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3/12 Rain Changing To Snow Before Ending Followed Quickly By Sub Freezing Temperatures & Howling Winds


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18 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Regardless Of how things play out here Saturday, the potnetial for a flash freeze situation is high. Temps crash by 4pm on the euro. Any standing water will freeze overnight. 

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The wind too.

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49 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Saturday will hopefully be as much fun as the hi-res depicts.  Good model agreement overnight generally speaking.  Some heavy snow will rip well to our NW 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh55-60.gif

Yes could be close. This event will fill-in the gradient compass - near misses south and east have been covered.

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Saturday will hopefully be as much fun as the hi-res depicts.  Good model agreement overnight generally speaking.  Some heavy snow will rip well to our NW 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh55-60.gif

Still not over by a long shot per above, but for giggles, Kuchera on top and 10:1 on the bottom.

snku_acc.us_state_pa (3).png

sn10_acc.us_state_pa (13).png

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Comparison of 06 euro (first) and 00z gem at 500mb. Euro has less phasing between northern and southern stream and is stronger/sharper with both northern and southern stream. I can buy less phasing/sharper vorts, but euro could be missing phase because southern stream is too slow. Need to see more support from other models.

 

models-2022031006-f060.500hv.conus.gif

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11 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Comparison of 06 euro (first) and 00z gem at 500mb. Euro has less phasing between northern and southern stream and is stronger/sharper with both northern and southern stream. I can buy less phasing/sharper vorts, but euro could be missing phase because southern stream is too slow. Need to see more support from other models.

 

models-2022031006-f060.500hv.conus.gif

Hanging energy back has not been as much of a problem with the Euro as it once was.  But I don't get much added value from these off sounding runs at my age. 

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4 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Hanging energy back has not been as much of a problem with the Euro as it once was.  But I don't get much added value from these off sounding runs at my age. 

I wish they’d go back to only 0z and 12z runs for all models.  They run too many times and all the upgrades have made them worse.  Tracking has become a lot less fun over the years.

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7 minutes ago, Mbucher11 said:

I wish they’d go back to only 0z and 12z runs for all models.  They run too many times and all the upgrades have made them worse.  Tracking has become a lot less fun over the years.

The genie never gets put back in the bottle. 

I know we don't live at 500mb, but this is  the standard used.  It seems for all of the "improvements" to the Euro and this disappointing Sandy funded GFS "improvement" modeling has been hitting a wall.  Not too much of a bang for all of the time/effort/money put into this.  You can even see a slight downturn in the Euro & UKMET.  I wonder if this is La Nina related.  

ecs.JPG.e27f230ad9e9aa7c57670cf5a199ca03.JPG

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1 minute ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

The genie never gets put back in the bottle. 

I know we don't live at 500mb, but this is  the standard used.  It seems for all of the "improvements" to the Euro and this disappointing Sandy funded GFS "improvement" modeling has been hitting a wall.  Not too much of a bang for all of the time/effort/money put into this.  You can even see a slight downturn in the Euro & UKMET.  I wonder if this is La Nina related.  

ecs.JPG.e27f230ad9e9aa7c57670cf5a199ca03.JPG

A little closer in look, the Canadian is overtaking the UKMET.

ffff.JPG.c068cc8f2c12afa27c42bea73b0bb7e1.JPG

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44 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

The genie never gets put back in the bottle. 

I know we don't live at 500mb, but this is  the standard used.  It seems for all of the "improvements" to the Euro and this disappointing Sandy funded GFS "improvement" modeling has been hitting a wall.  Not too much of a bang for all of the time/effort/money put into this.  You can even see a slight downturn in the Euro & UKMET.  I wonder if this is La Nina related.  

ecs.JPG.e27f230ad9e9aa7c57670cf5a199ca03.JPG

Would be interesting to see the model consensus on the chart. How much time should be spent on parsing the individual runs vs throwing them all in a hat.

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