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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Any update on 12z figures for Erie? Thanks brother 

Couldn't get much better - NAM Cobb is 32.7" (26" with compaction) from 2.44". Has 12.6" in 3-hours and 10" of wrap-around/lake effect. A couple of hours of mixing early.

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Snippet from Lwx NWS morning Afd

TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

I performed a cursory analysis of current conditions this
morning and I found that temps are running a few degrees cooler
than forecast with dewpoints in the single digits. Up stream
observations in NC and southern VA suggests that snow is
over performing. I have adjusted my snow ratios this morning to
account for the well below freezing layer ahead of the
precipitation which should allow for higher snow rates. Initial
onset of precipitation is on track this morning and snow should
fluffy to start before switching over to wet snow as the layer
starts to warm and transitions over to a wintry mix for most
areas along and east of I-81. I will continue to monitor current
conditions to see if I need to up snow totals. It wouldn`t
surprise me if we get higher snow totals further eastward than
expected due to extremely cool air mass ahead of this system.
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3 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

@Mitchnick and @Chubbs thanks...I think I'm making a last second adjustment to Erie. Never been there and yeah it's not niagra falls it seems like a nice place to visit ;). 

If you go with Erie I would normally say your best bet is right off I-90 in Summit near the casino. Elevation is around 1300’ so you get nice upslope flow from the lake effect snow. Only thing is that it is usually with NW flow so it may make less of a difference on the front end with NE flow. Any short mixing would be less of a threat though with elevation advantage 

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24 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2WINTER_ANI (25).gif

If that energy dropping down from the Midwest is just 2 hours slower, it delays sucking the southern system NW, which increases snow totals. It's times like these when you really have to buckle your weenie snow goggles tight to get through the day of denials and radar hallucinations. 

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1 hour ago, ErieWX said:

If you go with Erie I would normally say your best bet is right off I-90 in Summit near the casino. Elevation is around 1300’ so you get nice upslope flow from the lake effect snow. Only thing is that it is usually with NW flow so it may make less of a difference on the front end with NE flow. Any short mixing would be less of a threat though with elevation advantage 

Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar 

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28 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar 

Yeah that’s a nice area. You’re near lots of restaurants and shopping and you should see decent totals 

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12 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Thanks will be curious if there's any mix, we'll see 

Yeah NWS mentions heavy wet snow but that’s all. From my experience NAM and radar report that as mix sometimes but yeah time will tell

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar 

Brutal drive up to Erie, Pa
my guess at that elevation…you get nuked. My guess 15-18 including LE

many years ago I was in Edinboro for a LE event…got smoked with around 24-30 inches

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