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Give Me 100" Of Snow Or Bust GFS Winter Thread


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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/24/2021 at 8:11 AM, DebShadow23.0 said:

If I catch runs like this.  First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS).  This way I won't clog threads with images like these.

Go......

gfs.JPG.3f643571bac850bb1d4883c0c1d63f40.JPG

Total snowfall 0.0"

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33 minutes ago, cbelke said:

ECMWF is on Tombo's side, GFS is on our side. 🙄

1639353600-JOkRffNUNeM.png

1639353600-oBDTlnTjsA4.png

 

So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust.  Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario.

A53EBD85-8B32-449B-8515-A5CCB1F81732.jpeg

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29 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust.  Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario.

A53EBD85-8B32-449B-8515-A5CCB1F81732.jpeg

 

If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. 

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On 12/5/2021 at 7:50 AM, cbelke said:

 

If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. 

Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run.

Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later.

d.JPG.d15812710b9ad495d249b1f56fda9295.JPG

 

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18 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run.

Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later.

 

 

We'll have to see where elevation plays a factor too. I think its too dry, and too warm for anything to stick. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

The best of the GFS from this event (10:1 ratio, so imagine the correct ratio)

tdsgfs.JPG.18c631508df6bf821422f569a61ba2eb.JPG

This brings the predicted GFS snowfall forecast for all events up to 19.7", while 3.9" has actually fallen.  The ratio is getting better.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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