Chubbs Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 The June Cansips reversed last months trend of less nina next winter. Strong pdo- also. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted July 2, 2022 Report Share Posted July 2, 2022 On 7/1/2022 at 6:55 AM, Chubbs said: The June Cansips reversed last months trend of less nina next winter. Strong pdo- also. We'll see. And as a result, dishes out a crappy winter. Thankfully, too early to worry about. But Heisey, you should start worrying now. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted July 10, 2022 Report Share Posted July 10, 2022 On 7/2/2022 at 10:55 AM, Mitchnick said: And as a result, dishes out a crappy winter. Thankfully, too early to worry about. But Heisey, you should start worrying now. 😉 I’m all in 2023-24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted July 13, 2022 Report Share Posted July 13, 2022 On 7/10/2022 at 9:45 AM, Heisenberg said: I’m all in 2023-24 You young guys can toss winters. He!!, I did it many years. But once you get older you gotta put all your chips in for the coming winter no matter what the analogs, conditions or progs. The saving grace for me now is that 90%+ of the time I'll beat the warm snow hole of BWI and have a chance at huge winters while BWI totals single digits for the season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 On 7/13/2022 at 6:05 AM, Mitchnick said: You young guys can toss winters. He!!, I did it many years. But once you get older you gotta put all your chips in for the coming winter no matter what the analogs, conditions or progs. The saving grace for me now is that 90%+ of the time I'll beat the warm snow hole of BWI and have a chance at huge winters while BWI totals single digits for the season. GFS & EPS supposed to get a big upgrade this fall right. What are the deets? Will it be similar to how they had the GFS parallel before 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted July 24, 2022 Report Share Posted July 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Heisenberg said: GFS & EPS supposed to get a big upgrade this fall right. What are the deets? Will it be similar to how they had the GFS parallel before Ughhh, the last Euro "upgrade" was a downgrade imho with it's incessant deepening of anticylones around us. That said, although meaningful upgrades are always welcome, we will be having to guess what kind of adjustments will be necessary on both models until we have at least 1 season under our belts. Otoh, we already know the GFS will be too cold in the winter and too warm in the summer, so there's that I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 1, 2022 Report Share Posted August 1, 2022 August run of the Cansips far from inspiring for the winter. Starting in November, only gets worse: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022080100&fh=3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talonsmith Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 Does that usually show blocking? If so, ugh another bland winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, talonsmith said: Does that usually show blocking? If so, ugh another bland winter. I do not mean this in a rude way, but those outlooks this far out are worthless. I would weight them a bit more once we get into November 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 On 8/1/2022 at 4:59 AM, Mitchnick said: August run of the Cansips far from inspiring for the winter. Starting in November, only gets worse: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022080100&fh=3 Brutal! Oh well. Looks like another winter with strong Pv and no pac/nao help. Below avg snowfall from Tombo south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2022 Report Share Posted August 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brutal! Oh well. Looks like another winter with strong Pv and no pac/nao help. Below avg snowfall from Tombo south 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted August 4, 2022 Report Share Posted August 4, 2022 Im not a religious person, but if there is a hell I bet it’s early August all year round. First step to feeling like winter is football season, and we’re getting there…Based on what I’m reading from some pros our best shot might be December. If I’m remembering correctly last December we had awesome blocking, but nothing else would cooperate. Maybe we’ll get lucky this year who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 4, 2022 Report Share Posted August 4, 2022 place your bets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 4, 2022 Report Share Posted August 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Qtown Snow said: place your bets BUST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 4, 2022 Report Share Posted August 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, Parsley said: BUST. This almost looks like a The Onion winter outlook. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 4, 2022 Report Share Posted August 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: This almost looks like a The Onion winter outlook. That’s what I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2022 Latest NMME. A weak nina that peaks early. Nada by late winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 8, 2022 Report Share Posted August 8, 2022 saw this on twit, fwiw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 8, 2022 Report Share Posted August 8, 2022 8 hours ago, Chubbs said: Latest NMME. A weak nina that peaks early. Nada by late winter. March will rock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: saw this on twit, fwiw Tossing, too much like last months forecast 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 9, 2022 Report Share Posted August 9, 2022 17 hours ago, Rainshadow said: March will rock. March is the new December and April the new November. It's a topsy-turvy world we live in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 9, 2022 Report Share Posted August 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: March is the new December and April the new November. It's a topsy-turvy world we live in. Yes. We are in the world of 8 second tape delays so no curses get on the air... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 9, 2022 Report Share Posted August 9, 2022 I think people need to not look at straight Nina climo, but what is the sample size of 3 straight Nina’s In a row? How did those winters pan out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 9, 2022 Report Share Posted August 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I think people need to not look at straight Nina climo, but what is the sample size of 3 straight Nina’s In a row? How did those winters pan out 2000-1 wasn’t bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted August 9, 2022 Report Share Posted August 9, 2022 They were volatile for the most part. Yeah below normal but locally some places way above who got lucky last 2 yrs. Last year even had plenty of cold. Think it’s way too early to act like ‘19-‘20 is returning which wasn’t even a Nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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