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The never ending closed low model qpf comparison (12/8-10)


Rainshadow
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Since it never ends, this is only going to be thru 12z Wednesday the 10th for PHL:

 

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07:  2.07, 1.95, 3.17, 1.84

12/08:  3.05. 2.45, 3.56

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15, 21z)

 

12/07: 1.67, 1.90, 1.99, 1.85

12/08: 2.18, 2.06

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07: 0.68, 1.18, 1.06. 0.64

12/08: 0.93, 1.36

 

 

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NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07:  2.07, 1.95, 3.17, 1.84

12/08:  3.05, 2.45, 3.56, 1.33  - - - - - > 12z nam was wettest of 21 ensemble members.

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

12/07: 1.67, 1.90, 1.99, 1.85

12/08: 2.18, 2.06, 1.65

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07: 0.68, 1.18, 1.06, 0.64

12/08: 0.93, 1.36, 1.50

 

ECMWF (00z, 12z, same for ensemble mean)

12/07  2.80,  2.20

12/08   2.40, 2.1

 

ECMWF ensemble mean

12/08  2.10, 2

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NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07:  2.07, 1.95, 3.17, 1.84

12/08:  3.05, 2.45, 3.56, 1.33

12/09:  2.28

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

12/07: 1.67, 1.90, 1.99, 1.85

12/08: 2.18, 2.06, 1.65, 1.36

12/09: 1.74

 

GFS  (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

12/07: 0.68, 1.18, 1.06, 0.64

12/08: 0.93, 1.36, 1.50, 1.35

12/09: 1.24

 

ECMWF (00z, 12z, same for ensemble mean)

12/07  2.80,  2.20

12/08   2.40, 2.1

12/09  2.8

 

ECMWF ensemble mean

12/08  2.10, 2

12/09 2

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Guest WildWeather

The error was a westward displacement by both the nam and ec. Both were probably too slow also. The GFS has won the NFC South.

Wow LOL that about sums it up great comparison!!!

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Which model would you say did best? I mean qpf wise, gfs did, but the euro had the storm first...maybe ggem?

 

In the medium range the euro, once within 72 hrs, the ggem (ukmet close 2nd), never bought off on banding getting that far southwest. GGEM qpf might have been too high where it did rain, not sure about that.

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