Memorial Day Weekend, A Week Late & A Dollar Short?

[Rainshadow]

Welp.  It's the Euro/Icon vs the GFS/GGEM/UKMET on how wet the upcoming weekend will be.  The former were more progressive last night.  The latter close off a low and you know the rest.   Their 500mb ensemble means were not that different.  Whether there is more than the typical averaging/smoothing going on with them, I don't know.  Now the EPS & GEFS are outlooking the NAO to go negative within skill time, so that in itself suggests a slower evolution.  I don't think we will get away unscathed.  But here is hoping that it is progressive enough that the second half of the weekend is better.

 

[Qtown Snow]

Will I be able to get in a dry round of golf Friday am? 

GFS says probably, Euro says no, Tony @Bananashadow says?

 

[Rainshadow]

1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

Will I be able to get in a dry round of golf Friday am? 

GFS says probably, Euro says no, Tony @Bananashadow says?

 

My last two Friday rounds we had to stop in the middle of them because of rain, thunder.  I am not golfing this Friday, so you have that going for you.

[talonsmith]

So stubborn Marine air with misty rain and 50s as is memorial day tradition now?

[Rainshadow]

11 hours ago, talonsmith said:

So stubborn Marine air with misty rain and 50s as is memorial day tradition now?

It is for the GFS.  22 consecutive 3hr periods of measurable rain.

 

[Rainshadow]

While there is some member support with the GFS it is neevr going to stop rain again (P18 gonna rain for seven consecutive days), most members are like the Euro, centered on Fri-Sat with improvement thereafter.

 

[Qtown Snow]

0z euro starting to look like gfs, ugh, really don't need more rain.

[Parsley]

Yeah, already cancelled out of town plans for Friday-Saturday. Bet on crappy in this pattern. Maybe not wall to wall rain but I'm not too optimistic about seeing any sustained sun/nice weather in the next..................................week. 🤮

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, Qtown Snow said:

0z euro starting to look like gfs, ugh, really don't need more rain.

It was really looking more like the EPS, they are kind of zeroing in on Fri-Sat (sorry) for now.

[Rainshadow]

Yeah no bueno for 1st half.

 

[Allsnow]

Score one for the gfs on this event 

[Parsley]

Knowing our luck the Upper Low will dump right over the soggy zone all weekend.

[iceman56]

Another year where I can't get the garden planted until the growing season is too short to produce.    Already planted potatoes, asparagus, peas and they all rotted.    With cost of lumber, I hate doing the raised bed thing, especially when I'll likely have moved up north in the next couple years.

[ErieWX]

NWS Cleveland and Mt Holly are both going with the more progressive look with rain ending after Friday, so there’s that 

 

aaaand just checked and gfs sends the storm packing and brings the high in on sat 

[Qtown Snow]

well 12z gfs has rain friday moving out saturday am early so now 12z euro will probably have a complete wash out all 3 days

[Seanvolz98]

7 minutes ago, ErieWX said:

NWS Cleveland and Mt Holly are both going with the more progressive look with rain ending after Friday, so there’s that 

 

aaaand just checked and gfs sends the storm packing and brings the high in on sat 

Yeah massive changes in the right direction. Is it too much to ask for a nice weekend day to golf? 

[ErieWX]

41 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

well 12z gfs has rain friday moving out saturday am early so now 12z euro will probably have a complete wash out all 3 days

Close, it’s the GEM now lol

[frankdp23]

Ukie looks pretty dry after Friday night/early Sat

[susqushawn]

12z gfs and half the gefs abandon the prolonged cutoff low this weekend and converted to a fast moving cold front.  The ec/cmc trended slower.  Maybe we eek out a 50/50 weekend?  still uncertain

[Rainshadow]

8 hours ago, susqushawn said:

12z gfs and half the gefs abandon the prolonged cutoff low this weekend and converted to a fast moving cold front.  The ec/cmc trended slower.  Maybe we eek out a 50/50 weekend?  still uncertain

I think Sunday/Monday we’re going to be okay. Saturday still questionable. Regardless better than last year.

[Rainshadow]

We are getting closer to a not so good start, but better finish to the weekend.  The GFS is slowly abandoning it is going to rain for four consecutive days non stop solution.

 

[greg ralls]

Hopefully, we get some nice fireworks with the day 3 SPC severe threat on Friday and the actual holiday weekend turns out halfway decent.

[susqushawn]

Saturday has some lingering moisture and instability so pop up showers in heat of afternoon sun may occur but overall (hopefully) not a bad day.  Secondary cold front rolls through by lunchtime lowering dewpoints and drying out most of the column except around 850.

Cutoff fortunately gets caught up in the westerlies as just enough energy dips down to partially phase and whisk it away.

Sun/Mon as a result are spectacular.  Sunny aside from high clouds, dry, 80s Sun to near 90 Mon.

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Saturday has some lingering moisture and instability so pop up showers in heat of afternoon sun may occur but overall (hopefully) not a bad day.  Secondary cold front rolls through by lunchtime lowering dewpoints and drying out most of the column except around 850.

Cutoff fortunately gets caught up in the westerlies as just enough energy dips down to partially phase and whisk it away.

Sun/Mon as a result are spectacular.  Sunny aside from high clouds, dry, 80s Sun to near 90 Mon.

Yup.

[Qtown Snow]

7:52 am tee time tomorrow, looks like weather will hold off till afternoon, thanks Tony  @Bananashadow

I sure hope we are not yet again a bullseye with massive down pours. Grass cutting has been challenging last few weeks. High grass in many areas that are still saturated.