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Meteorological Winter 2022-23 Outlook Discussion - Analogs Posted


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On 7/1/2022 at 6:55 AM, Chubbs said:

The June Cansips reversed last months trend of less nina next winter. Strong pdo- also. We'll see.

cansips.gif

And as a result, dishes out a crappy winter. Thankfully, too early to worry about. But Heisey, you should start worrying now. 😉

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On 7/10/2022 at 9:45 AM, Heisenberg said:

I’m all in 2023-24 

You young guys can toss winters. He!!, I  did it many years. But once you get older you gotta put all your chips in for the coming winter no matter what the analogs,  conditions or progs. The saving grace for me now is that 90%+ of the time I'll beat the warm snow hole of BWI and have a chance at huge winters while BWI totals single digits for the season.

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On 7/13/2022 at 6:05 AM, Mitchnick said:

You young guys can toss winters. He!!, I  did it many years. But once you get older you gotta put all your chips in for the coming winter no matter what the analogs,  conditions or progs. The saving grace for me now is that 90%+ of the time I'll beat the warm snow hole of BWI and have a chance at huge winters while BWI totals single digits for the season.

GFS & EPS supposed to get a big upgrade this fall right. What are the deets? Will it be similar to how they had the GFS parallel before

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5 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

GFS & EPS supposed to get a big upgrade this fall right. What are the deets? Will it be similar to how they had the GFS parallel before

Ughhh, the last Euro "upgrade" was a  downgrade imho with it's incessant deepening of anticylones around us. 

That said, although meaningful upgrades are always welcome, we will be having to guess what kind of adjustments will be necessary on both models  until we have at least 1 season under our belts. Otoh, we already know the GFS will be too cold in the winter and too warm in the summer, so there's that I  suppose.

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1 hour ago, talonsmith said:

Does that usually show blocking? If so, ugh another bland winter.

 

 

I do not mean this in a rude way, but those outlooks this far out are worthless. I would weight them a bit more once we get into November 

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On 8/1/2022 at 4:59 AM, Mitchnick said:

August run of the Cansips far from inspiring for the winter.

Starting in November, only gets worse:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022080100&fh=3

Brutal! Oh well. Looks like another winter with strong Pv and no pac/nao help. Below avg snowfall from Tombo south 

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Im not a religious person, but if there is a hell I bet it’s early August all year round.

First step to feeling like winter is football season, and we’re getting there…Based on what I’m reading from some pros our best shot might be December. If I’m remembering correctly last December we had awesome blocking, but nothing else would cooperate. Maybe we’ll get lucky this year who knows. 

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They were volatile for the most part. Yeah below normal but locally some places way above who got lucky last 2 yrs. Last year even had plenty of cold. Think it’s way too early to act like ‘19-‘20 is returning which wasn’t even a Nina

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Meteorological Winter 2022-23 Outlook Discussion - Analogs Posted

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