Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Model differences narrowing for thur/fri with gfs/gefs shifting north and euro/gem shifting south. Snow threat decreasing for our area except far northern portion. Freezing rain/sleet a good bet though. Below are Fram ice accumulation from euro (00), gem (00) and gfs (06). Similar threat signal but different location within area. Early for details but this is the kind of system that can cause icing problems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Chubbs said: Model differences narrowing for thur/fri with gfs/gefs shifting north and euro/gem shifting south. Snow threat decreasing for our area except far northern portion. Freezing rain/sleet a good bet though. Below are Fram ice accumulation from euro (00), gem (00) and gfs (06). Similar threat signal but different location within area. Early for details but this is the kind of system that can cause icing problems. As long as the GFS is (and it is) thermally colder than the IC(e is)ON, I give it zero consideration. The last (potential) ice event anecdotally I'd say the GFS went about 3/4ths of the way toward the GGEM & ECMWF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Looks like another events where the gfs is going with to much progressive nature blasting cold air to the coast. Should continue to correct towards other modeling keeping snow north of i80. Ice, different story 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like another events where the gfs is going with to much progressive nature blasting cold air to the coast. Should continue to correct towards other modeling keeping snow north of i80. Ice, different story Agree. Now it’s too wet with the front end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Agree. Now it’s too wet with the front end Yup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yup I’m thinking sne to Albany jackpot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m thinking sne to Albany jackpot Not sure yet where it will be. Wouldn’t shock me this bumps north more 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Not sure yet where it will be. Wouldn’t shock me this bumps north more Would take - that would reduce the icing threat here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Would take - that would reduce the icing threat here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro. Take the under on ice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted February 20, 2022 Report Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: Would take - that would reduce the icing threat here. Only problem is that it’s at my expense unless it goes so far north that we all get rain. I largely missed the power outages on thurs but 20 miles west it was bad. Also witnessed a tree branch come down across the street Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 hours ago, ErieWX said: Only problem is that it’s at my expense unless it goes so far north that we all get rain. I largely missed the power outages on thurs but 20 miles west it was bad. Also witnessed a tree branch come down across the street You looked good last night. Euro, the furthest north, below. GEM/GFS have more icing in SE Pa/C NJ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Euro 8-11 for sne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, Chubbs said: You looked good last night. Euro, the furthest north, below. GEM/GFS have more icing in SE Pa/C NJ. This one is tougher, occurring at night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: This one is tougher, occurring at night. Yes, and doesn't take much - Cologne Germany 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Chubbs said: Yes, and doesn't take much - Cologne Germany Lol in the background, never takes her eyes off what is important, the cell phone. I look at the IC(e is)ON 2m temps as the "all clear". Anyone south/southeast/east of its 32F is likely OK given its cold 2M bias. GFS says hold its beer, but that is another story. It make be tough going for parts of PA/ NW NJ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Chubbs said: Yes, and doesn't take much - Cologne Germany Yeah you’ll start to notice some icing on the trees at 32 but as soon as it drops to 31-30 that’s when everything got messy here almost instantly. I had lots of standing water from rain runoff and snow melt so that helped. Probably would’ve been much worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 On the GEM the jackpot zone is from Binghamton to just south of Albany Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mweav067 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Seeing the ice threat near the I-78 corridor brings up bad memories of February 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Lol in the background, never takes her eyes off what is important, the cell phone. I look at the IC(e is)ON 2m temps as the "all clear". Anyone south/southeast/east of its 32F is likely OK given its cold 2M bias. GFS says hold its beer, but that is another story. It make be tough going for parts of PA/ NW NJ. That person is hysterical. It looks like she’s running down the steps. Maybe they were prepared and had ice creepers, or maybe they were on their posterior a half second later. LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Ggem looks very icy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bcudd Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 I’m about 15 miles north of Binghamton on Friday morning for the weekend. What’s the timing look like for up there. Sorry, haven’t seen any maps, so curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2022 Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, Bcudd said: I’m about 15 miles north of Binghamton on Friday morning for the weekend. What’s the timing look like for up there. Sorry, haven’t seen any maps, so curious. Should start snowing Thursday night after midnight up there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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