Chubbs Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 The 18z gfs vs tonights radiosonde measurements. The trough in the midwest came in a little stronger+ west vs the gfs prog, heights in east higher. Indicates a continuation of west trend for at least another cycle or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weenies cliff diving in western Pa and western Ny Still looks decent. But yeah mixing issues are creeping closer by the minute. Hopefully the storm forgot it’s ezpass and can’t go further west through the turnpike 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Nam is insanely NW. Maybe the phasing shortwave sampled better, but wow, guess I'm saving money? The backside vort has become quite a beast. Last 4 gfs runs. The NW trend has legs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Todays 06z national blend of models vs yesterdays. Congrats Ohio/NWPa/WNY, steady cutback on east side continues. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Talk about a waste of cold, check out the -40 to -45 temps in Canada not too far north of the GL. Incredible. By the way, you have to give this map a chance to load and then it's real easy to move around. Also, "X" out of the option screen that is in the way. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true¢er=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 06z vs 00z euro. Still bleeding here, but the bleeding has stopped in Niagara Falls/Lowville/Erie, at least temporarily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Everyone playing in the snow on Monday. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 @Parsley and @tombo82685 brought the sleet to Upstate Ny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: @Parsley and @tombo82685 brought the sleet to Upstate Ny And I’m going to niagra region to top it off. Can’t wait to be dry slotted lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: And I’m going to niagra region to top it off. Can’t wait to be dry slotted lol Haha. They are going to get the typical January Phl special 2 inches of slop. Stay home and watch football 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. They are going to get the typical January Phl special 2 inches of slop. Stay home and watch football Allsnow is on tilt Heisi, enjoy the trip. Bring some snow back for him 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @Parsley and @tombo82685 brought the sleet to Upstate Ny Lol. Well, we weren’t up here to chase atleast. I’m glad this vacation coincides with a winter storm. Should be interesting to see how it plays out but looks like a real mess. Atleast there is a nice snowpack in place. The -12 this morning I could live without. Won’t even take the kids out in this today, tomorrow should be manageable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, Parsley said: Lol. Well, we weren’t up here to chase atleast. I’m glad this vacation coincides with a winter storm. Should be interesting to see how it plays out but looks like a real mess. Atleast there is a nice snowpack in place. The -12 this morning I could live without. Won’t even take the kids out in this today, tomorrow should be manageable. Enjoy. I’m glad you guys get to experience some winter. As you know what we will be dealing with down here…… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Enjoy. I’m glad you guys get to experience some winter. As you know what we will be dealing with down here…… Thanks. My wife gets to enjoy the spa. I get to play in the snow with the kids. Fair deal. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Heights lower early helped nudge us back east a tad. Not enough to resurrect the cliff jumpers tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Heights lower early helped nudge us back east a tad. Not enough to resurrect the cliff jumpers tho The 06 gfs was a better match to the radiosonde obs than 18z. We'll see if it is enough to stop the bleeding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 26 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Heights lower early helped nudge us back east a tad. Not enough to resurrect the cliff jumpers tho Maybe not, but the Icon has not really wavered from this map other than cutting an inch but always bringing it back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Rgem doubled MDT snowfall from 6z going from 2 to 3.8". Too little, too late? Idk, but it's certainly not too late for modest atmospheric changes that result in a better "thump." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Maybe a surprise under that H5 low? Lehigh valley maybe? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 PGH weenies are excited for at least the possibility of over a foot because I guess it’s been a long time over there. Million dollar question is whether the Steelers can pull an upset against KC. Will be a fun football day regardless 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 I'm happy for my Pittsburgh friends. It's been a loooooooooooong time since they have had a legit heavy snowfall out there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jec6 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 what time will this be wrapping up on Monday? I'm in western NY this weekend and need to make the drive back to SE PA Monday. Trying to figure out if there is a window of time that will be best/safest. Basically Watkins Glen to Binghamton, down 81 to the NE Extension of the TPK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 27 minutes ago, chescowx said: WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight. Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. .6" of accretion? That would be a pretty significant icing event. I'm going with 1/3 of the snow accum and ice accretion. Warm air is going to scour pretty quickly on this. Think we'll be around 40 Monday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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