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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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28 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

.6" of accretion?    That would be a pretty significant icing event.      I'm going with 1/3 of the snow accum and ice accretion.    Warm air is going to scour pretty quickly on this.    Think we'll be around 40 Monday morning.

If I were a forecaster I would go with 2" at the most and likely around an inch or less in our neck of the proverbial woods!

 

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Current radar looks further south and precipitation expanding further east than the GFS depicts....imho.... Atmosphere already moistening up in NC. Latest model runs seem to be trending to an earlier start time which would be better for a longer period of frozen precip..... we shall see

Screenshot_20220115-160619_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220115-155601_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, iceman56 said:

.6" of accretion?    That would be a pretty significant icing event.      I'm going with 1/3 of the snow accum and ice accretion.    Warm air is going to scour pretty quickly on this.    Think we'll be around 40 Monday morning.

NWS in agreement, pretty tame event given we start out at 7 degrees in the morning.    WWA basically saying our usual coating to an inch.

Sunday Night
Snow and sleet before 11pm, then freezing rain between 11pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Temperature falling to near 26 by 8pm, then rising to around 40 during the remainder of the night. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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14 minutes ago, Captain Lou said:

Current radar looks further south and precipitation expanding further east than the GFS depicts....imho.... Atmosphere already moistening up in NC. Latest model runs seem to be trending to an earlier start time which would be better for a longer period of frozen precip..... we shall see

Screenshot_20220115-160619_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220115-155601_Chrome.jpg

At first glance you may be comparing 18z (1pm) with a 430pm radar?

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19 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

At first glance you may be comparing 18z (1pm) with a 430pm radar?

Radar pic taken @ 4 pm. You are correct. When I see 18, I automatically think of 6 o'clock. Still seems precip shield is somewhat further south and east than expected... thank you for the correction.

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19 minutes ago, Captain Lou said:

Radar pic taken @ 4 pm. You are correct. When I see 18, I automatically think of 6 o'clock. Still seems precip shield is somewhat further south and east than expected... thank you for the correction.

Because some of refuse to see the glass as anything devoid of water molecules, and if you care to, can you please share images to support.

I could use some support in my straw grasping. Edit: I'm being sincere here

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1 hour ago, iceman56 said:

NWS in agreement, pretty tame event given we start out at 7 degrees in the morning.    WWA basically saying our usual coating to an inch.

Sunday Night
Snow and sleet before 11pm, then freezing rain between 11pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Temperature falling to near 26 by 8pm, then rising to around 40 during the remainder of the night. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Agreed ...a minor "winter" event for NW Chesco as most have seen for days!

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3 hours ago, iceman56 said:

.6" of accretion?    That would be a pretty significant icing event.      I'm going with 1/3 of the snow accum and ice accretion.    Warm air is going to scour pretty quickly on this.    Think we'll be around 40 Monday morning.

wxsim is drunk 

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59 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Because some of refuse to see the glass as anything devoid of water molecules, and if you care to, can you please share images to support.

I could use some support in my straw grasping. Edit: I'm being sincere here

Notice the earlier pics. I was a few hours off as far as the gfs run went, however, precip still seems somewhat further east and south than expected. Not a huge deal but I'll take anything I can get...... or hallucinate.... 😂😂😂

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19 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Last second recommendations, thinking either near Niagara falls or like Dunkirk NY 

According to the WRF you only need to go to Breezewood 😅 No but really Dunkirk seems to get nailed in all of the other maps

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8 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

@Chubbs or whoever, how's the snow growth look during the height of the deform band out near niagra? Curious how it is with the mid level mix nearby 

Snow growth is fine. The warmth is at lower levels. Here is the 06 NAM for Buffalo. Several  hours of sleet or snow/sleet mix. Cobb method for Buffalo gives 14.7" for 06 NAM and 17.3" for gfs.  Greater qpf partially compensates for mixing in 06 NAM.

 

omeg.png

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Snow growth is fine. The warmth is at lower levels. Here is the 06 NAM for Buffalo. Several  hours of sleet or snow/sleet mix. Cobb method for Buffalo gives 14.7" for 06 NAM and 17.3" for gfs.  Greater qpf partially compensates for mixing in 06 NAM.

 

omeg.png

In the end, and generally speaking because it may be correct in some locations with this storm, I believe the Nam is overdone with the warming and other model consensus will prevail. I see that the 0z Arw nest is now much snowier than 12k Nam.

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Some Cobb method amounts from 06z runs (NAM first column/GFS second). NAM ratios are lower due to mixing, the NAM 0.3 at ilg is all sleet.

 

PHL -     0.2           0.1

ILG -      0.3"           1.1

ABE -     1.2            4.7 (10:1)

LNS -     1.3            4.0(10:1)

BUF -    14.7 (10:1) 17.3 (12:1)

ERI -      21.5 (12:1) 19.4 (13:1)

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Some Cobb method amounts from 06z runs (NAM first column/GFS second). NAM ratios are lower due to mixing, the NAM 0.3 at ilg is all sleet.

 

PHL -     0.2           0.1

ILG -      0.3"           1.1

ABE -     1.2            4.7 (10:1)

LNS -     1.3            4.0(10:1)

BUF -    14.7 (10:1) 17.3 (12:1)

ERI -      21.5 (12:1) 19.4 (13:1)

@Mitchnick and @Chubbs thanks...I think I'm making a last second adjustment to Erie. Never been there and yeah it's not niagra falls it seems like a nice place to visit ;). 

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20 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

@Mitchnick and @Chubbs thanks...I think I'm making a last second adjustment to Erie. Never been there and yeah it's not niagra falls it seems like a nice place to visit ;). 

NAM blitzes Erie. The mixing occurs mainly before the heavy qpf arrives.

omeg.png

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