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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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Everyone playing in the snow on Monday.

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

C’mon gefs member 26!! 1 in a milllion chance..maybe..

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At the end of the day, if you h5 is closed and neg, capturing the surface this far inland, it's gonna rain/taint on the coastal plain, especially with HP offshore.  Need this capture to occur farther east to salvage more front end frozen. 

Trend was east up top but it ultimately settles in to this same positioning in the end

image.png.cf291093e5f9160f11fa885d4fd3436d.png

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

At the end of the day, if you h5 is closed and neg, capturing the surface this far inland, it's gonna rain/taint on the coastal plain, especially with HP offshore.  Need this capture to occur farther east to salvage more front end frozen. 

Trend was east up top but it ultimately settles in to this same positioning in the end

image.png.cf291093e5f9160f11fa885d4fd3436d.png

Good analysis above. Slight improvement but not enough to make much difference here.

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Low res gefs with their predominantly more favorable tracks indicate the warm surge in SE PA...

image.png.8bce94814247e45e9b0aeb60c00138d1.png

Gefs have some weenie solutions in the mix too but it just feels off attm for all the points noted above and previously with bl and mid level warmth surge concerns

06Z-20220113_GEFSMA_prec_ptypens-78-114-200-100.gif.86109b7367eb825084eacd56a0a2a778.gif

 

 

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I just don’t see this changing at this point. We keep getting these  slight improvements but still with the same result. I don’t think I ever remember such a quick model turnaround (this past Tuesday) that just seemingly has locked in. This will be a good storm for the areas of the interior that are crazy below avg. 

 

Its funny how the fear was out to sea but know Tombo might sleet for a bit lol. That’s weather for you Susan. 
 

It’s been a rough start for us (torch December, miss south, miss north east and now west) The pattern looks cold going forward so hopefully something hits us before the hostile look returns in February 

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H5 tilt argues against this convenient NE motion imo.  Helps interior locations as damage done around philly already.  

Either way upper levels have improved on the gfs suite since 12z yesterday.  Better than trending the other way.  Hopefully eps follow suit

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh96-108.gif

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Great obs. and points by all. Looks to my eyes anyway that the consistency of the past few runs stopped with this one. The low takes a brief jog NW from the NC coast...but instead heads NE across the Delaware Bay then east of Long Island vs. of continuing NW into Central Pa. like the previous runs. See if this is a trend or not...

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06 icon shows what is needed for a better front-end.  Icon and gfs (6 hour earlier to match low position) surface maps below.  ICON coastal front holds warm air at bay for a couple of hours. Note ICON wind barbs are lighter with more of a northerly component onshore. May get some help from coastal front on mesoscale models. Of course there are other differences, track of ICON 500mb low is further east.  Just something to keep an eye on.

icon_mslp_wind_neus_33.png

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_16.png

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As an aside, funny how the 6z Gfs run starts with a big ocean storm off the SE and the last panel at 384 hrs, you get the attached.

I guess it means the pattern is locked for the next 2 weeks.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

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Fwiw, Nam takes the slp briefly over the eastern panhandle of Florida, then jumps it to the GA coast. That scenario would probably be best because being further south with the main vort from the kicker, it feels less of the kicker's tug north until it's far enough east. The risk being, however, there's not enough of a tug to pull it north.

But alas, I  weenie dream.

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9 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Nam takes the slp briefly over the eastern panhandle of Florida, then jumps it to the GA coast. That scenario would probably be best because being further south with the main vort from the kicker, it feels less of the kicker's tug north until it's far enough east. The risk being, however, there's not enough of a tug to pull it north.

But alas, I  weenie dream.

NAM at end-of-run vs GFS in Southeast. NAM has stronger coastal front and is holding cold air in better.  Just something to watch as we get into the range of mesoscale models, currently NAM is way beyond its useful range.

 

models-2022011300-f090.sfct_b.us_se.gif

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Just now, Chubbs said:

Low is faster, further east in SE

Yea improvement over that god awful 00z run, then again, with this low sp tightly wrapped up and closed it's going to be challenging to impossible to get this into GEFS territory

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yea improvement over that god awful 00z run, then again, with this low sp tightly wrapped up and closed it's going to be challenging to impossible to get this into GEFS territory

Remember the drastic short term changes the Euro made with last Monday. It's still possible. Add to that the seasonal pattern of progressive flow seeming to prevail every time, and we're good 90 hrs out from start time.

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Very smart people here and enjoy reading. I’m going very unscientific here, but it seems like we always are asking for the the storms to come west on last storms. They trick us early into thinking we have a chance only to let us down closer to the storm. I like this one starting West and believe it will push east on models once the energy pops on shore past the Rockies. Just off past board observations. 

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  • anowal01 changed the title to Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event
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