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10 outside right now. Almost daylight with moon reflecting off of snow 

Erie’s bay front is completely frozen over. Stayed in the mid-teens all day and is slowly “warming up” to the 20s tonight

I took some sunset pics today in “just go back to bed” wind chills

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20 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Probability of 1" snow depth on xmas in the northeast. White xmas becoming less likely for most.

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2021/12/17/index.html

20211217_ne_table.png

Let's hope we're not entering a period like 100 years ago (not that I can personally recall it).  From 1921-1950, PHL only had 55 3+ inch snowfalls in that 30 year period.  Things got better, we had 71 from 1951-1980,  63 from 1971-2000 and 70 from 1991-2020.  

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22 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Probability of 1" snow depth on xmas in the northeast. White xmas becoming less likely for most.

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2021/12/17/index.html

20211217_ne_table.png

For Chester County PA there is a 26.2% chance of a White Christmas - with this year this will be our 9th consecutive green Christmas. Our longest White Christmas drought was the 17 years between 1930 and 1947 - all 33 White Christmases are listed below

image.png.6d78e82a18781339773188760065f7c1.png

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With the increasing possibility that Chester County will not see it's first measurable snow fall till the dawn of 2022. I went back and looked at the data...since 1894 only 14 seasons or 11% of the time (1972-3 had no snow at all) had seasons where the 1st snow occurred in January. Historically, 89% of the time the 1st snow occurs before New Year's Day. Only 1 year - 2016 ever recorded their 1st snowfall of the year in January and ended the season with above normal (36" annually for Chesco) If I were a forecaster and a betting man I would bet the under on our seasonal average!!

Below are the 14 years with the first snow in January and the seasonal snow totals. Average snow in those years was only 19.9" or 55% of normal seasonal snow

First Snow in January
# Year Snowfall
1 1942 9.0
2 1944 18.7
3 1949 20.9
4 1957 12.3
5 1966 34.6
6 1972 19.8
7 1975 14.5
8 1976 19.0
9 1980 12.8
10 1992 9.5
11 2000 29.7
12 2002 11.1
13 2007 25.3
14 2016 40.8
  Average 19.9
     
     
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22 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Probability of 1" snow depth on xmas in the northeast. White xmas becoming less likely for most.

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/services/blog/2021/12/17/index.html

20211217_ne_table.png

Wow...... the overall difference from the 1951-1980 period to what is happening now is eye opening to say the least. White Christmas chances decreasing 1 and a half to 4 times in most of the above mentioned cities....great information. 

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