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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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Everyone playing in the snow on Monday.

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

C’mon gefs member 26!! 1 in a milllion chance..maybe..

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster 

DT used to say that if you don’t go neutral to negative before you cross the Mississippi River, you’ve got a chance.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mitchg said:

Slightly further west, high pressure gave way faster. 

yea, all tied to the tpv being faster to eject out. Only thing thats holding high in place 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

nope, pretty much the same, maybe a tad west 

Little more press over the top. Not sure if it matters. 
 

the vort is stronger down south, which responds to increase the jet divergence. Lotta mixed signals here. 

AC2CDC95-AB5F-49AE-835E-9D7A406D21CD.gif

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14 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Yep. And out west is coming onshore weaker. We’ll see how this plays out, I’ll say it’s equal to or less amp’d than 18z.

 

12 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

@57 , height field is less amp’d than 18z. Like where this is heading. 

 

D93B7B86-610C-4EEC-B1DD-E28D7C0BB6DB.gif

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BTW On Joe & Joe show Bill Goodman brought up they are doing dropsondes into the Pacific trof and have been. That quantum change in the output might have coincided with that. Not everything as the Atlantic got muddier too.

 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

lol the gefs are a BM track lol

Consensus seems to be that backside vort is causing havoc in guidance. If it drops it, it tugs storm west? Or does it stay back or over the top and act as a kicker. Talk about uncertainties 

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1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Consensus seems to be that backside vort is causing havoc in guidance. If it drops it, it tugs storm west? Or does it stay back or over the top and act as a kicker. Talk about uncertainties 

Yup, thats been the whole story since day 1, how much interaction with northern stream s/w

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  • anowal01 changed the title to Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event
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