Jump to content

Winter Storm & Rain Threats (Day 5 & Beyond) III


Recommended Posts

In the scope of "GFS sniffing out long-range threats" - this will probably be the next time frame to focus on something after this weekend's system. GFS has been trying to show some type of overrunning event in the Eastern US around February 5

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ACwx said:

In the scope of "GFS sniffing out long-range threats" - this will probably be the next time frame to focus on something after this weekend's system. GFS has been trying to show some type of overrunning event in the Eastern US around February 5

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

Looks messy for my area. Definitely want some southward movement 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, ErieWX said:

Looks messy for my area. Definitely want some southward movement 

That period around next Friday looks tough down here and possibly even in my area. Euro has looked decent with a big man high out in front 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That period around next Friday looks tough down here and possibly even in my area. Euro has looked decent with a big man high out in front 

Yeah in 18z gfs it takes a sharp cut north into SW Ontario. Less ice/mixing but more heavy rain on front end which is still an issue with our snowpack 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2/4-2/5 or so may trend more favorably.  Cutters are generally being modeled.  

Pros: 

- split flow w/ active stj

- developing +PNA

- confluence from broad TPV may blanket HP over top (similar to today - always a timing issue w/ no Greenland block)

- strong qpf signal and ensemble consensus (at least on GEFS)

I imagine we eat a cutter then a wave develops along the baroclinic zone, which will represent a sharp temp gradient.  Wouldn't be surprised to see guidance shift mean storm flow SE as lead time diminishes.  

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_37.png

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_37.png

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_33.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Only thing I brought home tonight came from the liquor store 

I baked fudge brownies with my daughter today. That's should make the pain go away a bit.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jamesk262 said:

6z GFS perfect for FEB 6th.  Atleast something nice that look at until 12z run when it's different.  I know I'm really reaching here.

On it's still on the 12z. But guess where the max snowfall is? You guessed it.....Virginia  lol

But I would take it verbatim in a heartbeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

On it's still on the 12z. But guess where the max snowfall is? You guessed it.....Virginia  lol

But I would take it verbatim in a heartbeat.

Looks like a nice setup too...huge precip field 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

GFS actually has 3 systems, the first being the best. I'm excited.

One of them has to work out, right??? 😜

It’s good to see there are threats to track during a time that looked suspect for cold not all that long ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...