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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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The 18z gfs vs tonights radiosonde measurements. The trough in the midwest came in a little stronger+ west vs the gfs prog, heights in east higher. Indicates a continuation of west trend for at least another cycle or two.

hgt500_compare_202201150000.png

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weenies cliff diving in western Pa and western Ny 

Still looks decent. But yeah mixing issues are creeping closer by the minute. Hopefully the storm forgot it’s ezpass and can’t go further west through the turnpike 

B4F8232D-837A-4DF2-96DB-8E41A67CCD23.png

40080CAC-5FAC-4433-8E20-0D812291560A.png

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Talk about a waste of cold, check out the -40 to -45 temps in Canada not too far north of the GL. Incredible. By the way, you have to give this map a chance to load and then it's real easy to move around. Also, "X" out of the option screen that is in the way.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@Parsley and @tombo82685 brought the sleet to Upstate Ny 

Lol. Well, we weren’t up here to chase atleast.  I’m glad this vacation coincides with a winter storm. Should be interesting to see how it plays out but looks like a real mess. Atleast there is a nice snowpack in place. The -12 this morning I could live without. Won’t even take the kids out in this today, tomorrow should be manageable. 

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5 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Lol. Well, we weren’t up here to chase atleast.  I’m glad this vacation coincides with a winter storm. Should be interesting to see how it plays out but looks like a real mess. Atleast there is a nice snowpack in place. The -12 this morning I could live without. Won’t even take the kids out in this today, tomorrow should be manageable. 

Enjoy. I’m glad you guys get to experience some winter. As you know what we will be dealing with down here……

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16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy. I’m glad you guys get to experience some winter. As you know what we will be dealing with down here……

Thanks. My wife gets to enjoy the spa. I get to play in the snow with the kids. Fair deal.

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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Heights lower early helped nudge us back east a tad.  Not enough to resurrect the cliff jumpers tho

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh41_trend.gif

The 06 gfs was a better match to the radiosonde obs than 18z. We'll see if it is enough to stop the bleeding.

hgt500_compare_202201151200.png

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26 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Heights lower early helped nudge us back east a tad.  Not enough to resurrect the cliff jumpers tho

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh41_trend.gif

Maybe not, but the Icon has not really wavered from this map other than cutting an inch but always bringing it back.

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PGH weenies are excited for at least the possibility of over a foot because I guess it’s been a long time over there. Million dollar question is whether the Steelers can pull an upset against KC. Will be a fun football day regardless 

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what time will this be wrapping up on Monday?  I'm in western NY this weekend and need to make the drive back to SE PA Monday.  Trying to figure out if there is a window of time that will be best/safest.  Basically Watkins Glen to Binghamton, down 81 to the NE Extension of the TPK

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WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data

Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening,
 then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight.
 Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from
 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening,
 becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent.  Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation
 up to 0.6 inches.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning,
 then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill
 around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning,
 becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch.
 Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.

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27 minutes ago, chescowx said:

WXSIM for East Nantmeal Twp with 12z data

Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening,
 then a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow likely after midnight.
 Breezy. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from
 15 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening,
 becoming 16 mph, gusting to 22 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent.  Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation
 up to 0.6 inches.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning,
 then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 34. Wind chill
 around 23. Wind southwest around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning,
 becoming 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch.
 Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.

.6" of accretion?    That would be a pretty significant icing event.      I'm going with 1/3 of the snow accum and ice accretion.    Warm air is going to scour pretty quickly on this.    Think we'll be around 40 Monday morning.

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