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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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I think it has been mentioned.. but once modeling is consistently showing a cutter.. I personally don’t ever remember a time when it comes back for I95…   That being said the Gefs are lost and totally a weenie tease at this point ..  congrats TOMBO … plz post pics for us 

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Everyone playing in the snow on Monday.

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

C’mon gefs member 26!! 1 in a milllion chance..maybe..

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5 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

Honestly I'm sort of sweating this one out here in northern Berks. If there's any sort of rain/snow line with this it will reach up here from my previous experience last winter.

I'm here in Lancaster below you, and am hoping to hit the 4" mark and dry slot, just keep the rain away.  We'll see, at least we know we'll have a storm to track.  Can't ask for much more at this point.

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19 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

Honestly I'm sort of sweating this one out here in northern Berks. If there's any sort of rain/snow line with this it will reach up here from my previous experience last winter.

Reading this Am's Mount Holly AFD, they mention the I-78 corridor as possible line of invading warmer air and a switchover to rain to the south. Of course, that was the early morning, will likely be different this afternoon.

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22 minutes ago, Dhen398 said:

I think it has been mentioned.. but once modeling is consistently showing a cutter.. I personally don’t ever remember a time when it comes back for I95…   That being said the Gefs are lost and totally a weenie tease at this point ..  congrats TOMBO … plz post pics for us 

It's not coming back. The issue for I95 is whether it snows for 30 minutes or 3 hours.

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Just checked the Cobb method for phl and ilg off the 12z gfs. Phl - 0.7", ilg - 4.4", difference is 3 hours when phl is rain/snow mix with no accumulation.

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

I'll probably be somewhere between pitt and buffalo. I mean totals with this one wont be close to last years two events but I do think someone will get 20

Consider Altmar, NY. 5 hour drive, already a decent snowpack to enjoy and you’ll be able to enjoy some LES after the main show.(Actually, in terms of rates, the LES may be the main show)

Stay at Tailwater Lodge with your girl. Nice spa, restaurant and bar. Heck, you might even run into Parsley, and maybe you could talk Tom into taking a ride down from Lowville to have a beverage and talk man cold.

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41 minutes ago, eastonwx said:

Reading this Am's Mount Holly AFD, they mention the I-78 corridor as possible line of invading warmer air and a switchover to rain to the south. Of course, that was the early morning, will likely be different this afternoon.

I hope they mean 5 miles or more south of I-78,  considering I-78 is a quarter mile north of my house. 

That said, we got a lot of sleet here last year with the one storm when the models didn't show sleet making it this far north. 

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The mid-level warmth is not going to be denied. I’m wondering though about surface cold. My gut tells me the surface will erode pretty quickly also with such a strong flow, but it’s a long way up from 8 degrees in the morning and we know low level cold can be a stubborn thing. ZR anyone? NAM thermals as we get closer.

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2 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Ugly for 95 folks. 

It was pretty for one sounding run two days ago.

The other more confident features of this storm.  Adjusting downward from the pornographic wind gust maps that say what pcpn induced inversion still looks like 40-50 mph peak gusts possible away from the coast.  The strong wind surge is relatively short, so depending upon the timing with the high tide cycle looks like greatest tidal flooding threat would be up the Delaware Bay into possibly the lower Delaware River.

@PRINCETON ANGLER, yeah I wouldn't discount it at this point especially if some ageostrophic NE wind continues longer than modeled.

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Very interesting event coming up. Glad I have my database of past winter storms and look over those archived maps.  I must have saved a ton from folks like Tony and other seasoned forecasters out there... 

Always like to go back to the blizzard of 96, mainly look at the upper air.  Obviously an extreme case, but non the less always good to compare the nice ingredients for those big storms and then check against upper air wise to this event..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0108.php

Now another event back during a La Nina season was February 11th through 14th, 2014.  That one had a negative tilted upper air trough. 
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0213.php

Back to upcoming event, yeh, not the setup we want.  Just a wait and see.. 

Latest European run looks to pound Tennessee and Western NC with significant snows.  Plus a pretty good front end thump for WV and western VA, then into central and western PA.  Then up to New England, except coastal points.   

In the meantime, will all be watching how things shape up over the weekend...

 

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I think we're getting hoodwinked by what appears to be a faster progression of the vort.  In particular while it's in the deep south before rounding the bend.

The projected trough is evolving from a broad stretched out appearance to more consolidated at the base.  The nadir of the trough and exit region where the LP develops changes very little, it's just tightening up.  

I kept wondering why the surface lp was not responding to the apparent change in speed of the trough.  So it's not really an improvement despite appearing as such.

I don't have visuals, just an ob, hope that makes sense

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