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Major Hurricane Ian


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NE eyewall sonde--964mb at the surface with *117kt* winds--that's just about 135mph

NW eyewall sonde--965mb at the surface with *87kt* winds--that's the "weaker" side.

I think we have a Cat4 storm that's back in the 940s and deepening.

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I know everyone is focused on FL right now as they should be but local coastal impacts remain in play.  3-4 days of a rotting low pressure off the VA capes with Tombo high in the Canadian maritimes will surely generate high tides and beach erosion.  Full moon will at least be a few days afterwards hopefully.  Basically looking a near wash/rinse/repeat of the below Sun-Wed.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh156-156.gif

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43 minutes ago, Tiburon said:

NE eyewall sonde--964mb at the surface with *117kt* winds--that's just about 135mph

NW eyewall sonde--965mb at the surface with *87kt* winds--that's the "weaker" side.

I think we have a Cat4 storm that's back in the 940s and deepening.

That’s pretty high pressure wise for cat 4

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

First off 8 am advisory Ian is 950mb.  All the globals are wayyyy too high.  So use the forward mslp as a relative guide, not absolute number  I guess looking for anything, there is alot of dry air northwest of Ian.  One can see this with all the models across the board, that is a race between Ian making landfall and this drier air getting ingested into it and at least starting its weakening process. If you have not had a chance to watch them, Dr. Cowan's as always are excellent. 

index.gif

That dry air entrainment….or not….seems like the difference between really bad and catastrophic for someone 

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You know, there's some times I hate being right--KBYX Doppler out of Key West, FL:

image.png.07f4d7ca1e5bd0f794e7e63f98d1fe57.png

It looks like either a) Ian hasn't fully belched out all the dry air from his Cuban vacation, or b) he's starting an ERC.  Saw the double wind maxima on the earlier recon and now it looks like the southern part of the eyewall has eroded but there's a nice, healthy new eyewall forming beyond the moat.  Fearing that b) is the answer.

image.png.df20d4d9bf3bbb82dac4b07855e82964.png

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Traveling back home today saw 2 large convoys going south on 81 some where south of Harrisburg. One convoy was tree company and the other was power. Likely Florida bound. Daughter (pregnant) and son in law left Tampa today and went to his relative in Citrus county. They have a generator.  Saw some forecast maps of up to 20 inches of rain. Yikes! Hopefully they have a livable house to go back to in Tampa.

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3 hours ago, anowal01 said:

I know everyone is focused on FL right now as they should be but local coastal impacts remain in play.  3-4 days of a rotting low pressure off the VA capes with Tombo high in the Canadian maritimes will surely generate high tides and beach erosion.  Full moon will at least be a few days afterwards hopefully.  Basically looking a near wash/rinse/repeat of the below Sun-Wed.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh156-156.gif

Yeah tidal coastal impacts are going to range pretty far up the eastern seaboard. This eastward shift in Ian's track is not good to give dry air more time to at least take something off of Ian's edge.   

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BIL & SIL live in Hudson and MIL lives in JAX.    Hudson just north of Tampa.   They are getting conflicting messages from NWS that would confuse people.   They plan to ride it out.    They are a mile from the GOM with large trees over the house.   Told my wife to tell them this no joke.    Anyhow, the NWS cancelled the hurricane watch and issued a tropical storm warning, yet the hurricane statement says prepare for cat 3 winds and places may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.  I guess the conflict occurs since landfall looks to be south of Tampa Bay.   12+ inches of rain still seems like a good bet.   Looks like MIL in JAX will get rocked pretty good maybe 12 inches of rain there too and 70 mph gusts.

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Can someone please help me interpret this tool?

If the official surge warning calls for "greater than 9' above ground", doesn't that mean that there's the potential for greater than 0' flooding in locations at 9' above sea level?

If that is the case, the experimental tool calls for potential storm surge greater than 6' above ground for areas that are 9' above sea level. 

9' + 6' is a pretty enormous storm surge...

Screenshot_20220927-202825_Chrome.jpg

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18 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Can someone please help me interpret this tool?

If the official surge warning calls for "greater than 9' above ground", doesn't that mean that there's the potential for greater than 0' flooding in locations at 9' above sea level?

If that is the case, the experimental tool calls for potential storm surge greater than 6' above ground for areas that are 9' above sea level. 

9' + 6' is a pretty enormous storm surge...

Screenshot_20220927-202825_Chrome.jpg

I'd agree with your interpretation. Add elevation and surge above ground to get surge above sea-level. Per footnote, plotted values have a 10% chance of being exceeded.

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50 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I'd agree with your interpretation. Add elevation and surge above ground to get surge above sea-level. Per footnote, plotted values have a 10% chance of being exceeded.

Thanks Charlie. I wish my aunt had decided to evacuate.

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Latest aircraft recon through the eye found a pressure of 952mb, so perhaps weakening a bit from the 8PM advisory though this is likely due to the eyewall replacement cycle.

Key West radar shows how massive the eye is now. Doesn't look too great on IR but if the eye clears out again in the morning then tomorrow is going to feature some spectacular "stadium effect" satellite imagery.

recon_AF302-2409A-IAN_zoom.png

download (1).png

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3 hours ago, iceman56 said:

BIL & SIL live in Hudson and MIL lives in JAX.    Hudson just north of Tampa.   They are getting conflicting messages from NWS that would confuse people.   They plan to ride it out.    They are a mile from the GOM with large trees over the house.   Told my wife to tell them this no joke.    Anyhow, the NWS cancelled the hurricane watch and issued a tropical storm warning, yet the hurricane statement says prepare for cat 3 winds and places may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.  I guess the conflict occurs since landfall looks to be south of Tampa Bay.   12+ inches of rain still seems like a good bet.   Looks like MIL in JAX will get rocked pretty good maybe 12 inches of rain there too and 70 mph gusts.

The statement applies for the warning area I am pretty sure.  The ever slightly more eastward trend is helpful as far as wind (not rain) for places north of Tampa.  Long duration of strong winds nonetheless even in tropical storm warning areas.

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10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The statement applies for the warning area I am pretty sure.  The ever slightly more eastward trend is helpful as far as wind (not rain) for places north of Tampa.  Long duration of strong winds nonetheless even in tropical storm warning areas.

that's what I was really focused on. it's not the maxima/peak wind impact in tb area, it's duration + saturation that can be potentially catastrophic. 

having recently had a wonderful family vacation in Clearwater last month makes my heart go out even further :(

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29 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Surprised at how fast and clean the EWRC was. Didn’t think it has a chance to run at cat 4… but it should overnight. 
 

 

 

Tremendously fast and clean ERC.  Lightning really showing out in the eyewall now.  Deepening for sure.

953-954mb on the latest dropsonde.  I wonder what we’re going to wake up to.

 

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