Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Last 4 gfs. The vortex dropping in is trending less deformed and faster. Per HM's tweet, that is spoiling what would otherwise be a nice event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Rough winter round these parts...still hope for 1-3 type deal I suppose. Maybe March can surprise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z euro coming in slightly more amped with lead wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 What a winter for the shore! I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend towards a 3 to 6 type event down there 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Trends are favorable on the main Pacific vort. A better event is possible if the arctic vort can be improved by some combination of slowing, further west, or weaker/less compact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Nice icon run - the pacific wave trended better and the arctic wave didn't get worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Nice icon run - the pacific wave trended better and the arctic wave didn't get worse it phases in that piece of energy by Duluth which helps pull coastal closer. We will see if anything else goes towards that. Doesn't really excite me much until something else shows it besides the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 Arctic wave looks worse on gfs - faster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 despite a significant trend to drop NS faster, still the same ho-hum result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, susqushawn said: despite a significant trend to drop NS faster, still the same ho-hum result See the hm tweet posted above, faster is worse if NS is consolidated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 10, 2022 Report Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: it phases in that piece of energy by Duluth which helps pull coastal closer. We will see if anything else goes towards that. Does really excite me much until something else shows it besides the icon Icon is better at being Dr. No than being a lone wolf Dr. Yes. It feels like the old ETA to me, that some previous versions were better than this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 NAM'd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 Flow backed across most models at 0z, 6z nam continues that theme. Allows initial qpf burst along arctic boundary to blossom farther NW. Might even start as rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 3k otoh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 6z rgem starts as rain then transitions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 6z rgem precip, rain/snow map not updated yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 Icon a dusting at the shore. I won't post a map so as not to jinx the NAM'ing and RGEM'ing juju Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 NAM/RGEM combo...I checked the stats: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 NWS leaning progressive: Sunday morning the southern stream energy will begin to eject east and then northeast ahead of the approaching mid-level low pressure. Simultaneously, the upper level low will be approaching from the west with guidance being fairly consistent on FGEN forcing developing Sunday morning. The sloped ascent appears to setup from southeast NJ to eastern PA. The latest run of the GFS and ECWMF have most of the QPF across central NJ Sunday morning while the CMC has the QPF over eastern PA. The other item of related interest here is the development of surface low pressure off the NC coast Sunday morning. The CMC keeps the mid-level low closed off longer and less progressive, allowing for a slightly deeper and further west surface low. Guidance is also showing another wave diving southeast out of south/ central Canada Sunday afternoon. This would favor a slightly more progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest GEFS/ EPS/ and GEPS, a slightly more progressive pattern appears favored at this time. The precipitation- type for this event will likely be all snow as thermal profiles rapidly cool Sunday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 6z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 11, 2022 Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 6z gfs holds firm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2022 GEM/RGEM shifting NW make it more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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