Rainshadow Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 If I catch runs like this. First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS). This way I won't clog threads with images like these. Go...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Here is 35% of your normal snowfall.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 11/24/2021 at 8:11 AM, DebShadow23.0 said: If I catch runs like this. First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS). This way I won't clog threads with images like these. Go...... Total snowfall 0.0" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Here is 35% of your normal snowfall.... Tombo too north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Tombo too north. I hear he put his house in Lowville up for sale since we'll now get more snow than he will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 ECMWF is on Tombo's side, GFS is on our side. 🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, cbelke said: ECMWF is on Tombo's side, GFS is on our side. 🙄 So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust. Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted December 5, 2021 Report Share Posted December 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust. Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario. If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 7:50 AM, cbelke said: If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run. Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run. Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later. We'll have to see where elevation plays a factor too. I think its too dry, and too warm for anything to stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 57 minutes ago, cbelke said: We'll have to see where elevation plays a factor too. I think its too dry, and too warm for anything to stick. Being at 5,000 feet would have been an advantage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted December 7, 2021 Report Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Being at 5,000 feet would have been an advantage. Missed by about 4500 feet. So close... 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas from the TDSGFS family to yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I hope I am wrong, but I have zero confidence with the current version of the GFS as a stand alone model. This door is not closed, but someone better invite the GGEM to the party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2022 Update, after a slow start we are get going now. Predicted snow for PHL: 12.1" Observed snowfall: 1.0" Must be a fluffy snowfall forecast, greater than 10:1 ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2022 The best of the GFS from this event (10:1 ratio, so imagine the correct ratio) This brings the predicted GFS snowfall forecast for all events up to 19.7", while 3.9" has actually fallen. The ratio is getting better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2022 So far the highest: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 A little late on the verification for this. The weekend system that buried Erie. So now we are up to 28.9" predicted while 4.6" has measured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'd say it is in trouble with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just outside of day 8, we could have been more than halfway there...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: I'd say it is in trouble with this one. Yup. 33.6" predicted; 4.6" measured. About an 8:1 predicted, observed ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2022 The Wednesday event another inch to the snow pile. Now up to 34.6" predicted; 4.6" measured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2022 The TDSGFS (as a high end forecast) is going to improve its ratio with today's event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2022 It doesn't get into the count because it goes past day 8, but a classic: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: The TDSGFS (as a high end forecast) is going to improve its ratio with today's event. Nailed it on the head. Perturbation 17, not so much. Now predicted 42.1", observed 12.1". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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