Jump to content

2022-23 Cool Season Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 11/25 Event. Erratic UKMET In 1st. GEFS Deserved Last Place.


Recommended Posts

First Tom & I want to thank-you :clap: for all the views we get in this thread.  We had the second most views (other than the pandemic cool season) ever this past cool season, up about 23% from last cool season and it was overall not very exciting away from the coast.

So our plan is to start with the maybe/maybe not Halloween event if the wetter models (hello UKMET) remain so. No changes from last season as far as format. We are getting too convective for our liking in April, so we may end this earlier in April than previous years.  It depends on how synoptic scale vs overly convective April starts and whether or not there is a chance for snow.

As far as I know, the GFS is getting an upgrade in November.  It is almost there and no announcement, I wonder if there is going to be a slippage.  The Euro upgrade looks to be ensemble centered and not till spring of next year.  I can't find anything on the Canadian or UKMET.  I have heard the NAM is going, but have not read any announcement on it.  I get the perception the NAM gets better farther north and east of us and it is good with mixed precip events. Please add if you do know anything further with any of them. 

As for a quick look at the least cool season.  Some upgrades are better than others and the Canadian was pretty, pretty, pretty, good on the snow side. No other model/ensemble was close. On the qpf side, while the EPS scored the best, it was not the clear runaway of the previous cool season. The UKMET for a second most accurate model at 500mb, is not very good with qpf and also had the wettest bias. Wrap your ahead around this one, the OP ECMWF averaged a wetter bias (2nd highest overall) than the WEFS. 

Speaking of wet biases, that is inherent with all of the models.  There were 48 evaluated events last cool season.  They all averaged too wet with 25 of them and they all averaged too dry with just 7 of them. I included the synopses for the dry bias events.  On the snow side they were not as blatantly too snowy as the previous season, but an overall snowy bias was still there. The one notable exception was the bombing low in late January.   

Comments and suggestions are always welcomed!

 

qpf1.JPG

qpf2.JPG

gfs.JPG

euro.JPG

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rainshadow changed the title to 2022-23 Cool Season Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. New Season Starts With Possible Halloween Event.
  • Rainshadow pinned this topic

Looks like we picked up where we left off last season.

You are wetter than the GEFS, you are in trouble.

UKMET, we don't live at 500mb.

Euro, you are not what you used to be.  Welcome to the sometimes right, sometimes wrong club.

 

For this event the GEFS came in first.  The UKWET last.  There was a SE of PHL bias, especially at the start of evaluation time which means for the Lehigh Valley the story for this evaluation would be different.  Subjectively I think the Euro did better there.

 

 

qpf.JPG

rain.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rainshadow changed the title to 2022-23 Cool Season Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Inaugural Halloween Event Went To The GEFS, With The UKWET Last.
On 11/2/2022 at 9:17 AM, Rainshadow said:

Looks like we picked up where we left off last season.

You are wetter than the GEFS, you are in trouble.

UKMET, we don't live at 500mb.

Euro, you are not what you used to be.  Welcome to the sometimes right, sometimes wrong club.

 

For this event the GEFS came in first.  The UKWET last.  There was a SE of PHL bias, especially at the start of evaluation time which means for the Lehigh Valley the story for this evaluation would be different.  Subjectively I think the Euro did better there.

 

 

qpf.JPG

rain.JPG

@tombo82685, EPS behaving?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/5/2022 at 8:33 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/4 0z: 0

11/4 12z: 0

11/5 0z: .05

11/5 12z: .09

11/6 0z: .07

11/6 12z: .18

eps

11/4 0z: .02

11/4 12z: .05

11/5 0z: .07

11/5 12z: .14

11/6 0z: .08

11/6 12z: .25

EC/EPS won the battle, but they really lost the war big time. Binary rain did fall in Philly, amounts way over the top.  GGEM came in 1st.  Looks like end of week tropical assisted event will be next.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone thinking the back to the middle of the pack performance on PHL QPF by the EC & EPS from last winter was just an aberration.  Not an encouraging start.  After a middle of the pack result with Halloween, the EPS & EC came in last & next to last. Worst part, the most inaccurate forecast was just before precipitation started three hours later.  The winner this time was the GGEM. 

116q.JPG

116R.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rainshadow changed the title to 2022-23 Cool Season Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 11/6 Event. Poor Showing By EPS Lands It In Last. GGEM Comes In First.
19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Anyone thinking the back to the middle of the pack performance on PHL QPF by the EC & EPS from last winter was just an aberration.  Not an encouraging start.  After a middle of the pack result with Halloween, the EPS & EC came in last & next to last. Worst part, the most inaccurate forecast was just before precipitation started three hours later.  The winner this time was the GGEM. 

116q.JPG

116R.JPG

Think part of issue may of been some convective elements 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Its convective parameterizations has not seemed to improve qpf performance with its latest upgrade. 

What I meant, placement of convection. Seemed like it had it further east when in reality it wasn’t. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rainshadow changed the title to 2022-23 Cool Season Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 11/25 Event. Erratic UKMET In 1st. GEFS Deserved Last Place.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...