685 said: euro 2/5 12z: 0 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: 0 2/7 0z: .02 2/7 12z: .02 eps 2/5 12z: .02 2/6 0z: .01 2/6 12z: .02 2/7 0z: .01 2/7 12z: .02 00z run on the 8th can be the last one for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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