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Winter Storm & Rain Threats (Day 5 & Beyond) III


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In the scope of "GFS sniffing out long-range threats" - this will probably be the next time frame to focus on something after this weekend's system. GFS has been trying to show some type of overrunning event in the Eastern US around February 5

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

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2 hours ago, ACwx said:

In the scope of "GFS sniffing out long-range threats" - this will probably be the next time frame to focus on something after this weekend's system. GFS has been trying to show some type of overrunning event in the Eastern US around February 5

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

Looks messy for my area. Definitely want some southward movement 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That period around next Friday looks tough down here and possibly even in my area. Euro has looked decent with a big man high out in front 

Yeah in 18z gfs it takes a sharp cut north into SW Ontario. Less ice/mixing but more heavy rain on front end which is still an issue with our snowpack 

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2/4-2/5 or so may trend more favorably.  Cutters are generally being modeled.  

Pros: 

- split flow w/ active stj

- developing +PNA

- confluence from broad TPV may blanket HP over top (similar to today - always a timing issue w/ no Greenland block)

- strong qpf signal and ensemble consensus (at least on GEFS)

I imagine we eat a cutter then a wave develops along the baroclinic zone, which will represent a sharp temp gradient.  Wouldn't be surprised to see guidance shift mean storm flow SE as lead time diminishes.  

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_37.png

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_37.png

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_33.png

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3 hours ago, Jamesk262 said:

6z GFS perfect for FEB 6th.  Atleast something nice that look at until 12z run when it's different.  I know I'm really reaching here.

On it's still on the 12z. But guess where the max snowfall is? You guessed it.....Virginia  lol

But I would take it verbatim in a heartbeat.

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54 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

GFS actually has 3 systems, the first being the best. I'm excited.

One of them has to work out, right??? 😜

It’s good to see there are threats to track during a time that looked suspect for cold not all that long ago.

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