Final Thoughts, Summary On The Torrid & Horrid GFS 100F Or Bust Thread For 2022...

[Rainshadow]

Props to @ACwx for calling an early start to this thread.

First here is last year's verification of the GFS vs ECMWF:

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher:  48  (9 more times than 2020)

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  36

 

Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or higher:  1 (17 less than 2020)

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 0

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher within 10 days: 20

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 19

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F :  44

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  39

 

Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 99F :  1

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  1

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F or higher within 10 days: 39

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 39

 

Number of times GFS & ECMWF forecast 100F on the same day within 10 days: 0

 

Number of 100 degree days at PHL: 0

[Rainshadow]

Well maybe it is different this year.  If only we had some other place to see how the GFS is doing...

BTW yes this was the most egregious run I caught, but not the only run it pez dispensed 100s for JAX.

 

[Rainshadow]

And now for us....  Welcome to meteorological summer.

[Rainshadow]

It may be a long thread this season...

 

[Rainshadow]

You go 18z GFS, you go…

[Rainshadow]

You still go 18z GFS...

 

 

[Rainshadow]

It is not the 104F in Raleigh, but it was a good try 12hrs later...

 

 

[Rainshadow]

2 minutes ago, Bananashadow said:

It is not the 104F in Raleigh, but it was a good try 12hrs later...

 

 

Then again, we can't hold a melting candle to this...

 

[Rainshadow]

Cough…

[Rainshadow]

Happy Father's Day from the GFS.  The 18z run today should be golden....

 

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, Bananashadow said:

Happy Father's Day from the GFS.  The 18z run today should be golden....

 

It doesn’t fail….

[Rainshadow]

Going back to alphanumerics now instead of graphs.  Good luck with that GFS.

 

GFS  (Verification in parentheses)

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

 

[Rainshadow]

This may be an all-time high for RDU and not in la-la land either.  Euro 100F, GGEM 98F.

 

[Parsley]

1 hour ago, Bananashadow said:

This may be an all-time high for RDU and not in la-la land either.  Euro 100F, GGEM 98F.

 

It has been exceptionally dry down there this spring so if that torch airmass moves in for a few days 100+ seems likely in the Carolinas.

[Rainshadow]

54 minutes ago, Parsley said:

It has been exceptionally dry down there this spring so if that torch airmass moves in for a few days 100+ seems likely in the Carolinas.

Allan (Huffman) predicted a 101F top for Raleigh this morning.  My money would be that Allan will be closer.  I know you are not saying 108F or higher.

[Rainshadow]

GFS  (Verification in parentheses)

I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list.

 

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

[Parsley]

12 minutes ago, Bananashadow said:

Allan (Huffman) predicted a 101F top for Raleigh this morning.  My money would be that Allan will be closer.  I know you are not saying 108F or higher.

No, just saying widespread lower 100s (100-104) in the Carolinas seems obtainable if things hold as is. 

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, Bananashadow said:

GFS  (Verification in parentheses)

I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list.

 

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

12z jumped on it already, 18z probably will have a 2 or 3 days of 100F...

 

 

[Rainshadow]

GFS  (Verification in parentheses)

I was wrong about the 18z run today, highest predicted temp only 97F on the 21st.

 

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

6/12/12z.....100F on 6/23

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

[Rainshadow]

Canadian tells the GFS to hold its beer.

[Rainshadow]

GFS  (Verification in parentheses)

I think the 18z run today (12th) has a chance to add to this list.

 

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

6/13/06z....101F on 6/23

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

[Rainshadow]

Oh you Day 9 Euro…

It’s not just for cyber snowstorms any longer...

[Rainshadow]

Euro tells the GFS and GGEM to hold its brewery….

[Rainshadow]

 

 

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

6/13/06z....101F on 6/23

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

6/14/12z......99F on 6/22

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

6/13/12z......100F on 6/22

6/14/12z......103F on 6/22 & 100F on 6/23

 

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2

[Rainshadow]

 

GFS (Verification in parentheses)

5/20/18z.......100F (87F) on 6/1     (28 days earlier than the first 100 prediction of last year)

5/28/18z......101F (81F) on 6/10

6/9/18z.......101F on 6/20

6/12/12z.....100F on 6/23

6/13/06z....101F on 6/23

 

Honorable Mentions:

6/1/18z..........99F on 6/17

6/4/18z.........99F on 6/16

6/5/18z.........99F on 6/20

6/6/06z........99F on 6/19

6/6/18z........99F on 6/18

6/9/18z........99F on 6/21

6/14/12z......99F on 6/22

 

 

Euro (Verification in parentheses)

6/13/12z......100F on 6/22

6/14/12z......103F on 6/22 & 100F on 6/23

6/15/00z.....100F on 6/22

 

Honorable Mentions:

5/24/00z.......99F (87F) on 6/2