anowal01 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 I like the thread title, A+ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anowal01 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I like the thread title, A+ Thank you, hopefully not an overly prophetic title. This one has the holiday weekend rule going for it so everyone (including YOU East Coast trough) avoid too much model run-to-run negativity! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErieWX Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS has pretty good NE flow lake enhancement that has crossover from Ontario to Erie. Can (possibly) kick this thing further East so PHL gets in on more snow action and would probably still get decent totals. I guess time will tell, still too early 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Lou Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Interesting video put out by Bernie Rayno this evening. Basically in agreement with this forum as it stands now. An apps. special. Nice to see the ski resorts cash in especially Elk if this verifies. Then we can have the deep snowpack to the north and west of our area to hopefully set us up for better storm tracks going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 All I know is….by the time this thing is done some of us might want to count ourselves lucky if the majority of precipitation is non frozen….heavy wet snow or any appreciable icing concurrent with numerous 60mph gusts is a recipe for widespread multi day power outages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon flattening heights NE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, anowal01 said: 2022 has been good for us shore folk so far, but models presently favoring frozen west, shore likely to be battered by winds, talk about it...GO! I just want to thank you for starting this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Icon flattening heights NE Wow big changes, one more nudge like that and I might have a nice crow platter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like icon take it over or just east of philly. Less northern stream interaction to sling it north and more tpv compressing hgts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Fish storm slightly stronger/slower on GFS for tomorrow night. That might gum up the works in a good way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like icon take it over or just east of philly. Less northern stream interaction to sling it north and more tpv compressing hgts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Mitchg said: Fish storm slightly stronger/slower on GFS for tomorrow night. That might gum up the works in a good way. Yep. And out west is coming onshore weaker. We’ll see how this plays out, I’ll say it’s equal to or less amp’d than 18z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 @57 , height field is less amp’d than 18z. Like where this is heading. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 TPV is a bit further east this run, but the ridge across the northern tier is compressing everything south. Hgts out ahead are bit higher, ULL is a tad weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 60.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, irishbri74 said: @57 , height field is less amp’d than 18z. Like where this is heading. hgt field looks higher to me across tenn valley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, irishbri74 said: 60.. its not as strong, but hgt field is higher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Easier to see on 250mb winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster one caveat here could be, the northern stream energy is weaker and slower, that could play a role how fast it gets yanked north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: This looks a bit uglier to me at h5. Hgts are hiogher, tpv moving out a bit faster, and the ull is trying to go towards neutral tilt faster Might work out with a stronger vort, but more influence over the top. We’ll see how it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: one caveat here could be, the northern stream energy is weaker and slower, that could play a role how fast it gets yanked north Yea, I was just looking at it. Seems to be the wild card here. The shortwave is stronger on its own, but not slowing it down or heading north too early. Def some eye tricks going on here lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 def going towards neutral tilt faster here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2022 Report Share Posted January 13, 2022 this is going to be west again with the ull track, but maybe a tad east of 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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