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2/24-2/25 Precipitation Event, GFS FRAM(s) Us, Reality? Pulp Fiction?


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Model differences narrowing for thur/fri with gfs/gefs shifting north and euro/gem shifting south. Snow threat decreasing for our area except far northern portion.  Freezing rain/sleet a good bet though. Below are Fram ice accumulation from euro (00), gem (00) and gfs (06).  Similar threat signal but different location within area. Early for details but this is the kind of system that can cause icing problems.

models-2022022000-f150.fram_acc.us_ma.gif

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5 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Model differences narrowing for thur/fri with gfs/gefs shifting north and euro/gem shifting south. Snow threat decreasing for our area except far northern portion.  Freezing rain/sleet a good bet though. Below are Fram ice accumulation from euro (00), gem (00) and gfs (06).  Similar threat signal but different location within area. Early for details but this is the kind of system that can cause icing problems.

models-2022022000-f150.fram_acc.us_ma.gif

As long as the GFS is (and it is) thermally colder than the IC(e is)ON, I give it zero consideration.  The last (potential) ice event anecdotally I'd say the GFS went about 3/4ths of the way toward the GGEM & ECMWF.   

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Looks like another events where the gfs is going with to much progressive nature blasting cold air to the coast. Should continue to correct towards other modeling keeping snow north of i80. Ice, different story 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like another events where the gfs is going with to much progressive nature blasting cold air to the coast. Should continue to correct towards other modeling keeping snow north of i80. Ice, different story 

Agree. Now it’s too wet with the front end 

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Would take - that would reduce the icing threat here.

Only problem is that it’s at my expense unless it goes so far north that we all get rain. I largely missed the power outages on thurs but 20 miles west it was bad. Also witnessed a tree branch come down across the street 

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14 hours ago, ErieWX said:

Only problem is that it’s at my expense unless it goes so far north that we all get rain. I largely missed the power outages on thurs but 20 miles west it was bad. Also witnessed a tree branch come down across the street 

You looked good last night. Euro, the furthest north, below. GEM/GFS have more icing in SE Pa/C NJ.

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2022022100.fram_acc.us_ma.gif

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Yes, and doesn't take much - Cologne Germany

sturm-zeynep-domplatte.jpg

Lol in the background, never takes her eyes off what is important, the cell phone.

I look at the IC(e is)ON 2m temps as the "all clear".  Anyone south/southeast/east of its 32F is likely OK given its cold 2M bias.  GFS says hold its beer, but that is another story. It make be tough going for parts of PA/ NW NJ.

index.thumb.gif.3de68066cd111d1292ab3a36e9c09f04.gif

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Yes, and doesn't take much - Cologne Germany

sturm-zeynep-domplatte.jpg

Yeah you’ll start to notice some icing on the trees at 32 but as soon as it drops to 31-30 that’s when everything got messy here almost instantly. I had lots of standing water from rain runoff and snow melt so that helped. Probably would’ve been much worse

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35 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Lol in the background, never takes her eyes off what is important, the cell phone.

I look at the IC(e is)ON 2m temps as the "all clear".  Anyone south/southeast/east of its 32F is likely OK given its cold 2M bias.  GFS says hold its beer, but that is another story. It make be tough going for parts of PA/ NW NJ.

index.thumb.gif.3de68066cd111d1292ab3a36e9c09f04.gif

That person is hysterical. It looks like she’s running down the steps. Maybe they were prepared and had ice creepers, or maybe they were on their posterior a half second later. LOL

 

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Just now, Bcudd said:

I’m about 15 miles north of Binghamton on Friday morning for the weekend.  What’s the timing look like for up there.  Sorry, haven’t seen any maps, so curious. 

Should start snowing Thursday night after midnight up there 

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