Rainshadow Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 It is an unfortunate confluence of events. But it is sadly doable. Not a GFS fantasy, it may finally get the last laugh on me. The country is burning and northwest flow had saved us up to now. It has been dry. Another stinkin underperformer yesterday. PHL ASOS bias has been warm (makes it easier, but not the reason, it is not Newark). Last time PHL hit 100F was 7/18/2012. Last night's OP EC lowered the dew points so much, it was a scorcher (more so in NJ). Sad relief may be "only" reaching around 90F come Tuesday. I'd hope this would be a jinx thread, but unlike snow threads started too soon, the best case scenario weekend outcome would be mid to upper 90s, not upper 80s. This upcoming Wednesday/Thursday no can of corn either. Some upper 90s will likely occur. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 45 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: It is an unfortunate confluence of events. But it is sadly doable. Not a GFS fantasy, it may finally get the last laugh on me. The country is burning and northwest flow had saved us up to now. It has been dry. Another stinkin underperformer yesterday. PHL ASOS bias has been warm (makes it easier, but not the reason, it is not Newark). Last time PHL hit 100F was 7/18/2012. Last night's OP EC lowered the dew points so much, it was a scorcher (more so in NJ). Sad relief may be "only" reaching around 90F come Tuesday. I'd hope this would be a jinx thread, but unlike snow threads started too soon, the best case scenario weekend outcome would be mid to upper 90s, not upper 80s. This upcoming Wednesday/Thursday no can of corn either. Some upper 90s will likely occur. And to add to all that. climatologically this is the hottest week or two stretch of summer, on average. How's that for timing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Any hopes of rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Any hopes of rain? There's always hope. Those hopes will just be dashed everytime. 😩 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Any hopes of rain? I thought the pattern looked better after the weekend for rain. But that was from a couple of days ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 This is the saddest thread yet. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, cbelke said: There's always hope. Those hopes will just be dashed everytime. 😩 Ha. It’s been a horrible summer for convection locally. Not very typical of La Niña summers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icicleman Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: This is the saddest thread yet. No problem. Find (or make) some shade. Find (this is the hard part) someone you like to talk to. Fill a baby pool (inflatable is fine) with cold water and sit with your feet in it. Maybe (probably) have a drink (or two). All weather is good weather. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Yeah, I don't see any "organized" rain threats til..........early next week IF the heatwave breaks. And that could be another hit/miss event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, icicleman said: No problem. Find (or make) some shade. Find (this is the hard part) someone you like to talk to. Fill a baby pool (inflatable is fine) with cold water and sit with your feet in it. Maybe (probably) have a drink (or two). All weather is good weather. I have my hot tub sitting around 85, might go sit in it to cool down this week. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 My heart goes out to you guys down there. We've had a beautiful summer in Mass. Low dews and we've only topped 90 twice all summer. That, of course, is about to change with highs above 90 predicted for the next six days and dews in the mid 60s. Like you, we have been quite dry. The town has issued a ban on all outdoor watering. Got a soaker last night with a T-storm. First rainfall in excess of 1/2-inch since June 27. Before that, I have to go back to June 9 for a decent rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Any hopes of rain? It's amazing how everything has missed our cnj area the past 6 weeks or so 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 78 and 75 for forecasted highs this weekend here lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 78 and 75 for forecasted highs this weekend here lol 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 GGEM, ICON, GFS all 100F or greater for PHL on Sunday now. UK broke their all time record temperature. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 hours ago, PreserveJon said: My heart goes out to you guys down there. We've had a beautiful summer in Mass. Low dews and we've only topped 90 twice all summer. That, of course, is about to change with highs above 90 predicted for the next six days and dews in the mid 60s. Like you, we have been quite dry. The town has issued a ban on all outdoor watering. Got a soaker last night with a T-storm. First rainfall in excess of 1/2-inch since June 27. Before that, I have to go back to June 9 for a decent rain. It’s really hasn’t been that hot down here until recently. This is really the first time we have had high dews 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Looped below are dew points in 6-hour increments for Sunday. I could be wrong but for some reason I'm skeptical about dew points suddenly dropping so much in the late afternoon. Is the model just thinking dry air aloft will mix to the surface due to the heating of the day? Because otherwise I'd expect this overall pattern (broad southwesterly flow) to bring dew points 70+ up north across our region, which would in turn actually make it tougher to get up to 100. Just some food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 58 minutes ago, ACwx said: Looped below are dew points in 6-hour increments for Sunday. I could be wrong but for some reason I'm skeptical about dew points suddenly dropping so much in the late afternoon. Is the model just thinking dry air aloft will mix to the surface due to the heating of the day? Because otherwise I'd expect this overall pattern (broad southwesterly flow) to bring dew points 70+ up north across our region, which would in turn actually make it tougher to get up to 100. Just some food for thought. Sat looks like a brief change NW-W flow locally at the surface, which would provide compressional downslope heating? Not sure about Sunday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 I'm glad I'm going to the Delaware & Maryland beaches for a week starting Saturday, but not sure it will feel much better there either - hot everywhere! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 hours ago, ACwx said: Looped below are dew points in 6-hour increments for Sunday. I could be wrong but for some reason I'm skeptical about dew points suddenly dropping so much in the late afternoon. Is the model just thinking dry air aloft will mix to the surface due to the heating of the day? Because otherwise I'd expect this overall pattern (broad southwesterly flow) to bring dew points 70+ up north across our region, which would in turn actually make it tougher to get up to 100. Just some food for thought. We will see. The dew point drop would seal it. Models not as good with dews as other parameters. With PHL ASOS running 1-2F too high, might not matter. PHL should never have the same high as the concrete USCG station in downtown PHL and it has. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 20, 2022 Report Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: We will see. The dew point drop would seal it. Models not as good with dews as other parameters. With PHL ASOS running 1-2F too high, might not matter. PHL should never have the same high as the concrete USCG station in downtown PHL and it has. Think it’s time to tweet Nws mt holly to have them look at philly intl airport 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 20, 2022 Report Share Posted July 20, 2022 7 hours ago, Allsnow said: It’s really hasn’t been that hot down here until recently. This is really the first time we have had high dews Yeah, been a very tame summer and we are already losing 2 minutes of daylight a day. 😭 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted July 20, 2022 Report Share Posted July 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Think it’s time to tweet Nws mt holly to have them look at philly intl airport Mt Holly is horrendous, the average day time error is now 4 degrees too warm over the past 28 days, worse than Newark. RDG +3.4, PHL +3.0....why do so many offical sites appear to be running significantly too warm during the day??? Who knew that PNE would now be the sensor of reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted July 20, 2022 Report Share Posted July 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, Parsley said: Yeah, been a very tame summer and we are already losing 2 minutes of daylight a day. 😭 1:30 currently, 2 mins doesn't come until 8/2. Let's not jump the gun, still enjoying daylight during the early morning dog walks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said: Mt Holly is horrendous, the average day time error is now 4 degrees too warm over the past 28 days, worse than Newark. RDG +3.4, PHL +3.0....why do so many offical sites appear to be running significantly too warm during the day??? Who knew that PNE would now be the sensor of reason. I should drive by VAY one of these days. You can see the sensor from the road. I didn't look at my official high for today. But the back up to the back up LaCrosse had 92F and it has been running in tandem with the official Nimbus. VAY 94F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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