susqushawn Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, Chubbs said: 12z NAM a little better for I95 and has underestimated snow in western North + South Carolina. Looks nice could actually get some decent rates the where the snow hangs on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 35 minutes ago, Chubbs said: 12z NAM a little better for I95 and has underestimated snow in western North + South Carolina. Also significantly increases ice threat for north and west (over its own 6z run). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 43 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Any update on 12z figures for Erie? Thanks brother Icon, that has been rock steady imby with 4-5", is at 16". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Mitchnick said: Icon, that has been rock steady imby with 4-5", is at 16". Edit: 18" lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Rgem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Any update on 12z figures for Erie? Thanks brother Couldn't get much better - NAM Cobb is 32.7" (26" with compaction) from 2.44". Has 12.6" in 3-hours and 10" of wrap-around/lake effect. A couple of hours of mixing early. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Couldn't get much better - NAM Cobb is 32.7" (26" with compaction) from 2.44". Has 12.6" in 3-hours and 10" of wrap-around/lake effect. A couple of hours of mixing early. Enjoy @Heisenberg! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 NAM ticked a bit snowier and icier to the NW of I95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Snippet from Lwx NWS morning Afd TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... I performed a cursory analysis of current conditions this morning and I found that temps are running a few degrees cooler than forecast with dewpoints in the single digits. Up stream observations in NC and southern VA suggests that snow is over performing. I have adjusted my snow ratios this morning to account for the well below freezing layer ahead of the precipitation which should allow for higher snow rates. Initial onset of precipitation is on track this morning and snow should fluffy to start before switching over to wet snow as the layer starts to warm and transitions over to a wintry mix for most areas along and east of I-81. I will continue to monitor current conditions to see if I need to up snow totals. It wouldn`t surprise me if we get higher snow totals further eastward than expected due to extremely cool air mass ahead of this system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 hours ago, Heisenberg said: @Mitchnick and @Chubbs thanks...I think I'm making a last second adjustment to Erie. Never been there and yeah it's not niagra falls it seems like a nice place to visit ;). If you go with Erie I would normally say your best bet is right off I-90 in Summit near the casino. Elevation is around 1300’ so you get nice upslope flow from the lake effect snow. Only thing is that it is usually with NW flow so it may make less of a difference on the front end with NE flow. Any short mixing would be less of a threat though with elevation advantage 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: If that energy dropping down from the Midwest is just 2 hours slower, it delays sucking the southern system NW, which increases snow totals. It's times like these when you really have to buckle your weenie snow goggles tight to get through the day of denials and radar hallucinations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, White_Mtn_Wx said: Enjoy @Heisenberg! Thanks and thanks everyone, really hoping for 2 feet. I got a late start today probably going to run into snow on turnpike. Hope it isn't too bad 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, ErieWX said: If you go with Erie I would normally say your best bet is right off I-90 in Summit near the casino. Elevation is around 1300’ so you get nice upslope flow from the lake effect snow. Only thing is that it is usually with NW flow so it may make less of a difference on the front end with NE flow. Any short mixing would be less of a threat though with elevation advantage Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 28 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar Yeah that’s a nice area. You’re near lots of restaurants and shopping and you should see decent totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, ErieWX said: Yeah that’s a nice area. You’re near lots of restaurants and shopping and you should see decent totals Thanks will be curious if there's any mix, we'll see 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Thanks will be curious if there's any mix, we'll see Yeah NWS mentions heavy wet snow but that’s all. From my experience NAM and radar report that as mix sometimes but yeah time will tell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Hey I'm staying at the country inn off peach street checked elevation its like 1200 you familiar Brutal drive up to Erie, Pa my guess at that elevation…you get nuked. My guess 15-18 including LE many years ago I was in Edinboro for a LE event…got smoked with around 24-30 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Brutal drive up to Erie, Pa my guess at that elevation…you get nuked. My guess 15-18 including LE Ugh..hope new tires pay off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Heisi you are not missing this Eagles game. That is for sure! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Light snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 May see a burst of snow tomorrow am under that ULL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 It would be nice to wake up to some flakes falling after the downpours overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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