irishbri74 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 So the gfs has been doing this for a few runs… initial partial split: then, PV recoups a bit: and then, for the first time all winter, a couple runs in a row where it starts to split it again… we’ll have to keep an eye on that 2nd split potential. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 00z/3rd Ensemble Comparison 3/3-3/18. Normal 850mb temp around -1C. You Can't Keep A Good -EPO Ridge Down. It looks like too much of a cold air flow in Canada for us to escape unscathed. The models have had a negative PNA bias since the +PNA pattern established itself in January, so until it breaks the bias...I will not be as confident as the NAEFS again about being warm in week 2 (3/8-3/15). Those thoughts are looking better right now. Granted it did not hurt March 7th was not included in that week (really 8 days on the NAEFS). Anyway that -EPO ridge well within skill times floods Canada with too much cold air. (It also helps the TPV re-establish itself near Hudson's Bay). Angle of the cold or not, Barney cold getting into the Northern Plains is now within skill time and it can only go east from there. The trending toward a more negative NAO would slow the exit eastward. So while it starts at day 10 (about 5 days after the -EPO reaches its peak), I think a period of colder than normal weather is coming after the down/way up/down/up thru 3/12. The question then becomes does it continue. Here we are in la la land with the typical la la land splits between I'll find a way to keep it cold GEFS (farther south TPV and also BCMJO phases 2 & 3 to boot) and the other ensembles. Even if it is wrong the GEFS is consistent. The GEPS is out or sorts having a +EPO/-PNA couplet and keeping us cold (its TPV is farther north too). For this run the EPS got off its warm horse and also looks consistent (5 days from a la la land EPO switch would bring warmer weather back 3/17). So in the days ahead we will see which ensemble blinks. Just my opinion I think this upcoming cold shot is from the trop and not the strat. It is the MJO phase 4 (wave 1,2) hits that are bringing (as of now) a near SSW wind reversal and set in motion the -EPO. Not the strat bleeding its disruption downward. We are talking three week historical climatological lags for us, so even if a SSW 10mb wind reversal was to occur on 3/7, we are talking way late March. Either way the SPV is going to collapse and disappear. For now I'd blame a lousy April on it more than what occurs this March. Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 10.5; PNA Day 11.5; AO Day 9.5 Recent Verification Tendency: More Negative AO & NAO; More Positive PNA GEFS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Mar 4th, (0.5 shorter) above normal anomalies Mar 5th thru Mar 8th, (1.5 longer) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th into Mar 10th, (0.5 shorter) above normal anomalies later Mar 10th into Mar 12th, below normal anomalies later Mar 12th through Mar 17th, (true can kick) above normal anomalies Mar 18th (end of run). GEPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Mar 4th, (0.5 shorter) above normal anomalies Mar 5th into Mar 8th, (0.5 longer) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th thru Mar 9th, (same) above normal anomalies Mar 10th & Mar 11th, (colder overhaul) below normal anomalies Mar 12th thru Mar 18th (end of run). EPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Mar 4th, (now split) above normal anomalies Mar 5th into Mar 8th (new, colder) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th into Mar 9th, above normal anomalies Mar 10th into Mar 11th, (colder overhaul) below anomalies Mar 12th thru Mar 16th, above normal anomalies Mar 17th (end of run). NAEFS Week 2: Period of Mar 11th-Mar 18th. I don't know. Has meant colder than normal last two winters. Teleconnections: GEFS: -EPO thru 3/17 (-4 SD trof on 3/7), pos 3/18 (same) -PNA (same) -NAO thru 3/4; pos 3/5-3/7; neg 3/8-3/9; pos 3/10-3/18 (shorter negatives) GEPS: -EPO thru 3/10 (-2.5 SD trof 3/7); (same) pos 3/11-3/18 -PNA except new neutral 3/12-3/14 -NAO thru 3/4; pos 3/5-3/18 (new neutral 3/8) EPS: -EPO thru 3/11 (-3 SD trof 3/7); (new) pos 3/12-3/17 -PNA thru 3/10; (new) pos 3/11-3/15; neg 3/16-3/17 -NAO thru 3/4 (same); pos 3/5-3/6; (new) neg 3/8-3/13; pos 3/14-3/17 WPO: Positive thru 3/4 (same), then negative, GEFS/GEPS dropped the positive MJO: (WH Sectors) Strong Convection/Vel Potential Phase 3, secondary Phase 6. GEFS Phase 4 COD collapse re-emerges Phases 2/3; EPS Phase 4 collapse to middle of COD (runs ends 3/17). MVentrice Mdt Phase 5 border, Weaker Phase 8/1 at end. Strat: NASA Wave 1 99th percentile peak (1200 gpm) at end; Wave 2 peaks at 99.999 percentile hit now (850 gpm) before collapsing. EC similar, NASA went EC's way. SPV/NAM: (GFS) Dips To near SSW (5 kts) before recovering to 1.5 SD above (50kts) and then dipping again to near normal (20 kts). SPV ensembles, dip to below normal (10-15 kts) end 0.5 to 1 SD above 25-35 kts. EC winds trof at 20 kts before showing signs of recovering. Strat and trop hits do not connect (strong trop cold hit nonetheless). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 Hello forsythias. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 56 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Hello forsythias. And to think is “normal” high isn’t even 50 yet at PHL (48 as of yesterday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 Torch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Torch!!!! Remember the torch discussions in days gone by. How much of a departure above normal does one need for it to be considered a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Remember the torch discussions in days gone by. How much of a departure above normal does one need for it to be considered a torch? Record-breaking should qualify. Looks like 71 is the sunday record at ilg, phl and ttn. Another shot at records monday mainly S+E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: Record-breaking should qualify. Looks like 71 is the sunday record at ilg, phl and ttn. Another shot at records monday mainly S+E. Yeah can’t argue with that. But I guess a more objective approach for non potential record breaking days, a ____th percentile high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Yeah can’t argue with that. But I guess a more objective approach for non potential record breaking days, a ____th percentile high? Makes sense, if available. Somewhere in the 95 to 98% area seems right, rare but attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 Not sure about percentiles, but +15 seems torchy in the winter season tapering to +10 in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 I look at “torch” as being a period of time. Maybe like the NWS uses 3 days for a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 5, 2022 Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 Yeah, when average highs are 47-49 in SEPA the first weekend in March, anything over 65 is definitely torchy. So +15 to +20 works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2022 15 hours ago, iceman56 said: Not sure about percentiles, but +15 seems torchy in the winter season tapering to +10 in July. I wouldn't be surprised if those percentiles are not that far apart. Then again I don't know a site to view percentiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 00z/6th Ensemble Comparison 3/6-3/21. Normal 850mb temp around -1C. -EPO Ridge Cold Hit Coming Next Weekend; Not Looking Pattern Changing. The transition to spring is causing a bit more teleconnection volatility. Regardless within skill time we are seeing the ensembles relax/cut off -EPO ridge and re-establish a Pacific flow into western NOAM. This makes this Barneyesque arctic blast not look like the start of a cold pattern. Heck the EPS (not sure about this) makes it only a 2 or 3 day wonder. The GEPS & GEFS have a weaker second shot keeping us below normal longer. Regardless the within skill time for both the EPO & PNA suggest a thermal relaxation (Mar 15th-17th getting here) as the SPV recovers. There is a relationship too with the MJO getting to Phase 4. Now what will occur down the road beyond la la land (after first day of spring) if the WPO re-invigorates itself we could see another -EPO ridge arise. By then too we are in that three week lag period from the near SSW in which the NAO may go negative. The ensembles moved away from a -NAO period in this latest run. Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 10.5; PNA Day 11.5; AO Day 9.5 Recent Verification Tendency: More Negative AO & NAO; More Positive PNA GEFS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 8th, (0.5 shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th thru Mar 9th, (same) above normal anomalies Mar 10th & Mar 11th, (same) below normal anomalies Mar 12th into Mar 16th, (day earlier) above normal anomalies later Mar 16th thru Mar 18th, below normal anomalies Mar 19th, above normal anomalies Mar 20th & 21st (end of run). GEPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 8th, (0.5 shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th into Mar 9th, (day longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 9th into Mar 12th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 12th into Mar 17th, above normal anomalies later Mar 17th thru Mar 19th, below normal anomalies later Mar 20th into Mar 21st (end of run). EPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 8th (same) below normal anomalies later Mar 8th into Mar 9th, (1.5 longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 9th into Mar 12th, (2.5 shorter), below normal anomalies later Mar 12th thru Mar 14th, (new) near normal anomalies Mar 15th, below normal anomalies Mar 16th, (same start) above normal anomalies Mar 17th thru Mar 20th (end of run). NAEFS Week 2: Period of Mar 14th-Mar 21st. Slight confidence of above normal temps in SE NJ. Trending warmer (losing -EPO cold surge). Teleconnections: GEFS: -EPO thru 3/11 (-4 SD trof on 3/7), pos 3/12-3/21 (6 days earlier) -PNA thru 3/10; (new) pos 3/11-3/15; neg 3/12-3/21 +NAO, except neut 3/8 (another overhaul) GEPS: -EPO thru 3/11 (-4 SD trof 3/7); (day later) pos 3/12-3/21 -PNA except similar near neutral 3/11-3/15 +NAO (same neutral around 3/8) EPS: -EPO thru 3/11 (-3 SD trof 3/7); (same) pos 3/12-3/20 -PNA thru 3/10; (same) pos 3/11-3/15; (same) neg 3/16-3/20 +NAO (lost the negative period 3/8-3/13) WPO: Negative until 3/20-3/21 MJO: (WH Sectors) Weak Convection/Vel Potential Phase 5. GEFS COD to alive again Phase 4; EPS COD to alive again Phase 4 (runs ends 3/20). MVentrice Weak Phase 6 border to Phase 1 at end. Strat: NASA Wave 1 99th percentile peak (1200 gpm) dropping to near normal; Wave 2 peaked at 99.999 percentile (900 gpm) before collapsing below normal and recovering above 50th percentile at end. EC similar SPV/NAM: (GFS) Dips To near SSW (10 kts) before recovering to 1.5 SD above (40-45kts). SPV ensembles, dip to below normal (10 kts) recover to 40 kts and start collapsing 15-30kts at end. EC winds trof at +10 kts before recovering. An attempt strat connection with 3/12 then maybe after 3/21 again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Liking the trends next week after this weekend's brief cold shot...could see another torch period perhaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Parsley said: Liking the trends next week after this weekend's brief cold shot...could see another torch period perhaps. I'm hoping for upside surprise(s) this week with snow and likewise with temps thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: I'm hoping for upside surprise(s) this week with snow and likewise with temps thereafter. I’m with you Mitch. Ready to put a fork in Winter after the weekend. Also, between tomorrow and Friday/Saturday I’m hoping that frozen or not, we get 1” QPF. It’s pretty dry in my hood. Need some QPF to get Spring going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 8, 2022 Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 Yes, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 00z/9th Ensemble Comparison 3/9-3/24. Normal 850mb temp around 0C. Cold Hit Fleeting; Above Normal Pattern Following. The ensembles went the warmer EPS way this morning for next week. The more prolonged cold snap has been truncated with a +EPO (4 SD above) pattern flooding NOAM with above normal temperatures. The TPV which the GEFS (shocking result) had farthest south is now outlooked to retreat north. So given the EPO switch (and +NAO on the Atlantic side) one could say predominately warmer weather could be "baked" in thru the start of astronomical spring. Yes now we go the other way will the EPO really remain positive. So the week of March 20th could be colder or become colder in the days ahead. The MJO coming alive passes through Phase 4 which is a low confidence warm phase. But also for now wave 1,2 activity is muted until day 10. This might be the final death knell for the SPV if the MJO remains active in Phases 4,5. Of course this would set-up colder weather the last week in March (-NAO?). Might get a kick on the Pacific side as the WPO ramps up. Last time this happened a -EPO ridge developed from its kick start. Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 10.5; PNA Day 11.5; AO Day 9 Recent Verification Tendency: Neutral NAO & PNA ; More negative AO GEFS: (changes) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 10th, near normal anomalies night of Mar 10th, above normal anomalies later Mar 10th into Mar 12th, (3 days shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 12th thru Mar 13th, (3 days earlier) above normal anomalies Mar 14th thru Mar 24th (end of run). GEPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 12th, (3 days shorter/split) below normal anomalies later Mar 12th through Mar 13th, above normal anomalies Mar 14th into Mar 15th, near normal anomalies the night of Mar 15th, (longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 16th into Mar 22nd, near normal anomalies the night of Mar 22nd, above normal anomalies later Mar 22nd thru Mar 24th (end of run). EPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 8th into Mar 12th, (0.5 shorter), below normal anomalies later Mar 12th into Mar 14th, (3 days earlier) above normal anomalies later Mar 14th thru Mar 23rd (end of run). NAEFS Week 2: Period of Mar 17th-Mar 24th. Near 100 percent confidence of above normal temps. Big switch after losing 3/14. Teleconnections: GEFS: -EPO thru 3/11 (same), pos 3/12-3/24 (same) -PNA thru 3/10; (2 days longer) pos 3/11-3/17; neg 3/18-3/24 +NAO thru 3/21 (same), neg 3/22-3/24 GEPS: -EPO thru 3/10 (day shorter); pos 3/11-3/24 -PNA thru 3/10; (new) pos 3/11-3/17; neg 3/18-3/24 +NAO (except neutral 3/23) EPS: -EPO thru 3/10 (day shorter); pos 3/11-3/23 -PNA thru 3/10; (2 days longer) pos 3/11-3/17; neg 3/18-3/23 +NAO thru 3/19; (new) neg 3/20-3/21 WPO: Negative until 3/19-3/20 MJO: (WH Sectors) Weak Convection/Vel Potential Phases 1 & 3 GEFS COD to alive again going thru Phases 2 thru Phase 5; EPS COD to alive again Phase 2 thru Phase 5 (runs ends 3/23). MVentrice Blah Phase 8 to Blah Phase 1 at end. Strat: NASA Wave 1 falling back (slight rise on its way) to 50th percentile; Wave 2 troffing to 30th percentile then rising to 99th percentile peak (500 gpm). EC similar. SPV/NAM: No SSW wind reversal occurred at 10mb on 3/7. SPV climo wind reversal around 4/15. (GFS) recovers to 1.5 SD above before falling to near SSW (5 kts) at end. SPV ensembles recover to well above normal and then weakens to slightly above normal 15-20kts at end. EC winds end at 20kts. An attempt strat connection blocked. A warm weather connection next week. A strat connection beyond day 15? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 On 3/2/2022 at 6:49 PM, irishbri74 said: So the gfs has been doing this for a few runs… initial partial split: then, PV recoups a bit: and then, for the first time all winter, a couple runs in a row where it starts to split it again… we’ll have to keep an eye on that 2nd split potential. Coming to fruition. Details to be fine tuned it seems. may see some scandi blocking and maybe even Greenland blocking, keeping interior snow threat alive for a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 2 hours ago, irishbri74 said: Coming to fruition. Details to be fine tuned it seems. may see some scandi blocking and maybe even Greenland blocking, keeping interior snow threat alive for a bit. I don't think the ripple effects to this get here until April, maybe last week of March from the original split. Never had a wind reversal at 10mb. As for the original split I give credit to this weekend more to the -4SD EPO ridge than it working down from the strat. Beside our daughter is coming to visit from Australia (now that she can and still be permitted back into either country) in early April and only apropos that lousy April weather coincides with her visit. It does "look" like an earlier demise to the SPV so maybe we avoid crappy chilly weather first 10 days in May and get gardening season off to a sooner start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 14, 2022 Report Share Posted March 14, 2022 From NOAA's enso blog which discusses the possibility of a triple-dip nina. Three-year ninas are relatively rare, only 2 since 1950. However, nina re-strengthened in Feb, and NOAA gives it roughly a 50% chance of continuing. Predictions aren't very reliable this time of year; but, unfortunately I am not seeing many signs of shift away from nina with SOI (positive), Pacific trades (strong) and mjo (weak/IO) all stuck in nina mode. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-niña-update-three-bean-salad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted March 14, 2022 Report Share Posted March 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, Chubbs said: From NOAA's enso blog which discusses the possibility of a triple-dip nina. Three-year ninas are relatively rare, only 2 since 1950. However, nina re-strengthened in Feb, and NOAA gives it roughly a 50% chance of continuing. Predictions aren't very reliable this time of year; but, unfortunately I am not seeing many signs of shift away from nina with SOI (positive), Pacific trades (strong) and mjo (weak/IO) all stuck in nina mode. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/march-2022-la-niña-update-three-bean-salad Perhaps another summer filled with tropical and tornado threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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