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Final Thoughts, Summary On The Torrid & Horrid GFS 100F Or Bust Thread For 2022...


Rainshadow
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  • 2 weeks later...

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F (82F) on 6/20

6/12/12z.....100F (74F) on 6/23

6/13/06z....101F (74F) on 6/23

6/17/00z.....100F (91F) on 6/30, 101F (94F) on 7/1 & an all-time record high for July of 106F (94F) on 7/2

6/24/00z....100F (90F) on 7/6 & 103F (84F) on 7/7.  

6/24/18z....100F (84F) on 7/7

6/27/12z....101F (83F) on 7/10 & 103F (86F) on 7/11.  

6/30/18z....100F (93F) on 7/12

7/1/18z.......An all-time record high for July of 106F (91F) on 7/13

7/6/00z......100F (96F) on 7/20 & 102F (97F) on 7/21. 

7/6/18z......102F (96F) on 7/20 & 102F (97F) on 7/21

7/7/00z.....100F (98F) on 7/22

7/7/06z.....102F (96F) on 7/20 & 104F (97F) on 7/21

7/7/18z.....102F (96F) on 7/20 & 105F (97F) on 7/21

7/8/00z....102F (97F) on 7/21

7/8/12z....100F (97F) on 7/21 & An all-time record high for July of 106F (97F) on 7/22

7/8/18z....102F (97F) on 7/21, 102F (98F) on 7/23 & 100F (99F) on 7/24

7/9/06z....102F on 7/19 (93F), 102F (96F) on 7/20 & 103F (97F) on 7/21

7/14/00z...104F (83F) on 7/26 & 105F (89F) on 7/27

7/14/12z...101F (93F) on 7/28

7/14/18z...100F (87F) on 7/29

7/15/12z...103F (93F) on 7/28 & 103F (87F) on 7/29

7/15/18z...102F (99F) on 7/24

7/16/00z...102F (98F) on 7/23, 100F (83F) on 7/26, 100F (89F) on 7/27 & 100F (93F) on 7/28 (one short of 1988 record)

7/16/06z...100F (97F) on 7/21

7/16/12z...101F (99F) on 7/24, 100F (92F) on 7/25 and 104F (87F) on 7/29

7/17/00z...100F (89F) on 7/27

7/19/06z...102F (99F) on 7/24

7/19/12z....102F (99F) on 7/24, 101F (90F) on 7/30, 100F (81F) on 8/1

7/19/18z....100F (98F) on 7/23, 101F (99F) on 7/24, 100F (87F) on 7/29

7/20/00z...103F (99F) on 7/24

7/20/06z...101F (99F)  on 7/24

7/20/12z...100F (98F) on 7/23 & 101F (99F) on 7/24

7/20/18z...100F (98F) on 7/23 & 103F (99F) on 7/24 & 100F (93F) on 8/2 & 100F (97F) on 8/4

7/21/00z...101F (97F) on 8/4

7/21/06z...102F (81F) on 8/1 & 102F (93F) on 8/2

7/21/12z...100F (99F) on 7/24

7/23/06z...100F (99F) on 7/24

7/23/18z...100F (94F) on 8/7 & 101F (97F) on 8/8

7/24/18z...101F (97F) on 8/4, 103F (92F) on 8/5, 104F (91F)  on 8/6,

                       101F (94F) on 8/7 & 100F (97F) on 8/8

In case you are wondering the current consecutive record 100 degree days is 3.

7/25/00z...103F (97F) on 8/8 & 103F (98F) on 8/9

7/25/06z...100F (94F) on 8/7

7/25/18z...101F (97F) on 8/8

7/26/00z...100F (91F) on 8/6 & 100F (94F) 8/7

7/26/06z...101F (98F) on 8/9 & 101F (91F) on 8/10

7/26/12z...102F (97F) on 8/4, 103F (92F) on 8/5, 101F (91F) on 8/6, all-time record tying 106F (94F) on 8/7, all-time record tying 106F (97F) on 8/8, 105F (98F) on 8/9 & 103F (91F) on 8/10

In case you are wondering, the GFS is now forecasting for Venus.

7/26/18z...101F (97F) on 8/4

7/27/06z...100F (97F) on 8/4 & 100F (97F) on 8/8

7/27/12z...101F (97F) on 8/4, "only" 105F (92F) on 8/5 & 103F (91F) on 8/6

7/27/18z...100F (97F) on 8/4

7/28/00z...101F (97F) on 8/4, 102F (92F) on 8/5, 104F (90F) on 8/11, 104F (87F) on 8/12

7/28/06z...101F (92F) on 8/5

7/28/12z....101F (97F) on 8/4, 100F (98F) on 8/9 & 100F (91F) on 8/10

7/28/18z...101F (97F) on 8/4, 102F (92F) on 8/5

7/29/00z...102F (97F) on 8/4, 100F (92F) on 8/5

7/29/06z...103F (92F) on 8/5, 101F (91F) on 8/6

7/29/12z....100F (92F) on 8/5 & 100F (91F) on 8/6 & 100F (98F) on 8/9

7/30/06z....101F (97F) on 8/4 & 100F (94F) on 8/7

7/30/12z....100F (98F) on 8/9

7/30/18z....100F (97F) on 8/4

7/31/00z....100F (97F) on 8/4

8/1/00z.....100F (93F) on 8/3

8/1/06z......100F (97F) on 8/4

8/1/12z......100F (97F) on 8/4

8/1/18z......100F (97F) on 8/4, (85F) 8/16 & (84F) 8/17

8/2/00z....100F (97F) on 8/4

8/2/06z....100F (97F) on 8/4

8/2/18z....100F (85F) on 8/14

8/4/18z...102F (92F) on 8/19

8/26/18z...100F (84F) on 9/9

8/28/18z...100F  (77F) on 9/6 & an all-time Sept record high of 103F (75F)  on 9/7

8/29/06z...100F  (75F)  on 9/7 & 101F (82F) on 9/8

8/30/06z...An all-time Sept record high of 104F (83F) on 9/10

 

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F (96F) on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F (78F) on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F (82F) on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F (77F) on 6/19

6/6/18z.........99F (79F) on 6/18

6/9/18z.........99F (81F) on 6/21

6/14/12z.......99F (77F) on 6/22

6/17/00z......99F (88F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......99F (91F) on 7/3

6/20/18z......99F (89F) on 7/5

7/7/06z........99F (93F) on 7/19 & (96F) 7/20

7/9/12z........99F (94F) on 7/18 & (97F) 7/22

7/11/06z......99F (96F) on 7/20

7/12/18z......99F (97F) on 7/22

7/13/06.......99F (97F) on 7/21

7/13/18z.....99F (99F) on 7/24

7/15/12z.....99F (89F) on 7/27

7/15/18z.....99F (97F) on 7/21 & (98F) 7/23

7/16/00z....99F (97F) on 7/21

7/16/06z....99F (98F) on 7/23 & (99F) 7/24

7/16/12z....99F (97F) on 7/21

7/16/18z...99F (97F) on 7/21

7/17/00z...99F (83F) on 7/26

7/17/12z...99F (81F) on 8/1

7/18/18z...99F (90F) on 7/30

7/19/00z...99F (99F) on 7/24

7/19/06z...99F (98F) on 7/23

7/19/12z...99F (98F) on 7/23 & (93F) 8/2

7/19/18z....99F (93F) on 7/28

7/20/00z....99F (93F) on 7/28

7/20/06z...99F (98F) on 7/23 & (87F) 7/29

7/21/00z...99F (98F) on 7/23 & (99F) 7/24

7/21/06z...99F (98F) on 7/23, (99F) 7/24 & (92F) 7/31

7/21/12z...99F (98F) on 7/23, (93F) 8/3 & (97F) 8/4

7/21/18z...99F (98F) on 7/23, (99F) 7/24, (93F) 8/3 & (91F) 8/6

7/22/00z...99F (98F) on 7/23 & (99F) 7/24

7/22/06z...99F (98F) on 7/23

7/22/12z...99F (98F) on 7/23

7/23/00z...99F (92F) on 8/5

7/23/12z...99F (98F) on 7/23 & (99F) 7/24

7/23/18z...99F (99F) on 7/24 & (91F) 8/6

7/24/00z...99F (99F) on 7/24

7/24/06z...99F (99F) on 7/24

7/24/12z...99F (99F) on 7/24

7/24/18z...99F (98F) on 8/9

7/25/12z...99F (91F) on 8/6

7/25/18z...99F (92F) on 8/5

7/27/12z...99F (94F) on 8/7

7/27/18z...99F (92F) on 8/5

7/28/12z...99F (92F) on 8/5

7/29/06z...99F (97F) on 8/4

7/29/18z....99F (92F) on 8/5 & (90F) 8/11

7/30/00z...99F (97F) on 8/4

7/30/12z...99F (97F) on 8/4

7/31/06z...99F (97F) on 8/4

7/31/12z....99F (97F) on 8/4

7/31/18z....99F (97F) on 8/4

8/2/00z.....99F (92F) on 8/5

8/2/06z....99F (92F) on 8/5

8/2/12z....99F (97F) on 8/4

8/2/18z....99F (97F) on 8/4 & (87F) 8/18

8/3/00z....99F (97F) on 8/4

8/3/06z....99F (97F) on 8/4

8/3/12z....99F (97F) on 8/4

8/3/18z…..99F (97F) on 8/4 & (85F) 8/16

8/4/06z....99F (92F) on 8/19

8/4/12z....99F (98F) on 8/9

8/5/12z....99F (98F) on 8/9

8/6/12z....99F (98F) on 8/9

8/8/00z...99F (98F) on 8/9

8/8/06z...99F (98F) on 8/9

8/8/12z....99F (98F) on 8/9

8/25/18z...99F (91F) on 9/4

8/29/00z...99F on  (82F) 9/8 &  (84F) 9/9

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

6/13/12z......100F (77F) on 6/22    (Another Day 9 winner)

6/14/12z......103F (77F) on 6/22 & 100F (74F) on 6/23

6/15/00z.....100F (77F) on 6/22

7/18/12z......100F (99F) on 7/24

7/19/00z.....100F (99F) on 7/24

7/19/12z.....100F (99F) on 7/24

7/22/00z....100F (99F) on 7/24

7/27/12z.....101F (92F) on 8/5

7/29/12z....102F (92F) on 8/5 & 102F (91F) on 8/6

 

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

7/19/00z.......99F(92F) on 7/25

7/20/00z......99F (99F) on 7/24

7/22/12z.......99F (99F) on 7/24

7/23/00z......99F (99F) on 7/24

7/27/00z.....99F (97F) on 8/4 & (92F) 8/5

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I believe there were 136 different forecasts of 100F or higher for PHL this season.  The Euro had 11. 

I am working on this calendar.  The Euro is complete.  The GFS just for June & September.  This is the highest forecast temperature for that calendar day by any GFS or Euro (in blue) run.  

The Euro nailed July 24th.  The high that day was 99F.  It stunk just as much as the GFS in late June.  Our highs were in the 70s.  That was the torch event it was forecasting 110s for the Carolinas.

 

june.JPG

august.JPG

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  • 3 weeks later...

I don't even know where to begin.  The next upgrade of the GFS can't come fast enough if it even half corrects this bias.  Suffice to say I am surmising that the two previous wet summers saved the GFS from itself.  It obviously baked itself into oblivion this summer.  That was even though the PHL ASOS on the Gladstone QC site indicated a 1-2F too warm bias with max temps most of the summer. 

Some of the lowlights.

Forecasted 100F or higher 137 times this summer.  (Euro 11 times)

Forecasted 100F or higher 48 times within 10 days, more than twice the rate of the Euro.

Forecasted a high of 99F....95 times this summer or more than the total number of 100F or higher forecasts it predicted the two previous summers combined (87).   Euro had 7 forecasts of 99F (3 of them were correct).  12 of the 95 GFS forecasts of 99F were correct.

The GFS twice forecast consecutive day streaks of 100F or more (one 5 days in a row and that oh so special 12z run on 7/26 of 7 days in a row) that would have broken the all-time record.  The still standing record is 3 days in a row.  That 7/26/12z run also predicted the greatest number of 100F days for any given summer in PHL, the still standing record for that is 5 days in 1988.

The GFS forecast PHL to set or tie monthly all-time record highs on seven separate days.  It so happens 5 of those days would have also tied the all-time record high for Philadelphia. 

The calendar shows the highest predicted maximum temperature by any run of the GFS and the sounding runs for the ECMWF.  So, the GFS forecast PHL to reach 100F or higher on 45 different days, the European 5.

Mind you just in 2020, The European forecasted PHL to reach 100F or higher 18 times.  The GFS forecast PHL to reach 100F or higher 39 times.  Given the GFS goes out to day 16 and I was only including Euro sounding runs, it meant the GFS really forecast 100F or higher less often than the Euro. Some upgrades are for the better, some not so much.

 

 

june.JPG

august.JPG

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Final Thoughts, Summary On The Torrid & Horrid GFS 100F Or Bust Thread For 2022...

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