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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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49 minutes ago, blinkers88 said:

Will the winds be a problem with this storm?

from NWS: 

Wind hazards: Strongest winds are expected to come with the easterly
winds Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest wind speeds are
likely to be along the coast. There is potential for wind advisory
conditions along the coast, but still some uncertainty so will hold
off on issuing an advisory for now.
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4 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

from NWS: 


Wind hazards: Strongest winds are expected to come with the easterly
winds Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest wind speeds are
likely to be along the coast. There is potential for wind advisory
conditions along the coast, but still some uncertainty so will hold
off on issuing an advisory for now.

Yawn

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

I think we're getting hoodwinked by what appears to be a faster progression of the vort.  In particular while it's in the deep south before rounding the bend.

The projected trough is evolving from a broad stretched out appearance to more consolidated at the base.  The nadir of the trough and exit region where the LP develops changes very little, it's just tightening up.  

I kept wondering why the surface lp was not responding to the apparent change in speed of the trough.  So it's not really an improvement despite appearing as such.

I don't have visuals, just an ob, hope that makes sense

Have to careful interpreting run-to-run changes. Track itself isn't changing much.

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The euro public charts now include temperature profiles. Below is the profile for my location (5 miles SE is the closest) at 7pm showing snow at the start. Only have plots every 6-hours. Raining and well above freezing at 1AM. I cropped some of the severe weather info to improve legibility.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/

epsprofile.png

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47 minutes ago, Seanvolz98 said:

Also interesting situation where latitude will help a lot more here than longitude. Looks like DC/Balt may outperform us simply because they’re further west and faster precip arrival before we lose our temps aloft 

I think you've got latitude and longitude reversed here, no? DC/Balt has a greater longitude than Phila.; we've got the greater latitude.

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15 minutes ago, jimmosk said:

I think you've got latitude and longitude reversed here, no? DC/Balt has a greater longitude than Phila.; we've got the greater latitude.

HA! Yes thanks for the fix- on vacation I’ve turned my brain off. But yes those south and west have the advantage here

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Psuhoff made a good post over on amwx. If you go back and look at older runs when the gfs crushed the city there was  a much better block. Oh well, here I come tombo!

Thanks for the chase recommendations. I'll probably be leaving late saturday night or Sunday morning. I'm only going up there for the few hours if the ccb wreckage. There going to be 1-3" per hour snows for a few hours somewhere in W NY. Knowing my luck it will be 10 miles N or S of me.

Pattern looks northern stream dominated going forward, jprobably favoring lakes and NE. Just going to have to time waves and have one dive far enough south for our next threat. 

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17 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Psuhoff made a good post over on amwx. If you go back and look at older runs when the gfs crushed the city there was  a much better block. Oh well, here I come tombo!

Thanks for the chase recommendations. I'll probably be leaving late saturday night or Sunday morning. I'm only going up there for the few hours if the ccb wreckage. There going to be 1-3" per hour snows for a few hours somewhere in W NY. Knowing my luck it will be 10 miles N or S of me.

Pattern looks northern stream dominated going forward, jprobably favoring lakes and NE. Just going to have to time waves and have one dive far enough south for our next threat. 

Yup. P8 is a dry cold loook in January. Hopefully something can dive far enough south 

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