Rainshadow Posted May 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 16 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said: The May monthly max record at Philadelphia is 97 degrees during that mother of all May torches - 1991. What once looked like a one hit wonder now has a better than average shot of an official heatwave at PHL starting Friday, yes 3 consecutive 90 days in May constitutes a heatwave in my book. If it doesn't hit 90 Friday how bout the chance of the 1st 90 day of the year being an all in upper 90's roast. Friday strikes me as one of those days that Reading or Harrisburg hit 90F but we miss because the heat doesn't get here just yet. The overnight rain might have taken 1F off of highs. But, I have nothing for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireguy286 Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 GFS now trying for round 2 of the meandering cutoff low and chilly Memorial Day weekend. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 19, 2022 Report Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, fireguy286 said: GFS now trying for round 2 of the meandering cutoff low and chilly Memorial Day weekend. Lovely. Even though I’ll be in PA then, I pray that happens. Wind with pole beans out, would lead to an epic melt by the banana man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 19 hours ago, fireguy286 said: GFS now trying for round 2 of the meandering cutoff low and chilly Memorial Day weekend. Lovely. Good luck with that. My snarkiness aside, earlier this month we had a -NAO leading into it. Not the predicted case this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2022 00z/20th Ensemble Comparison 5/20-6/4. Normal 850mb temp around +11C. Be careful For What One Wishes For Memorial Day Weekend? I am not sure if the GEFS has entered into totally useless mode. But it is coming. Yes every summer has been above normal since.... But every summer still has some periods where we are not torching and warmer/misaligned timingwise GEFS members just mask those breaks. That being said with shorter wavelengths, this upcoming week's break is getting shortened as the WAR is being resistant and the cooler air is getting spent trying to move east. Part of this too is probably related to the MJO prediction of "jumping" over the cooler phases to refire in Phase 6. As for Memorial Day weekend itself, I missed that vomitous GFS run. Regardless we are getting within skill time where eastern NOAM trofiness has validity. So while we are not in last year's mode, the idea of a dry weekend is not holding much water at this point. Really not much beyond that to hang one's hat on any cooler look. We are in la la land, but the only teleconnection index that has a helpful look late is the NAO. Of course we can always say having a forever +EPO beyond day 8 is not likely to occur either. For now the ensembles are masking any breaks even if it is just for a day or two. Yes the GFS has not given up on a tropical system coming out of the Caribbean, it just keeps it at 360 hours. Next outlook I post, I will switch to June MJO Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At: NAO Day 11.5; PNA Day 9.5; AO Day 8.5 Recent Verification Tendency: more positive NAO, more negative PNA & AO GEFS: (summer mode, nothing to see different until September) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru entire run ending on Jun 4th. GEPS: (day longer) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 23rd, (day shorter) below normal anomalies May 24th, (3 days shorter) above normal anomalies May 25th thru May 28th, near normal anomalies May 29th, above normal anomalies May 30th thru Jun 4th (end of run). EPS: (0.5 longer) Above normal 850b temp anomalies into May 23rd, (2 days shorter) below normal anomalies May 24th, (2 days shorter) above normal anomalies May 25th into May 28th, near normal anomalies overnight May 28th, above normal anomalies May 29th thru Jun 2nd, near normal anomalies Jun 3rd. (end of run). NAEFS Week 2: Period of May 28th thru June 4th. Moderate confidence of above normal temperatures. Teleconnections: GEFS: -EPO thru 5/22; (day later); pos 5/22-6/3; neut 6/4 (can kick) -PNA thru 5/21 (day later); pos 5/22-5/27 (2 days shorter); neg 5/28-6/4 +NAO thru 6/3 (week longer); neut 6/4 GEPS: -EPO thru 5/22 (day longer); pos 5/23-6/4 -PNA thru 5/23 (3 days longer); pos 5/24-5/28; neg 5/29-5/30; pos 5/31-6/1; neg 6/2-6/4 +NAO thru 6/2 (same); neg 6/3-6/4 EPS: -EPO thru 5/22 (day longer); pos 5/23-6/3 -PNA thru 5/23; (new) pos 5/24-5/27; neg 5/28-6/3 +NAO thru 5/28 (2 days longer); neg 5/29-6/3 WPO: Still all negative MJO: (WH Sectors) Phase 8/1 border GEFS Phase 8 all the way to Phase 7; EPS Phase 8 to Phase 8 again (runs ends 6/3). MVentrice Phase 4 to Phase 6. Strat: NASA Wave 1 50th to 10th percentile & Wave 2 30th to dead as a door-nail percentile; EC see ya next winter. SPV/NAM: Trop 5/21 & 6/4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts