Meteorological Spring Pattern Discussion

[Parsley]

7 minutes ago, CCsnow said:

13'' isn't really a winter to complain about for PHL, but it definitely is at your location. My main complaint is that our 6+ event here was very fine snow that blew everywhere, leaving chunks of bald grass in the parks. Maybe March can bring me 2-4'' of heavy wet snow. Otherwise...wait till next year

I’m ok with things here. Was plenty cold, had a handful of smaller snow events. I’d give it a C. If we get a small to moderate storm in March (under 6”) I’d bump it up to a B-.  

A large event would get me near normal. 

All in all, could have been worse. 

[Captain Lou]

3 hours ago, Parsley said:

Done, did we ever start?????

 

Lol.... us S and E peeps had 2 significant snows.... but not much sustainability. I believe this will be 6 out of the last 7 Februarys with paltry snow totals and warmer than normal temperatures at KPHL. Oh well...

[Parsley]

1 minute ago, Captain Lou said:

Lol.... us S and E peeps had 2 significant snows.... but not much sustainability. I believe this will be 6 out of the last 7 Februarys with paltry snow totals and warmer than normal temperatures at KPHL. Oh well...

Yeah, close to the coast were the winners for winter excitement. 

[Chubbs]

7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Still seeing pv split first week of March 

00z EPS day 5-10 below. EPS has a tpv split/AO- about a week out - won't have to wait for the paint to drip.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe a mid/late March Hail Mary? 

[susqushawn]

Just now, Heisenberg said:

Maybe a mid/late March Hail Mary? 

With the trough dumping out west seems like more of a SWFE setup than a gomex/nor'easter setup.  Like today's.  Latitude certainly would help as any storm of significance may pump heights ahead of it.  Need big time confluence in March to hold cold with that setup.  There is hope

[Mitchnick]

Eps snowfall says wait until next year.

[Parsley]

3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Eps snowfall says wait until next year.

CLIMO. Hard to bet against it.

[Allsnow]

I would give this winter a D so far. A good amount of cold but very little snow for it. December was a nightmare, January cold and frustrating given the amount of potential and February was a nightmare. 
 

We waited 5 years for a decent pac and learned it can be just as frustrating when it’s the only one doing the lifting. For DCA-nyc to cash in we need Ao/nao help. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Maybe a mid/late March Hail Mary? 

Like clockwork everything will flip in our favor by then but it’s probably too late for anything substantial 

[Heisenberg]

2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

With the trough dumping out west seems like more of a SWFE setup than a gomex/nor'easter setup.  Like today's.  Latitude certainly would help as any storm of significance may pump heights ahead of it.  Need big time confluence in March to hold cold with that setup.  There is hope

Id like one big event some where chase worthy. I want a April 97 can you make it happen susq 

[Rainshadow]

00z/25th Ensemble Comparison 2/25-3/12.  Normal 850mb temp around -2C. 

Well That Was Sudden.  Does The Weeble Wobble, But Not Fall Down?

Since I started with the headline might as well address the SPV.  Three wave 2 hits to it and the ensembles weaken the wind field to near normal. The EC stops at day 10 below so does not show whether it has a recovery or not.  Tom mentioned a SPV split, I don't know how that works exactly with regard to SSW definitions. Regardless wave 2 hits bring cold, maybe not necessarily to a theatre near you. If a true SSW event emerges, we are still talking the 2nd half of March for sustained impacts to arrive in the 70% likelihood it affects NOAM.

Now onto the next two weeks.  Plenty of conflicting forces going on. The EPO switch is on which decapitates its ridge and brings a temporary more zonal flow as the PNA is outlooked to switch to negative. The re-emergence of the -EPO ridge starts at day 7 which is within skill time.  By then the PNA SE ridge is outlooked to re-emerge also.  Here comes the angle of the cold rub.  While that +EPO thermal recovery is still there, the question becomes what comes next?  Nothing new as far as bias with the ensembles as the GEFS is once again the coldest and the EPS, which has been too warm at times, is the warmest.  As to why, the EPO ridge farther east as well as more of a -NAO look helps suppress the TPV farther south in Hudson's Bay in the GEFS as opposed to the GEPS and EPS.  The latter retrograde the -EPO ridge also which brings a farther west angle of the cold even as Canada looks to be iced beyond day 10.  March MJO Phase 6 kind of infers this thermal battle  and it is suppose to be stout.  I don't know. I wouldn't be that confident as the NAEFS about the second week of March being above normal, even if some of that still contains that brief +EPO switch.  Regardless the second half of March has that Smarchy progression as of now.   

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10.5;  PNA Day 12; AO Day 9.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  More Positive For All

GEFS: (day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies later Feb 25th (not as Barney 2/28) into Mar 4th, (0.5 longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 4th thru Mar 8th, below normal anomalies later Mar 8th thru Mar 12th, very tight thermal n/s gradient with us just cold (end of run). 

GEPS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies later Feb 25th thru Mar 1st, near normal anomalies Mar 2nd, (new, colder) below normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th,  (2 day can kick?) above normal anomalies Mar 5th into Mar 8th, (can kick also) below normal anomalies later Mar 9th & Mar 10th, above normal anomalies Mar 11th & Mar 12th, similar thermal N/S gradient to GFS, thermal anomalies farther north (end of run).

EPS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 1st, (now has been split) above normal anomalies later Mar 1st thru Mar 2nd, (new, colder) below normal anomalies Mar 2nd into Mar 3rd, (one day can kick) above normal anomalies later Mar 3rd thru Mar 11th (end of run).    

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Mar 5th-Mar 12th. Moderate confidence of above normal temperatures. Still trending warmer. 

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:       +EPO thru 3/1 (day shorter); neg 3/2-3/12 (-4 SD trof)

                  +PNA thru 3/3 (day longer); neg 3/4-3/12

                 +NAO, except neg on 3/9  (same otherwise)

GEPS:       +EPO  thru 3/1; (same, but missed it a week ago); neg 3/2-3/12 (-3 SD trof)   

                  +PNA thru 3/3 (same); neg 3/4-3/12

                 +NAO thru 3/2; (new) bouncing around neutral 3/3-3/9; pos 3/10-3/12

EPS:         +EPO thru 3/1 (day shorter);  neg 3/2-3/11 (-2.5 SD trof)

                 +PNA thru 3/2 (day longer); neg 3/3-3/11

                +NAO, except neg 3/3-3/4  (same otherwise)

WPO:        Positive thru 3/3 or 3/4 (same), then negative  

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strong Convection/Vel Potential Phase 4.

GEFS  Phase 3 to Phase 6;  EPS Phase 3 to Phase 6 border  (runs ends 3/11). 

MVentrice Strong Phase 4 border, Strong Phase 6/7 border at end. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 trofs to 5th percentile, recovers to near normal (650 gpm) at end; Double Wave 2 peak now, trofs to near normal and then the 3rd 99th percentile hit (850 gpm) forecast.  EC much stringer Wave 1 hit (1100 gpm), similar with Wave 2.  Previous Wave 2 hits verified closer to it.  

SPV/NAM:  (GFS) Dips To Normal (20 kts) and recovers to 1 SD above (35kts).  SPV ensembles end about 1 SD above 25-35 kts.  EC ends just less than 20 kts (day 10).  Decoupled from strat pair of cold hits. Anything tied to strat beyond day 15 for now.  

[ErieWX]

Regardless of what happens, I think I’m ready to break out of this current pattern and either trend colder or warmer. I’ve seen enough sleet and zr for a at least a decade  

[Rainshadow]

9 minutes ago, ErieWX said:

Regardless of what happens, I think I’m ready to break out of this current pattern and either trend colder or warmer. I’ve seen enough sleet and zr for a at least a decade  

I feel your pain as 1993-94 just outright stunk around Philadelphia.

[JCT777]

1 hour ago, ErieWX said:

Regardless of what happens, I think I’m ready to break out of this current pattern and either trend colder or warmer. I’ve seen enough sleet and zr for a at least a decade  

Indeed. Either be cold enough for a decent snow event or bring on the warmth / sunshine.

[eastonwx]

2 hours ago, ErieWX said:

Regardless of what happens, I think I’m ready to break out of this current pattern and either trend colder or warmer. I’ve seen enough sleet and zr for a at least a decade  

 

47 minutes ago, JCT777 said:

Indeed. Either be cold enough for a decent snow event or bring on the warmth / sunshine.

You know what's gonna happen around here: We'll split the difference; cold enough to be miserable, warm enough to give us rain/snow mixes. That's the March drill.

[Mitchnick]

2 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

I feel your pain as 1993-94 just outright stunk around Philadelphia.

A little worse at BWI. How I hated that winter.

[colonel_kurtz]

2 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

I feel your pain as 1993-94 just outright stunk around Philadelphia.

Right around 40" 3 miles north of the city, where do I sign up.

If this forum was around then I'll tell you one thing by late Jan 94 after Andy, Chris & Eastonwx had been posting pics of snowstorm after snowstorm & massive snowpacks they may have needed private security for protection from the city S & E crew. 

[White_Mtn_Wx]

6 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

I feel your pain as 1993-94 just outright stunk around Philadelphia.

Greatest winter of my life. Newly married, new to weather reporting to OCM David Rogers who sprung a Philly viewing audience network of call in reports. Wife and I were welcomed by him to visit in studio to watch a telecast anchored by Larry Kane whom we met. 12° and rain, learning to ice skate on ice 2’ thick on the Coatesville reservoir, cutting a section of that snow pack glacier at the end of March was like reliving every storm. 

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

Greatest winter of my life. Newly married, new to weather reporting to OCM David Rogers who sprung a Philly viewing audience network of call in reports. Wife and I were welcomed by him to visit in studio to watch a telecast anchored by Larry Kane whom we met. 12° and rain, learning to ice skate on ice 2’ thick on the Coatesville reservoir, cutting a section of that snow pack glacier at the end of March was like reliving every storm. 

It is all yours.  The route getting there with 24 hour plus power outages was too painful a price for me.  Plus that winter featured the absolute worst busted forecast I ever issued.

[ErieWX]

I think what I’m seeing is the smoothed out ensemble mean in the long range resolving to the SE ridge and can kicking the cold since it’s outside of EPO skill range

[Rainshadow]

00z/28th Ensemble Comparison 2/28-3/15.  Normal 850mb temp around -1C. 

Oh You Angle Of The Cold. 

There has been a consistency from three days ago about the EPO going colder, negative and the PNA going warmer, negative.  This is the rub.  Regardless the current +EPO/+PNA supports the down/up thermal pattern into early next week. The rub becomes what happens after that.  The Wave 2 hit is enough to split the SPV, but not equally (weaker daughter) and does not fit the definition of a SSW using wind reversal at 10mb. Then again that would be the last week in March if we were talking about a SSW event taking hold.  This brings us to what happens during the second week of March with that strong Wave 2 hit. The ensembles all trended warmer for our area as the "hit" remains farther to the west.  The warmest EPS held serve, while the perpetual ice box GEFS now has a "new" warm period. The GEPS which has been in the middle remains in the middle.  So yes the EPS and GEPS have remained consistent while the GEFS has trended warmer.  It looks like too much of a cold air flow in Canada for us to escape unscathed.  The models have had a negative PNA bias since the +PNA pattern established itself in January, so until it breaks the bias...I will not be as confident as the NAEFS again about being warm in week 2.  Although, the previous post which included Mar 7th is looking better right now.  As far as the MJO goes, now the EPS/GEFS has a collapse while MV has it getting to Phase 7 (warm in March).  Either way our  March cold phases are 8 thru 3 with really 2,3 being the highest confidence coldest.  So not much cold help there until the second half of the month.

 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10.5;  PNA Day 12; AO Day 9.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  More Positive NAO & PNA, More Negative AO

GEFS: (missed split) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 1st (busted Barney, no near 500 thicknesses), (new) above normal anomalies later Mar 1st & Mar 2nd, below normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th, (same) above normal anomalies later Mar 5th into Mar 9th, (now split) below normal anomalies night of Mar 9th, (new) above normal anomalies Mar 10th thru Mar 12th, below normal anomalies Mar 13th & Mar 14th, above normal anomalies Mar 15th (end of run). 

GEPS: (0.5 shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 1st, (warmer, longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 1st into Mar 3rd, (0.5 shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 3rd thru Mar 4th, (0.5 longer) above normal anomalies later Mar 5th into Mar 9th, (0.5 shorter) below normal anomalies later Mar 9th into Mar 10th, (same) above normal anomalies Mar 11th & Mar 12th, below normal anomalies Mar 13th, above normal anomalies Mar 14th, below normal anomalies Mar 15th (end of run).

EPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Mar 1st, (same) above normal anomalies later Mar 1st thru Mar 2nd, (0.5 longer) below normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th, (one day can kick) above normal anomalies Mar 5th thru Mar 12th, near normal anomalies Mar 13th, above normal anomalies Mar 14th (end of run).    

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Mar 8th-Mar 15th. Moderate confidence of above normal temperatures. Near normal approaching from Canada. 

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:       +EPO thru 3/1 (same); neg 3/2-3/15 (-4 SD trof on 3/7)

                  +PNA thru 3/2 (day shorter); neg 3/3-3/15

                 +NAO thru 3/2; neg 3/3-3/4; pos 3/5-3/8; neg 3/9-3/11; pos 3/12-3/15  (overhaul)

GEPS:       +EPO  thru 3/1; neg 3/2-3/10 (-3.5 SD trof 3/7); (new) pos 3/11-3/15    

                  +PNA thru 3/3 (same); neg 3/4-3/15

                 +NAO thru 3/2; neg 3/3-3/4; pos 3/5-3/15

EPS:         +EPO thru 3/1;  neg 3/2-3/14 (-3.75 SD trof 3/7)

                 +PNA thru 3/2 (same); neg 3/3-3/14

                +NAO, except neg 3/3-3/4  (same)

WPO:        Positive thru 3/3 or 3/4 (same), then negative,  GEFS/GEPS become positive after 3/11  

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strong Convection/Vel Potential Phase 4.

GEFS  Phase 4 to COD Phase 7;  EPS Phase 4 to COD Phase 7 (runs ends 3/14). 

MVentrice Strong Phase 4 border, Serviceable Phase 7 at end. 

             

Strat: NASA Wave 1 trofs to 5th percentile, recovers to peak at 85th percentile (1000 gpm) at end; Wave 2 peaks at 99.999 percentile hit (900 gpm) forecast.  EC stronger Wave 1 hit (1100 gpm), weaker with Wave 2 (875 gpm).    

SPV/NAM:  (GFS) Dips To below normal (10 kts) and recovers to 1 SD above (35kts).  SPV ensembles, dip to around near normal (20 kts) end about 1 SD above 25-35 kts.  EC winds trof at 15 kts before showing signs of recovering.  An attempted Strat connection with wave 2 hit.  

[JamieO]

AccuWeather's long range forecasters for a while now have been talking about a warm March then a late month/April spring slump, so I feel like we're heading towards a time when ErieWx, Tombo and I are being lectured by I-95ers that Winter Is Over while we're looking at 1/2 vis snow falling outside our window. Tony's post makes me feel like that's where we're headed. 

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, JamieO said:

AccuWeather's long range forecasters for a while now have been talking about a warm March then a late month/April spring slump, so I feel like we're heading towards a time when ErieWx, Tombo and I are being lectured by I-95ers that Winter Is Over while we're looking at 1/2 vis snow falling outside our window. Tony's post makes me feel like that's where we're headed. 

Lol I’ve been getting told that since mid feb that it was over yet, 20-30” later 

[Mr. X]

Tom.....got an outdoor soccer tournament the weekend of 3/12 in Bucks and we have to get back outside here. 40s we can work with, but this storm signal that weekend has got to go.