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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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There was a cutback in front-end amounts overnight, from Carolinas northward. Below is 06z National blend of models snowmap vs ytday 06z. Snow footprint has shrunk a bit in past 24-houyrs.

trend-nbm-2022011406-f096.snowfall_acc.us_ma.gif

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Everyone playing in the snow on Monday.

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

C’mon gefs member 26!! 1 in a milllion chance..maybe..

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We've been tracking this thing for days now and we (me included) sometimes forget that when we track something for this long, being more than 48 out from start time is plenty of time for consequential changes, good and bad.

So nobody with weenie blood running through their veins should look beyond this event yet imho.

I'm not saying I'm holding out hope that any where east of Cumberland  to State College stands a chance at all snow, but the amount of thump remains an unresolved issue.

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I found a decent cheap hotel @ Rochester. With my budget it works out. About a 5 6 hour drive with stops. Theres a good shot at 20 if banding sets up perfectly. Should be a few hours of +SN in the deform region 

Great. I just hope it's not one of those hotels that rents by the hour.💋

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Not much change in the 06 euro vs 00z. Here is trend vs 06z yesterday, to look at longer-term trends. Past 24-hour trend has been to come in faster, but with less of a thump.

trend-ecmwf_full-2022011406-f066.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.gif

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image.gif.7317bed9a575be24aacfcf37ba4b597b.gif

26 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

We've been tracking this thing for days now and we (me included) sometimes forget that when we track something for this long, being more than 48 out from start time is plenty of time for consequential changes, good and bad.

So nobody with weenie blood running through their veins should look beyond this event yet imho.

I'm not saying I'm holding out hope that any where east of Cumberland  to State College stands a chance at all snow, but the amount of thump remains an unresolved issue.

 

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25 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I found a decent cheap hotel @ Rochester. With my budget it works out. About a 5 6 hour drive with stops. Theres a good shot at 20 if banding sets up perfectly. Should be a few hours of +SN in the deform region 

Assuming you don't get a ukmet track or any east adjustment roc would be the best spot imo. Northerly to northeasterly flow will enhance precip coming off lake ontario

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55 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

We've been tracking this thing for days now and we (me included) sometimes forget that when we track something for this long, being more than 48 out from start time is plenty of time for consequential changes, good and bad.

So nobody with weenie blood running through their veins should look beyond this event yet imho.

I'm not saying I'm holding out hope that any where east of Cumberland  to State College stands a chance at all snow, but the amount of thump remains an unresolved issue.

 

85F2E34C-88E7-4110-9873-B00958EA870A.jpeg

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The only good part I have seen consistently portrayed by the models is that the warming is from the ground (below 9825mb) up and not from the 850mb-700mb level down. Yes caveat it does look close, but there is a leanin the snowier direction. So any snowy periods depicted by the modeling should be that, snow. It doesn't look like much snow is going to be lost to sleet. I think the reason why Kuchera is lower is because the 925s do go above faster than the 850s and if the 10:1 key on that level, that is why.

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ec2.JPG

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2 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Sleet to Tom now on the NAM this is exactly why I’m not chasing to Rochester this thing just keeps going NW. God bless you Heisy.

Yeah today's runs actually possibly pointing towards Erie region lol. Its never set in stone when it comes to chasing just getting ideas

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Yeah today's runs actually possibly pointing towards Erie region lol. Its never set in stone when it comes to chasing just getting ideas

Yeah dude my spot is Johnston City for these type of storms I take 476 straight up it’s like 2 hours for me but they are out of it now too. Hope wherever you go you get smoked tho dude. I’m still pissed about my Millville pick last Monday where Sea Isle got 14”.

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Then again mesos models keep showing this inverted mix. I dont know what's going on there, system so wrapped up warm air punching int the ccb 

That's why this one ain't worth the expense and time. I'd wait for something that has a substantially less bust factor. Or just go to someplace closer but with better odds, which is why I  suggested State College.  But their hotels are probably more money since it's a college town.

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32 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yeah today's runs actually possibly pointing towards Erie region lol. Its never set in stone when it comes to chasing just getting ideas

Canaan Valley WV or Wisp ski resort area in Md. should do very well. Beautiful area. Elevation over 3000'. 

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