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Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion - Otherwise Known As Above Normal Heights, Temps, Etc.


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00z/24th Ensemble Comparison 5/24-6/8.  Normal 850mb temp around +12C. 

More 90s On The Way To Welcome Meteorological Summer & Then Relief?

 As for Memorial Day weekend itself, I missed that vomitous GFS run.  Regardless we are getting within skill time where eastern NOAM trofiness has validity.  So while we are not in last year's mode, the idea of a dry weekend is not holding much water at this point.  This has not changed unfortunately.

Increased confidence of more above normal temperatures and likely 90s in the middle of next week keying on June 1st & 2nd as warmest days.  I have to check the teleconnection correlations for shorter wavelength June, but if this was winter I'd say a colder pattern looks solid.  As for what follows 6/2, we are edging into model skill time and the changes in the teleconnections precede this with the -NAO leading the way.  The EPS has remained consistent with this while the GEFS & GEPS discovered it now.  May explain why the GEFS lost its until September torch for this night anyway.  So yes I am feeling slightly more confident than average that a period of cooler/near normal weather will follow next week's torchiness.  If you look at MJO Phase 7 (it is suppose to be active), it is pretty confident about western heat. I don't know about 4-6 days of below, but I'll take any in meteorological summer.

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 11;  PNA Day 9; AO Day 8.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  more positive NAO & PNA, Neutral AO

GEFS: (new, near term bust) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 25th, above normal anomalies May 26th thru Jun 3rd, (new) below normal anomalies Jun 4th thru Jun 7th, near normal anomalies Jun 8th (end of run).  

GEPS: (day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 25th, (4 days longer) above normal anomalies May 26th thru Jun 2nd, (new) below normal anomalies Jun 3rd thru Jun 8th (end of run).

EPS: (day longer) Below normal anomalies thru May 25th, (5 days longer) above normal anomalies May 26th thru Jun 3rd, below normal anomalies Jun 4th thru Jun 6th, near normal anomalies Jun 7th. (end of run).   

 

NAEFS Week 2: Period of June 1st thru June 8th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, cooling.

  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:         +EPO thru 5/28 (5 days shorter);  neg 5/29-5/31;  pos 6/1-6/7;  neut 6/8

                   -PNA thru 5/28 (day longer); neg 5/29-5/30 (svrl days shorter); pos 5/31-6/8                        

                   +NAO thru 5/29; (new) neg 5/30-6/8

GEPS:        +EPO thru 5/28 (7 days shorter); neg 5/29-5/31; pos 6/1-6/7; neg 6/8

                    +PNA thru 5/27 (day shorter);  neg 5/28-5/29 (same); pos 5/30-6/5 (5 days longer); neg 6/6-6/8

                   +NAO thru 5/27 (5 days shorter);  neg 5/28-6/8

EPS:           +EPO thru 5/28 (5 days shorter); neg 5/29-6/1; pos 6/2-6/7

                   +PNA thru 5/27 (same); neg 5/28-5/29 (4 days shorter); pos 5/28-6/7

                   +NAO thru 5/27 (coming closest?); neg 5/28-6/7

WPO:          Still all negative

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Decent Convection Phases 1 & 3. Neg Vel Ptnl Phase 2

GEFS  COD Phase 2 to Phase 8;  EPS COD Phase 2 to Phase 8 (runs ends 6/7).

MVentrice Phase 4 to Phase 5. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 around 10th percentile & Wave 2 around 50th percentile;  EC see ya next winter.

SPV/NAM:  Trop now; torch around 6/1 

image.png.d1210d25ad3fac57a2daa3be7b9390bb.png

 

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On 5/25/2022 at 6:58 AM, tombo82685 said:

Looks like another 90s shot next week as we get a good southwest flow out ahead of next cold front 

This is currently the best of the lot for here.  Euro has more of a backdoor push Wednesday.  Mr. Extreme GFS now that I abandoned raining on you for four consecutive days (oh I will still work on not one, but two, two tropical systems), I will switch to 90ing you for four consecutive days.  Either way it is a hot finish/start to the end of May beginning of June.  What follows though is holding too.

 

ec.JPG

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4 hours ago, Bananashadow said:

Back/forth Wednesday with the 90s near PHL.  Best chance west or southwest.  Tuesday 90s in the bag.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-4106400.png

I'll take Long Island's forecasted temperatures for Wednesday and the rest of the summer 😁.

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00z/30th Ensemble Comparison 5/30-6/14.  Normal 850mb temp around +12C. 

Not A Bad Start To June...

 All things considered.  Our one or two day(s) of 90s heat ridge pinches itself off Labrador and establishes a -NAO west regime/blocky pattern.  So the time it takes for unravel, it gives us a relatively cool/normal start to June starting on the 2nd/3rd.  I have to say from a six day look back, the EPS was pretty solid at maintaining continuity and it finds itself this morning between I have to go one extreme or the other GEFS and I only know above normal anomalies in summer GEPS.  Active MJO through cooler phases corroborates this.  Ensembles differ on the unraveling and the changes to the teleconnections as we edge into beyond skill time.  But confidence remains greater than normal that we won't maintain torchiness through the first calendar week of June. Beyond that, there were can kicks, so we will see what happens as we look at the double digit days in the month.  Also with the MJO outlook remaining active through Phase 8, the tropical activity we are seeing on the models is no longer pie-in-the-sky. There is assistance aloft.  Also with the NAO outlooked to be negative, the escape to the east is not going to be as easy. 

I looked at the June temperature correlations for the teleconnection indices.  The NAO is a slight reverse for JUne, the PNA is still the same although weaker.  I am not sure if EP or NP correlates to the EPO.  Maybe neither does.  But the EP shows a reversal.  It does not match what is going on with the ensembles, but it is more -NAO west/PNA driven regardless. 

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 11;  PNA Day 9; AO Day 9

Recent Verification Tendency:  neutral NAO, more negative PNA & AO

 

GEFS: (day shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Jun 2nd, (2 days longer) below normal anomalies Jun 3rd thru Jun 9th, above normal anomalies Jun 10th thru Jun 14th (end of run).  

GEPS: (0.5 day longer) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 3rd, (much shorter) below normal anomalies Jun 4th, near normal anomalies Jun 5th, above normal anomalies Jun 6th thru Jun 14th (end of run).

EPS: (0.5 day shorter) Above normal anomalies into Jun 3rd, (same) below normal anomalies Jun 4th thru Jun 6th, (same) near normal anomalies Jun 7th & Jun 8th, above normal anomalies June 9th thru Jun 12th, near normal anomalies Jun 13th. (end of run).   

 

NAEFS Week 2: Period of June 7th thru June 14th.  Moderate confidence of above normal temperatures, warming.

  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:         -EPO thru 6/8 (nothing like last week's look);  pos 6/8-6/14 (total can kick)

                   +PNA thru 6/13 (consistent); neg 6/14                        

                   -NAO thru 6/7 (day shorter); pos 6/8-6/14

GEPS:         -EPO thru 6/8 (8 days longer); pos 6/9-6/14

                   +PNA thru 6/12 (can kick week longer);  neg 6/13-6/14

                   -NAO (similar)

EPS:           -EPO thru 6/5 (4 days longer); pos 6/6-6/13

                   +PNA (consistent)

                   -NAO (similar)

WPO:          Still all negative, getting closer to normal late

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Decent Phase 5

GEFS  Phase 6 to Phase 8;  EPS Phase 6 to Phase 8 (runs ends 6/13).

MVentrice Phase 6 to Phase 8. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 around 50th percentile & Wave 2 increasing to 90th percentile;  EC see ya next winter.

SPV/NAM:  N/A (Holiday weekend?) 

image.png.d1210d25ad3fac57a2daa3be7b9390bb.png

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Yes, Euro looks like a climo default.  But there is no agreed upon signal about unusually warm weather.  Conversely the GGEM likes to default to warm too this time of year.  So if the GFS is even warmer, I hear the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale....cheap.

 

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I will take near normal 70s as long as I’m not getting rained out. I’m at that point in the season with an “anything with sun, we take” mindset, notwithstanding temps 

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Ensembles look rather wet as we go into mid-June. Whew, I was getting a little worried that my lawn would go a day without being soggy and dark green! 

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00z/3rd Ensemble Comparison 6/3-6/18.  Normal 850mb temp around +13C. 

Enjoy This Rex Configuration As Long As It Lasts...

 The Rex block and its slow unraveling is going to be our friend for as long as it can persist and slowly unravel.  It's effects are two fold.  First it initially blocks the closed low from retreating northward maintaining a cold pool of air over the Northern Plains.  Then as it is predicted to unravel, it maintains a Rex type configuration of above normal heights across northern Canada and below normal heights across the northern tier of the United States.  At the very least (yes dollar smoothed) it is causing the heat ridge to remain elongnated across the southern United States without a chance for much ridging.  Zonal in June is not cool.  But zonal in June means air mass changes some of which will be drier and as ErieWx posted keep rain chances going from time to time.  This pattern almost fits the MJO Phase 8 look below perfectly.  Yes in la la land the seeds for change are there with the PNA & NAO.  Of course the OP GFS jumps on it the soonest (can't keep us from forecasting 100s for long).  But we will see how long it takes.  Hotter MJO phases wait in the wings if it remains active.

Current MJO phases continue to assist tropical activity.  Maybe too soon for Cape Verde, but it is not going to hurt anything trying to develop farther west.

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 11;  PNA Day 9; AO Day 9

Recent Verification Tendency:  more negative NAO & AO, more positive PNA

 

GEFS: (3 days shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 6th, (new) near normal anomalies Jun 7th & Jun 8th, (split up, shorter) above normal anomalies Jun 9th, (new) below normal anomalies Jun 10th & Jun 11th, near normal anomalies Jun 12th, above normal anomalies Jun 13th thru Jun 16th, near normal anomalies Jun 17th & Jun 18th (end of run).  

GEPS: (cooler bust) Primarily below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 6th, (now split) above normal anomalies later Jun 6th thru Jun 9th, (new) below normal anomalies Jun 10th & Jun 11th, above normal anomalies Jun 12th, near normal anomalies Jun 13th, above normal anomalies Jun 14th thru Jun 18th (end of run).

EPS: (day shorter) Primarily below normal anomalies thru Jun 5th, (warmer) above normal anomalies Jun 6th into Jun 9th, (flip) below normal anomalies Jun 9th and Jun 10th, above normal anomalies Jun 11th into Jun 13th, near normal anomalies Jun 14th & Jun 15th, above normal anomalies Jun 16th & Jun 17th. (end of run).   

 

NAEFS Week 2: Period of June 11th thru June 18th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, steady.

  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:         -EPO thru 6/8 (same);  pos 6/9-6/14 (same); neg 6/15-6/18

                   +PNA thru 6/12 (day shorter); neg 6/13-6/18                        

                   -NAO thru 6/8 (day longer); pos 6/9-6/18

GEPS:         -EPO (mainly) thru 6/7 (day shorter); pos 6/8-6/16; neg 6/17-6/18

                   +PNA thru 6/13 (day longer);  neg 6/14-6/18

                   -NAO thru 6/7 (7 days shorter); pos 6/8-6/18

EPS:           -EPO thru 6/4 (day shorter); pos 6/5-6/6; (new split) neg 6/7-6/8; pos 6/9-6/17

                   +PNA thru 6/13 (day shorter); neg 6/14-6/17

                   -NAO thru 6/8 (6 days shorter); pos 6/9-6/15; neg 6/16-6/17

WPO:          Still all negative

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Decent Phases 7 & 8

GEFS  Phase 7 to Phase 1;  EPS Phase 7 to Phase 1 (runs ends 6/16 or 6/17).

MVentrice Phases 7 & 8 to Phase 1. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 around 50th percentile & Wave 2 50th to 90th to 50th percentile;  EC see ya next winter.

SPV/NAM:  Decent trop cool shot now, weaker one 6/15ish 

image.png.d1210d25ad3fac57a2daa3be7b9390bb.png

 

eps-fast_z500a_namer_4.png

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It is a matter of time, but given the MJO I am hoping that the GFS/GEFS for the umpteenth time is jumping the gun (it is coming) with this and of course I expect the 18z run today to churn out a 100F. 

 

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13 hours ago, Bananashadow said:

It is a matter of time, but given the MJO I am hoping that the GFS/GEFS for the umpteenth time is jumping the gun (it is coming) with this and of course I expect the 18z run today to churn out a 100F.

 

Missed by that much...

 

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Trying to head to Hersheypark on Saturday...maybe I'll luck out and the rain will miss to the south? Definitely hoodie weather even if it's dry though. Euro says the Poconos don't make it out of the upper 50s

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_35.png

ecmwf_T2m_neus_36.png

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On 6/4/2022 at 12:14 PM, ErieWX said:

I have my hopes up and fingers crossed that maybe we finally hit the “kill switch” on La Niña, but I’m not going to hold my breath. 

June NMME forecast. Weaker winter nina compared to last month's forecast. Also peaks early. We'll see.

th.nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

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On 6/7/2022 at 8:34 PM, ACwx said:

Trying to head to Hersheypark on Saturday...maybe I'll luck out and the rain will miss to the south? Definitely hoodie weather even if it's dry though. Euro says the Poconos don't make it out of the upper 50s

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_neus_35.png

ecmwf_T2m_neus_36.png

Close call for Saturday.  If only they could have moved the park to Williamsport.  :(

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00z/10th Ensemble Comparison 6/10-6/25.  Normal 850mb temp around +14C. 

Northern Plains Burn, We Still Get Reprieves.

The last vestige of the Rex block exits to our northeast this weekend.  Close enough to induce some wet weather.  Then the building heat in the central Conus makes a pass at us this week.  Just when the oh no here we go again feeling starts to set in, the more progressive pattern digs another trof into the west coast and pumps up the ridge in the central Conus again. This favors the development of eastern NOAM troffing again and cooler weather.  This is just starting to work its way into the we have skill time for Father's Day Weekend, so we will have to see if it holds.  Some of it is also predicated on -NAO ridging.  Look at map below, don't get how this is an "index" +NAO.  Anyway the GEFS has the greatest amplitude (near Barney departures) while the GEPS has the least troffiness. Thus the coolest vs warmest solutions.  I would opt for the EPS since it seems that when it is in the middle of these two, it usually works best.  MJO phases 1-4 are not necessarily warm for us, but poorer summer correlation or not they do get warmer if we keep on progressing.  It would be nice if the GFS has another Trop shot correct for the last week of the month, but  this is even beyond la la land.  Have to watch teleconnections this time of year as wavelengths are shorter.  The -PNA is concentrating the heat for now over the central Conus.

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10.5;  PNA Day 8.5; AO Day 9

Recent Verification Tendency:  more positive NAO & PNA, neutral AO

 

GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Jun 11th, (longer) above normal anomalies Jun 12th thru Jun 17th, (cooler) below normal anomalies Jun 18th thru Jun 22nd, above normal anomalies Jun 23rd thru Jun 25th (end of run).  

GEPS: (0.5 day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 12th, (longer) above normal anomalies later Jun 12th into Jun 19th, below normal anomalies later Jun 19th into Jun 20th, above normal anomalies Jun 21st thru Jun 25th (end of run).

EPS: (1.5 days later) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 12th, (longer) above normal anomalies later Jun 12th thru Jun 17th, below normal anomalies Jun 18th thru Jun 21st, above normal anomalies Jun 22nd and Jun 23rd, near normal anomalies Jun 24th (end of run).   

 

NAEFS Week 2: Period of June 18th thru June 25th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, less confidence than days earlier, losing that warmer stretch.

  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:         +EPO thru 6/15 (day longer;  neg 6/16 (shorter); pos 6/17-6/21; neg 6/22-6/25

                   +PNA thru 6/12 (day shorter); neg 6/13-6/23; neut 6/24; neg 6/25                        

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (similar); neg 6/24-6/25

GEPS:         +EPO thru 6/15 (day shorter); neg 6/16 (shorter); pos 6/17-6/21; neg 6/22-6/25

                   +PNA thru 6/11 (day shorter);  neg 6/12-6/25

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (simliar); neut 6/24; neg 6/25

EPS:           +EPO thru 6/15 (2 days shorter); neg 6/16-6/17; pos 6/18-6/20; neg 6/21-6/24

                   +PNA thru 6/11 (2 days shorter); neg 6/12-6/24

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (6 days longer); neg 6/23-6/24

WPO:          Pos after 6/12, except GEPS neg aft 6/20

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Bland Phase 1

GEFS  Lingering in Phase 1;  EPS Lingering in Phase 1 (runs ends 6/24).

MVentrice Phase 1 to Phase 4. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 50th percentile to 30th percentile & Wave 2 around 50th percentile;  EC see ya next winter.

SPV/NAM:  Good trop shot this past week; another wishful shot after 6/25? 

image.png.d1210d25ad3fac57a2daa3be7b9390bb.png

eps_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

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58 minutes ago, Bananashadow said:

00z/10th Ensemble Comparison 6/10-6/25.  Normal 850mb temp around +14C. 

Northern Plains Burn, We Still Get Reprieves.

The last vestige of the Rex block exits to our northeast this weekend.  Close enough to induce some wet weather.  Then the building heat in the central Conus makes a pass at us this week.  Just when the oh no here we go again feeling starts to set in, the more progressive pattern digs another trof into the west coast and pumps up the ridge in the central Conus again. This favors the development of eastern NOAM troffing again and cooler weather.  This is just starting to work its way into the we have skill time for Father's Day Weekend, so we will have to see if it holds.  Some of it is also predicated on -NAO ridging.  Look at map below, don't get how this is an "index" +NAO.  Anyway the GEFS has the greatest amplitude (near Barney departures) while the GEPS has the least troffiness. Thus the coolest vs warmest solutions.  I would opt for the EPS since it seems that when it is in the middle of these two, it usually works best.  MJO phases 1-4 are not necessarily warm for us, but poorer summer correlation or not they do get warmer if we keep on progressing.  It would be nice if the GFS has another Trop shot correct for the last week of the month, but  this is even beyond la la land.  Have to watch teleconnections this time of year as wavelengths are shorter.  The -PNA is concentrating the heat for now over the central Conus.

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10.5;  PNA Day 8.5; AO Day 9

Recent Verification Tendency:  more positive NAO & PNA, neutral AO

 

GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Jun 11th, (longer) above normal anomalies Jun 12th thru Jun 17th, (cooler) below normal anomalies Jun 18th thru Jun 22nd, above normal anomalies Jun 23rd thru Jun 25th (end of run).  

GEPS: (0.5 day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 12th, (longer) above normal anomalies later Jun 12th into Jun 19th, below normal anomalies later Jun 19th into Jun 20th, above normal anomalies Jun 21st thru Jun 25th (end of run).

EPS: (1.5 days later) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 12th, (longer) above normal anomalies later Jun 12th thru Jun 17th, below normal anomalies Jun 18th thru Jun 21st, above normal anomalies Jun 22nd and Jun 23rd, near normal anomalies Jun 24th (end of run).   

 

NAEFS Week 2: Period of June 18th thru June 25th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, less confidence than days earlier, losing that warmer stretch.

  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:         +EPO thru 6/15 (day longer;  neg 6/16 (shorter); pos 6/17-6/21; neg 6/22-6/25

                   +PNA thru 6/12 (day shorter); neg 6/13-6/23; neut 6/24; neg 6/25                        

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (similar); neg 6/24-6/25

GEPS:         +EPO thru 6/15 (day shorter); neg 6/16 (shorter); pos 6/17-6/21; neg 6/22-6/25

                   +PNA thru 6/11 (day shorter);  neg 6/12-6/25

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (simliar); neut 6/24; neg 6/25

EPS:           +EPO thru 6/15 (2 days shorter); neg 6/16-6/17; pos 6/18-6/20; neg 6/21-6/24

                   +PNA thru 6/11 (2 days shorter); neg 6/12-6/24

                   +NAO thru 6/23 (6 days longer); neg 6/23-6/24

WPO:          Pos after 6/12, except GEPS neg aft 6/20

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Bland Phase 1

GEFS  Lingering in Phase 1;  EPS Lingering in Phase 1 (runs ends 6/24).

MVentrice Phase 1 to Phase 4. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 50th percentile to 30th percentile & Wave 2 around 50th percentile;  EC see ya next winter.

SPV/NAM:  Good trop shot this past week; another wishful shot after 6/25? 

image.png.d1210d25ad3fac57a2daa3be7b9390bb.png

eps_z500aNorm_namer_41.png

With the ridge set up that far to the west, does that make it a more favorable pattern for thunderstorms in our region? I feel like some of the more intense storms in recent years have come at us from the northwest (the June 2020 derecho being a good example) but I'm not sure if it's quite as simple as ridge-trough positioning.

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