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Major Hurricane Ian


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2 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a Tampa Bay hit. Last time Tampa Bay faced a major hurricane was 1921. I guess the odds this far out still favors a miss.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Pretty amazing when you think about it - no strong storm came into the Gulf and recurved.    You would think a late season storm would be prone to do that.    Also amazing that JAX hasn't been hit in 400 years.   You'd think a recurve could easily happen there.    My brother & sister-in-low live just north of Tampa and got  hit pretty good a couple years ago, can't remember the exact year.

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Quite a difference GFS vs Euro on the GoM storm (currently Invest 98). Euro hits west coast of FL on Thursday, while GFS is toward Mobile / Panama City on Sunday. Euro is fairly consistent from yesterday’s run, but GFS shifted west and is slower than yesterday’s run.

Thinking of making a run at this for my first hurricane chase, other than taking whatever I could get on the closest NJ beach as storms brushed by offshore or made landfall miles away.

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GFS moves it further West and making landfall in Texas, maybe Brownsville.   Euro says it'll clear out Clearwater, FL. 

Split the uprights and say look out Florida panhandle and/or Weeziana ??

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29 minutes ago, cbelke said:

GFS moves it further West and making landfall in Texas, maybe Brownsville.   Euro says it'll clear out Clearwater, FL. 

Split the uprights and say look out Florida panhandle and/or Weeziana ??

There have been vapor locked GFS solutions, but these last two runs make vapor locks look like Mensas. A CAT V hurricane is going to remain nearly stationary in the Gulf and all of that wind wave/swell induced upwelling will have no impact on the storm, because....

That being said, EPS ensembles have a number of impacting storms for us.  Granted we are at the edge of la la land and for now it looks more about rain.  As would be expected the two largest wind producers here by pass Florida to the east.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

There have been vapor locked GFS solutions, but these last two runs make vapor locks look like Mensas. A CAT V hurricane is going to remain nearly stationary in the Gulf and all of that wind wave/swell induced upwelling will have no impact on the storm, because....

That being said, EPS ensembles have a number of impacting storms for us.  Granted we are at the edge of la la land and for now it looks more about rain.  As would be expected the two largest wind producers here by pass Florida to the east.

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Agree on the La La Land at this point. Just saying the model signals are there that something will occur according to GFS and Euro, its just way too early to know what its going to do since it hasn't even formed yet. I'm just picking the middle of the goal posts right now as this will change 1000 times or more in the next week. 

I always appreciate your input Tony. Sarcastic and informative. 😉 

 

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

Agree on the La La Land at this point. Just saying the model signals are there that something will occur according to GFS and Euro, its just way too early to know what its going to do since it hasn't even formed yet. I'm just picking the middle of the goal posts right now as this will change 1000 times or more in the next week. 

I always appreciate your input Tony. Sarcastic and informative. 😉 

 

Off sounding runs never spectacular, but the EPS remains the most aggressive with next week's trof tugging at what should become Hermine.  The question becomes what happens next after that if the Euro is closest.  Even at this hour its a significant enough difference between the EPS, GEFS & GEPS and we are not even in La La Land. 

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At this point, seems that the potential here would be next Friday (Euro), next Saturday weaker and inland (Canadian), Gfs weakens it and does a loop over the southeast..... doing GFS things I suppose. Process has sped up. A couple of days ago, the threat here seemed to be in the October 2-3 time frame.....

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Even at just 90 hours out, a pretty large spread in GFS ensembles. Seeing everything from stalling in the Gulf to riding straight up the eastern seaboard (or in the Icon's case, terrorizing Florida's east coast for 24+ hours then re-intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane 🙃)

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11 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Even at just 90 hours out, a pretty large spread in GFS ensembles. Seeing everything from stalling in the Gulf to riding straight up the eastern seaboard (or in the Icon's case, terrorizing Florida's east coast for 24+ hours then re-intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane 🙃)

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Even the EPS has a spread.  Nature of tropical systems.  ICON takes a page from the GFS's playbook.  I am going to stay in place for over 24 hours and somehow still manage to intensify. Upwelling, what upwelling? 

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I am seriously considering flying down to FL on Monday to position for my first hurricane chase. I have chased tornados and supercells on the Plains for 25 years but never went for the eye of a landfalling hurricane. I would take a conservative approach for my first one, pick a hotel on the bay but not on a barrier beach, and stay there, not drive around, recognizing that as a result I might not end up in the eye itself. But you have to start somewhere right? It’s rare that I have the chance to drop everything and run off for 5 days but I should be able to do it next week. I don’t feel 100% committed to the idea yet because I am having trouble getting fully confident about the logistics - i.e., if my hotel is in an evacuation zone can I still stay there? Will I be able to buy food and water or will the shelves be cleared out? If I have to change position before the storm hits, will I be able to get gas?

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Man oh man. This thread will be busy the next 7 days. Even if this makes landfall a bit to our west, being on the Eastern side of tropical systems has not been kind to our region the last couple of years.

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17 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Man oh man. This thread will be busy the next 7 days. Even if this makes landfall a bit to our west, being on the Eastern side of tropical systems has not been kind to our region the last couple of years.

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Looking at the European ensembles, it no longer looks like a timing bias for stronger impacts here.  They actually lost the faster members on this run. More of how it interacts with the mid lat trof in the middle of next week.  If anything it looks like it is edging farther west (OP was OTS yesterday 12z) while the GFS has gave up on crushing Texas. 

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2 minutes ago, ebrk85 said:

Looks like a title change is in order as "Hermine" formed off the coast of Africa.  Which is bad news for the Gulf coast as "I" name storms have historically been a beast.

Thank-you! My phone went off and assumed it was that one.  I will change the thread title. 

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Soon To Be Ian
3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Looking at the European ensembles, it no longer looks like a timing bias for stronger impacts here.  They actually lost the faster members on this run. More of how it interacts with the mid lat trof in the middle of next week.  If anything it looks like it is edging farther west (OP was OTS yesterday 12z) while the GFS has gave up on crushing Texas. 

Good call on the separate thread for this storm.

Part of what's stopping this from heading right out to sea is the ridging building in near Bermuda - this has been more prominent on the Euro, but below is the last 6 runs of the GFS valid for Wednesday afternoon. Clear trend towards more ridging in that same area. My concern is if Ian only tracks over the lower third or so of Florida and is able to emerge with much of its structure intact. At that point it would be a larger threat for wherever it makes landfall again down the road, compared to if the storm tracks near the Florida Panhandle like the GFS is thinking.

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The trend is not the friend for the west coast of Florida, but a friendly eventual outcome from us if this holds.  The EPS still has a left hook with it, but for now with more westward solutions even if it comes into the Atlantic side of Florida, it would be a Carolina issue.

 

 

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Last night's recon mission found a very disjointed (not vertically stacked) system.  So some sort of system jumping should occur today(?) when Ian gets his act stacked. Still quite the difference and quite the impact difference for Florida.

 

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Major Hurricane Ian

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