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Winter Storm (& Rain) Threats Day 5 & Beyond II


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this thread has turned into a full on weenie assault 

I'm just curious what Tombo had to search on google to find that gif...

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

One fear is with fast flow this just becomes a crappy weak wave. As is this is still a blockbuster 

gfs-deterministic-neng-snow_48hr-3565600.png

I have really been trying to embrace an attitude of gratitude for snowfall during my first winter back on the east coast in several years, but if I eke out 2'' while ACY gets 16''...

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That track reminds me of Nemo in 15 or whatever winter it was. The one nyc had forecast for 2’ and blizzard warnings. Philly had high totals then got slashed everyday closer

I was in NYC for that one. Forecast was 2-3', got less than six inches. It was a good winter, but that bust colored my whole mood

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Reminiscent of some big storms with sharp western cutoffs that crush areas mainly NE of PHL.  Just my gut.  Good look here.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh144-180.gif

Yes again, a Miller B, tough to get those far enough S+W, but too early to worry about details.

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yes, storm is looking likely, just have to figure out the details

I'd suspect that lack of confluence is limiting initial precip expansion given no dual jet structure until it's in New England.

As you said it's a Miller B.  Basically we have stale air and await favorable timing of cold front and transfer to our S just in time for the coastal to form and column to be sufficiently cool.

Mids are essentially right over us, another risk with late blooming miller b.

Yes, way too much detail, but it's a look that's been present past few runs.  

Doable, just extra special fortunate should it work out.

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Just now, susqushawn said:

I'd suspect that lack of confluence is limiting initial precip expansion given no dual jet structure until it's in New England.

As you said it's a Miller B.  Basically we have stale air and await favorable timing of cold front and transfer to our S just in time for the coastal to form and column to be sufficiently cool.

Mids are essentially right over us, another risk with late blooming miller b.

Yes, way too much detail, but it's a look that's been present past few runs.  

Doable, just extra special fortunate should it work out.

 

gfs_mslp_wind_eus_fh150-174.gif

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EPS day 7 2-day trend.  Storm signal increasing, but would need to dig more for us. Large changes in the Pacific which impact the western ridge and reduce confidence in any one solution.

epstrend1_22_00.gif

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