tombo82685 Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, ErieWX said: Decent probability for an SSW somewhere in the mid winter timeframe Maybe I’m reading this wrong but that looks like an average PV strength to me. I don’t see any indication there of a SSW. For a ssw you want it below 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Maybe I’m reading this wrong but that looks like an average PV strength to me. I don’t see any indication there of a SSW. For a ssw you want it below 0 It’s a low res ensemble mean showing below climo normals 4-5 months out. Not even close to a slam dunk by any means but it’s not a bad look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieO Posted September 15, 2022 Report Share Posted September 15, 2022 I thought you guys might find this interesting. I saw it posted by Jesse Ferrell from AccuWx on Twitter.https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2022 9 hours ago, JamieO said: I thought you guys might find this interesting. I saw it posted by Jesse Ferrell from AccuWx on Twitter.https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ Nice write-up, did a good job of covering limitations. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2022 On 9/15/2022 at 6:19 AM, Chubbs said: Nice write-up, did a good job of covering limitations. NOAA taking note?? 😏 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 11th consecutive October of above average snowfall extent right on schedule.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: 11th consecutive October of above average snowfall extent right on schedule.... Lock it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Perhaps this is the October that ends below normal for @Rainshadow stat on the following day winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Perhaps this is the October that ends below normal for @Rainshadow stat on the following day winter Coolest October since 2009, 2011 & 2015 not a reach at the moment. Enso matches not great. Not as common to have a cool October during nina(s). Though I could see 2000-01 making the cut if November is also cool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Is there some sort of statistical correlation with cold octobers and winter snowfall or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, ErieWX said: Is there some sort of statistical correlation with cold octobers and winter snowfall or something? I think Tony has said you need both October and November to be BN to increase the odds of a BN winter. Snow is another matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Accuwx winter forecast not great fwiw. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, ErieWX said: Is there some sort of statistical correlation with cold octobers and winter snowfall or something? I did a paper when an intern in NYC that saw a correlation between Oct & Nov temps and ensuing winter temperatures. This covered 1900-1987. Positive correlation, warmth begot warmth, cold begot cold I'd say about 65-70% of the time. Part of the problem now is that October is warming and I am having issues how to best account for this. I think Cohen whether he wants to admit it or not is running into the same problem with October snowfall extent in Siberia. When every October is warm or every October has above normal snow extent how do you differentiate now with what worked better in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 hours ago, ErieWX said: Is there some sort of statistical correlation with cold octobers and winter snowfall or something? I found the thread and the 30 yr period table. When I tried to open it, it wouldn't on my PC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 44 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I found the thread and the 30 yr period table. When I tried to open it, it wouldn't on my PC. Detailed and useful data. Last winter was interesting, scorching October and December that drove a warmer winter overall, but not an overall shutout as winter was salvaged Jan-March. Really goes to show warming potential in early winter (December was +7 here) that I’d rather forget about and also how things can change halfway through the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 hours ago, ErieWX said: Detailed and useful data. Last winter was interesting, scorching October and December that drove a warmer winter overall, but not an overall shutout as winter was salvaged Jan-March. Really goes to show warming potential in early winter (December was +7 here) that I’d rather forget about and also how things can change halfway through the season. There are some dogs of winter that happen with any enso phase, but the ones that stand out as being most likely to occur are during an extremely strong nino (not a nino that just makes it to strong ala 1957-8, 2009-10) or a strong nina. The latter I am not sure without some climo adjustment by CPC came be realized in real time. Otherwise there are extenuating circumstances that can enhance (SSW's) or detract (MJO living in phase 4) for any given winter that really can't be outlooked before winter starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 11 hours ago, Rainshadow said: I did a paper when an intern in NYC that saw a correlation between Oct & Nov temps and ensuing winter temperatures. This covered 1900-1987. Positive correlation, warmth begot warmth, cold begot cold I'd say about 65-70% of the time. Part of the problem now is that October is warming and I am having issues how to best account for this. I think Cohen whether he wants to admit it or not is running into the same problem with October snowfall extent in Siberia. When every October is warm or every October has above normal snow extent how do you differentiate now with what worked better in the past. PHL Octobers. Could use regression or a Loess fit (below) to account for warming trend. Looking at recent years vs the Loess fit gives following buckets: "warm" 2021+2017, "normal" 2019+2016, "cool" 2020+2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 48 minutes ago, Chubbs said: PHL Octobers. Could use regression or a Loess fit (below) to account for warming trend. Looking at recent years vs the Loess fit gives following buckets: "warm" 2021+2017, "normal" 2019+2016, "cool" 2020+2018 Wow no wonder it feels like fall is only 2 weeks long before winter sets in...maybe this Oct will buck the trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 Anyone woth Weatherbell bother to look at the October Cansips forecast? Tropical Tidbits usually updates on the 1st of the month with the 0z run of the 1st but not this time. Fyi, searching for the Cansips on the web got me a link to a UK site that showed the first 2 forecast periods to be BN and the rest way AN. But it's a crummy site and I'm not sure if the forecast periods are even months and, if so, if the 1st month is October or November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: PHL Octobers. Could use regression or a Loess fit (below) to account for warming trend. Looking at recent years vs the Loess fit gives following buckets: "warm" 2021+2017, "normal" 2019+2016, "cool" 2020+2018 I have been moving the goal posts and trying to concentrate on the last 30 years only, dividing those Octobers into thirds. Behind that it is more of an eye test as how far off the POR mean the October falls. Into the 1990s that mean was pretty stable and now…. What site generated that graph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Anyone woth Weatherbell bother to look at the October Cansips forecast? Tropical Tidbits usually updates on the 1st of the month with the 0z run of the 1st but not this time. Fyi, searching for the Cansips on the web got me a link to a UK site that showed the first 2 forecast periods to be BN and the rest way AN. But it's a crummy site and I'm not sure if the forecast periods are even months and, if so, if the 1st month is October or November. Near normal Dec, Jan. Slightly above Feb, Mar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I have been moving the goal posts and trying to concentrate on the last 30 years only, dividing those Octobers into thirds. Behind that it is more of an eye test as how far off the POR mean the October falls. Into the 1990s that mean was pretty stable and now…. What site generated that graph? Like this site for obs plotting https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 59 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Like this site for obs plotting https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Never clicked on that option. Whoever created this page has a weird way of thinking. Or my way of thinking is weird. It is tough to find (for me) what I am looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Anyone woth Weatherbell bother to look at the October Cansips forecast? Tropical Tidbits usually updates on the 1st of the month with the 0z run of the 1st but not this time. Fyi, searching for the Cansips on the web got me a link to a UK site that showed the first 2 forecast periods to be BN and the rest way AN. But it's a crummy site and I'm not sure if the forecast periods are even months and, if so, if the 1st month is October or November. I looked at the 500mb anomalies vs the temperature profiles and fwiw (probably $0.04) it is the traditional nina starting off quickly in December and having a torchy February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: I looked at the 500mb anomalies vs the temperature profiles and fwiw (probably $0.04) it is the traditional nina starting off quickly in December and having a torchy February. I can live with that up here versus BWI land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.