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Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event


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Everyone playing in the snow on Monday.

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

C’mon gefs member 26!! 1 in a milllion chance..maybe..

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I like the thread title, A+

Thank you, hopefully not an overly prophetic title.  This one has the holiday weekend rule going for it so everyone (including YOU East Coast trough) avoid too much model run-to-run negativity!

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GFS has pretty good NE flow lake enhancement that has crossover from Ontario to Erie. Can (possibly) kick this thing further East so PHL gets in on more snow action and would probably still get decent totals. I guess time will tell, still too early

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Interesting video put out by Bernie Rayno this evening.  Basically in agreement with this forum as it stands now. An apps. special.  Nice to see the ski resorts cash in especially Elk if this verifies. Then we can have the deep snowpack to the north and west of our area to hopefully set us up for better storm tracks going forward. 

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All I know is….by the time this thing is done some of us might want to count ourselves lucky if the majority of precipitation is non frozen….heavy wet snow or any appreciable icing concurrent with numerous 60mph gusts is a recipe for widespread multi day power outages.  

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1 hour ago, anowal01 said:

2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO!

I just want to thank you for starting this thread.

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Just now, Mitchg said:

Fish storm slightly stronger/slower  on GFS for tomorrow night. That might gum up the works in a good way.  

Yep. And out west is coming onshore weaker. We’ll see how this plays out, I’ll say it’s equal to or less amp’d than 18z.

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster 

one caveat here could be, the northern stream energy is weaker and slower, that could play a role how fast it gets yanked north

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster 

Might work out with a stronger vort, but more influence over the top. We’ll see how it plays out. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

one caveat here could be, the northern stream energy is weaker and slower, that could play a role how fast it gets yanked north

Yea, I was just looking at it. Seems to be the wild card here. The shortwave is stronger on its own, but  not slowing it down or heading north too early. Def some eye tricks going on here lol. 

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  • anowal01 changed the title to Jersey Shore is Two-for-Two, This Time Around We Might Be Blue - 1/16/22-1/17/22 Event
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