Rainshadow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 830am update SPC: ...NY to the Mid-Atlantic from late morning to late afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley this morning will progress east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England by tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens across the Saint Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front likewise moves eastward and offshore overnight. Low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread northward ahead of the front, and pockets of surface heating will boost buoyancy by afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Deep-layer flow/vertical shear will increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the west, contributing to an environment supportive of organized line segments and some supercell structures from late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity by late morning from the Finger Lakes region southward along the leading edge of the pre-frontal convective band moving into western PA this morning. These storms will subsequently spread eastward across NY and the Mid-Atlantic through late afternoon, and other storms could form farther west and southwest along the synoptic cold front, assuming sufficient cloud breaks occur by midday. The presence of organized convective bands and strengthening wind profiles suggest that wind damage with peak gusts of 55-70 mph will be a common threat this afternoon, west of any cooling marine influence. The threat for significant (75+ mph) gusts is more questionable given rather modest downdraft potential (DCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg) and low-midlevel flow no stronger than 30-40 kt. Otherwise, low-level shear may be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes with pre-frontal supercells or circulations embedded in line segments, and the stronger storms may also produce isolated large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. Wind Risk: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, susqushawn said: 830am update SPC: ...NY to the Mid-Atlantic from late morning to late afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley this morning will progress east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England by tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens across the Saint Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front likewise moves eastward and offshore overnight. Low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread northward ahead of the front, and pockets of surface heating will boost buoyancy by afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Deep-layer flow/vertical shear will increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the west, contributing to an environment supportive of organized line segments and some supercell structures from late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity by late morning from the Finger Lakes region southward along the leading edge of the pre-frontal convective band moving into western PA this morning. These storms will subsequently spread eastward across NY and the Mid-Atlantic through late afternoon, and other storms could form farther west and southwest along the synoptic cold front, assuming sufficient cloud breaks occur by midday. The presence of organized convective bands and strengthening wind profiles suggest that wind damage with peak gusts of 55-70 mph will be a common threat this afternoon, west of any cooling marine influence. The threat for significant (75+ mph) gusts is more questionable given rather modest downdraft potential (DCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg) and low-midlevel flow no stronger than 30-40 kt. Otherwise, low-level shear may be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes with pre-frontal supercells or circulations embedded in line segments, and the stronger storms may also produce isolated large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. Wind Risk: I appreciate the SPC in their discussion highlighting the fact that although the wind risk is higher than we normally see for this area, the risk of severe 75+mph winds is pretty low - intuitively some people outside of the weather community may think a higher risk means a higher overall magnitude of winds. Good point for communication. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Our school district decide to go with an early dismissal per pending thunderstorms, i don't recall an early dismissal ever for pending thunderstorms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Scattered showers and more cloudcover moving up towards us from the DC region Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said: Our school district decide to go with an early dismissal per pending thunderstorms, i don't recall an early dismissal ever for pending thunderstorms. Is todays possible event expected to be a historic day?? All I am hearing is very bad storms today. Stay home etc. Wawa this morning the talk was very bad weather coming, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mb2231 Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Animal said: Is todays possible event expected to be a historic day?? All I am hearing is very bad storms today. Stay home etc. Wawa this morning the talk was very bad weather coming, Historic? Probably not. I think after the severe weather last summer there's a much needed focus on keeping people safe. 55-70mph gusts are more than enough to knock down large trees. Better one of them doesn't land on a school bus full of kids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Clouds/showers rolling up from NE MD could muck up the fun for someone. 1st batch favors far north, 2nd batch more philly/south. There will be a weenie out there later today whining about a 7-10 split (probably me) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Clouds/showers rolling up from NE MD could muck up the fun for someone. 1st batch favors far north, 2nd batch more philly/south. There will be a weenie out there later today whining about a 7-10 split (probably me) Lotta cloud debris for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 52 minutes ago, Animal said: Is todays possible event expected to be a historic day?? All I am hearing is very bad storms today. Stay home etc. Wawa this morning the talk was very bad weather coming, 37 minutes ago, mb2231 said: Historic? Probably not. I think after the severe weather last summer there's a much needed focus on keeping people safe. 55-70mph gusts are more than enough to knock down large trees. Better one of them doesn't land on a school bus full of kids. Historic may be subjective, especially if you experience a tornado or high winds knocking down 100 year old trees. Historic overall? Hopefully no. Locally? Possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxonwheels Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Hearing a few rumbles, this little guy is coming right overhead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Always hate the morning crap mucking up the fun. Concerning for potential late afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_nino Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Looks like we have some lightning in NE Philly, moving into Bucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 74 degrees, cloudy Thunder from little cell just to west in Bensalem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxonwheels Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Dang just had a strike very close by, almost zero delay after the flash. Kabooom! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Just now, foxonwheels said: Dang just had a strike very close by, almost zero delay after the flash. Kabooom! that gets the adrenaline pumping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxonwheels Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, susqushawn said: that gets the adrenaline pumping Sure does. It's fun hearing things around the house rattle and shake that don't typically make those types of noises. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Pouring here at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 Back home quick 0.12" with that cell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 meso up for watch likely SE PA, DE/NJ. awaiting SPC text to load Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next few hours, with supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail possible. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery has shown an increase in the showers from northern VA into NJ, with a few stronger embedded updrafts. This area is indicative of the increased ascent preceding the shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Air mass over most of the region has warmed into the low 70s amid dewpoints in the mid 60s. While cloud cover may impede heating somewhat, this air mass is still expected to further destabilize over the next few hours. As it does, a few stronger updrafts may manifest within this warm-air advection regime. Moderate shear is in place, so any stronger, more persistent updrafts could organize, and the potential for a few supercells capable of isolated hail and damaging wind gusts exists. Greatest chance for severe thunderstorms during the next few hours appears to be across NJ and into the Hudson Valley where temperatures are highest. Convective trends are being monitored across the entire region for likely watch issuance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 my son a senior just got home, he said everyone was saying there are tornado warnings so thats why school did an early dismissal 😲 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 16, 2022 Report Share Posted May 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: my son a senior just got home, he said everyone was saying there are tornado warnings so thats why school did an early dismissal 😲 you need to sit him down and have a talk. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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