Rainshadow Posted May 22, 2022 Report Share Posted May 22, 2022 Props to @ACwx for calling an early start to this thread. First here is last year's verification of the GFS vs ECMWF: Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher: 48 (9 more times than 2020) Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 36 Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or higher: 1 (17 less than 2020) Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 0 Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher within 10 days: 20 Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 19 Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F : 44 Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 39 Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 99F : 1 Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 1 Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F or higher within 10 days: 39 Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 39 Number of times GFS & ECMWF forecast 100F on the same day within 10 days: 0 Number of 100 degree days at PHL: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2022 Well maybe it is different this year. If only we had some other place to see how the GFS is doing... BTW yes this was the most egregious run I caught, but not the only run it pez dispensed 100s for JAX. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2022 And now for us.... Welcome to meteorological summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2022 It may be a long thread this season... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2022 You go 18z GFS, you go… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2022 You still go 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2022 It is not the 104F in Raleigh, but it was a good try 12hrs later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bananashadow said: It is not the 104F in Raleigh, but it was a good try 12hrs later... Then again, we can't hold a melting candle to this... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 Cough… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2022 Happy Father's Day from the GFS. The 18z run today should be golden.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2022 12 hours ago, Bananashadow said: Happy Father's Day from the GFS. The 18z run today should be golden.... It doesn’t fail…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2022 Going back to alphanumerics now instead of graphs. Good luck with that GFS. GFS (Verification in parentheses) 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 Euro (Verification in parentheses) Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 This may be an all-time high for RDU and not in la-la land either. Euro 100F, GGEM 98F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 12, 2022 Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Bananashadow said: This may be an all-time high for RDU and not in la-la land either. Euro 100F, GGEM 98F. It has been exceptionally dry down there this spring so if that torch airmass moves in for a few days 100+ seems likely in the Carolinas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 54 minutes ago, Parsley said: It has been exceptionally dry down there this spring so if that torch airmass moves in for a few days 100+ seems likely in the Carolinas. Allan (Huffman) predicted a 101F top for Raleigh this morning. My money would be that Allan will be closer. I know you are not saying 108F or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 GFS (Verification in parentheses) I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list. 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 Euro (Verification in parentheses) Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 12, 2022 Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bananashadow said: Allan (Huffman) predicted a 101F top for Raleigh this morning. My money would be that Allan will be closer. I know you are not saying 108F or higher. No, just saying widespread lower 100s (100-104) in the Carolinas seems obtainable if things hold as is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Bananashadow said: GFS (Verification in parentheses) I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list. 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 Euro (Verification in parentheses) Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 12z jumped on it already, 18z probably will have a 2 or 3 days of 100F... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2022 GFS (Verification in parentheses) I was wrong about the 18z run today, highest predicted temp only 97F on the 21st. 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 6/12/12z.....100F on 6/23 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 Euro (Verification in parentheses) Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2022 Canadian tells the GFS to hold its beer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2022 GFS (Verification in parentheses) I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list. 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 6/13/06z....101F on 6/23 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 Euro (Verification in parentheses) Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2022 Oh you Day 9 Euro… It’s not just for cyber snowstorms any longer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Euro tells the GFS and GGEM to hold its brewery…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 6/13/06z....101F on 6/23 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 6/14/12z......99F on 6/22 Euro (Verification in parentheses) 6/13/12z......100F on 6/22 6/14/12z......103F on 6/22 & 100F on 6/23 Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2022 GFS (Verification in parentheses) 5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1 (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year) 5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10 6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20 6/12/12z.....100F on 6/23 6/13/06z....101F on 6/23 Honorable Mentions: 6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17 6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16 6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20 6/6/06z........99F on 6/19 6/6/18z........99F on 6/18 6/9/18z........99F on 6/21 6/14/12z......99F on 6/22 Euro (Verification in parentheses) 6/13/12z......100F on 6/22 6/14/12z......103F on 6/22 & 100F on 6/23 6/15/00z.....100F on 6/22 Honorable Mentions: 5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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