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"The (rain/snow/cold/warmth) is just ten days away" thread


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I think the next possibility will be the storm after Christmas day bomb. It all depends on how far east that could air plunges. I suspect as usual it may get hung up on the apps. Euro ens mean is a heck of a lot colder than the euro itself and it looks like they have a storm sliding over us or underneath. Teleconnectors should be pretty favorable assuming this bombs and gets a  -nao going. I would think, if that low cuts off underneath that -nao, that should send the storm south of it and not cut it towards the lakes.

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I think the next possibility will be the storm after Christmas day bomb. It all depends on how far east that could air plunges. I suspect as usual it may get hung up on the apps. Euro ens mean is a heck of a lot colder than the euro itself and it looks like they have a storm sliding over us or underneath. Teleconnectors should be pretty favorable assuming this bombs and gets a  -nao going. I would think, if that low cuts off underneath that -nao, that should send the storm south of it and not cut it towards the lakes.

 

Or we could have a scenario where once that Low over the great lakes lifts out it takes the trof out of the east with it, since the mean trof in the means is out west still.

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still think you have watch the days after the christmas storm. I mean it could most certainly end up being warm/cutter, but the h5 look is pretty nice. You have a solid west base -nao with an h5 low cut off underneath it. If that low holds there, that storm is going to be forced underneath. This gfs run retrogrades that great lake low which then causes another cold push out west and se ridge which allows this storm to cut. Something to watch

 

 

 

 

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still think you have watch the days after the christmas storm. I mean it could most certainly end up being warm/cutter, but the h5 look is pretty nice. You have a solid west base -nao with an h5 low cut off underneath it. If that low holds there, that storm is going to be forced underneath. This gfs run retrogrades that great lake low which then causes another cold push out west and se ridge which allows this storm to cut. Something to watch

I was looking at that exact H5 frame earlier and was thinking if that shortwave could just separate itself; form the northern stream a little longer we could be in business.  I would think we would want the shortwave to trend weaker before it starts interact with the northern stream, no?  

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still think you have watch the days after the christmas storm. I mean it could most certainly end up being warm/cutter, but the h5 look is pretty nice. You have a solid west base -nao with an h5 low cut off underneath it. If that low holds there, that storm is going to be forced underneath. This gfs run retrogrades that great lake low which then causes another cold push out west and se ridge which allows this storm to cut. Something to watch

 

That would be a nice set-up without the SE ridge.

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still think you have watch the days after the christmas storm. I mean it could most certainly end up being warm/cutter, but the h5 look is pretty nice. You have a solid west base -nao with an h5 low cut off underneath it. If that low holds there, that storm is going to be forced underneath. This gfs run retrogrades that great lake low which then causes another cold push out west and se ridge which allows this storm to cut. Something to watch

This timeframe has had my attention for some time now. 

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This timeframe has had my attention for some time now. 

The h5 set up is solid with that huge -nao signature, but with that -pna you are going to get some semblance of a se ridge. If that huge low during christmas time could cut off from the flow, it would help level off the hgt rises and send the low track further south. Still tons of time for this to change. But it definitely has my interest as well as yours.

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I was looking at that exact H5 frame earlier and was thinking if that shortwave could just separate itself; form the northern stream a little longer we could be in business.  I would think we would want the shortwave to trend weaker before it starts interact with the northern stream, no?  

The problem that I see is, the mean trof is established in the center of the country and west. The cutoff low and the cold that rushes in behind it is just transient stuff. When that low lifts north and retros a little it takes the cold right out. That low is like the gateway to the cold air. If thats west of you, so will the cold air. But if it's east of you the cold air will be in place. The -pna is helping push the se ridge to. You would need that low to cut off over the 50/50 spot not over the great lakes. That would combat the height rises along the east coast with the 50/50 low. The -nao is there and looks solid. There is also some interaction with the northern stream when its in the center of the country which is helping to further amplify the se ridge. Still a ton of time left on this. 

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This is what I'm talking about in terms of it all comes down to where that big low Christmas eve cuts off and how big of a cut off it is. The check marks would be good for a wintry event for the following wave, the x's would be to warm. You can see on the ones with the check marks that h5 low gets cut off over se canada or Maine. You can see how it flattens out the se ridge and allows the follow up wave to take on a more east/ene track instead of due northeast into the lakes or through western PA. While the maps with the x's have that h5 low centered further west and it doesn't flatten out the flow over the east and the se ridge can just boil up. This was off the 12z gefs.

 

post-1-0-40130900-1418955748.gif

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That post Xmas storm is kinda puzzling how the euro handles it.

You have this panel:

1da1291953b5bae503b4e1146220675a.jpg

Nice 562dm height block over southern/western Greenland/davis straights block..granted it's a wee bit south of where you would like to see it. But c'mon

251348239f06b9736b9defdfe38590f2.jpg

This panel, the storm in the Midwest is driving straight into that block. Even when a Rex type block in the Atlantic.

83f2c878064cb383924cdd92d86c2f49.jpg

That block should be sufficient to stop that shortwave from driving into the lakes/Canadian region... Obviously verbatim this run.

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That post Xmas storm is kinda puzzling how the euro handles it.

You have this panel:

Nice 562dm height block over southern/western Greenland/davis straights block..granted it's a wee bit south of where you would like to see it. But c'mon

This panel, the storm in the Midwest is driving straight into that block. Even when a Rex type block in the Atlantic.

That block should be sufficient to stop that shortwave from driving into the lakes/Canadian region... Obviously verbatim this run.

It cutting makes sense to me, just not sure that far west. The problem is that great lakes low doesn't cu off under the block it actually gets absorbed into another h5 low in central canada, which then in turn takes all the cold air with it and promotes a se ridge, since the mean trof is out west still. The key to that storm is getting that great lake low to cut off under that block to combat the se ridge flexing its muscles. The -pna is helping get that se ridge going to. Unless there is a 50/50 low that is going to cut.

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Gotta also watch that dec 28-29 period with that front. Both gfs and euro want to form a wave along that cold front. Euro is warmer and brings the wave up through pa while gfs is to our south

These often trend stronger toward time 0.

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These often trend stronger toward time 0.

Need that lead s/w to get out ahead of it faster to drag the front through. Though there definitely will be resistance with that se ridge and as tony notes, models love to just blast cold through to east coast. It's a long shot but worth noting.

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