Give Me 100" Of Snow Or Bust GFS Winter Thread; Final(?) Thoughts. Not A Ringing Endorsement For The ECMWF Either.

[Rainshadow]

If I catch runs like this.  First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS).  This way I won't clog threads with images like these.

Go......

[Rainshadow]

Here is 35% of your normal snowfall....

[Rainshadow]

On 11/24/2021 at 8:11 AM, DebShadow23.0 said:

If I catch runs like this.  First it has to be a sounding run and second it has to be within day 8 or less (when skill starts with the GFS).  This way I won't clog threads with images like these.

Go......

Total snowfall 0.0"

[Rainshadow]

2 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Here is 35% of your normal snowfall....

Tombo too north.

[cbelke]

14 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Tombo too north.

I hear he put his house in Lowville up for sale since we'll now get more snow than he will. 

[cbelke]

ECMWF is on Tombo's side, GFS is on our side. 🙄

 

[Rainshadow]

33 minutes ago, cbelke said:

ECMWF is on Tombo's side, GFS is on our side. 🙄

 

So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust.  Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario.

[cbelke]

29 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

So two runs of the GFS get PHL to normal seasonal snowfall before December 15th, maybe I should change the thread title to 200” or bust.  Nice run even pulls the dynamic cooling scenario.

 

If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. 

[Rainshadow]

On 12/5/2021 at 7:50 AM, cbelke said:

 

If we get it, I think the ground temps will be too warm for any major accumulations. 

Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run.

Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later.

 

[cbelke]

18 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Just like the rain they had changing to snow last night for one run.

Well tomorrow is not here yet, but 3.3" in the GFS house and then another 1.2" later.

 

 

We'll have to see where elevation plays a factor too. I think its too dry, and too warm for anything to stick. 

[Rainshadow]

57 minutes ago, cbelke said:

We'll have to see where elevation plays a factor too. I think its too dry, and too warm for anything to stick. 

Being at 5,000 feet would have been an advantage.

[cbelke]

1 minute ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Being at 5,000 feet would have been an advantage.

Missed by about 4500 feet. So close... 😉

 

[Rainshadow]

Merry Christmas from the TDSGFS family to yours. 

[Rainshadow]

I hope I am wrong, but I have zero confidence with the current version of the GFS as a stand alone model.  This door is not closed, but someone better invite the GGEM to the party.

[Rainshadow]

Update, after a slow start we are get going now.

Predicted snow for PHL: 12.1"   Observed snowfall: 1.0"   Must be a fluffy snowfall forecast, greater than 10:1 ratio.

 

[Rainshadow]

The best of the GFS from this event (10:1 ratio, so imagine the correct ratio)

This brings the predicted GFS snowfall forecast for all events up to 19.7", while 3.9" has actually fallen.  The ratio is getting better.

[Rainshadow]

So far the highest:

[Rainshadow]

A little late on the verification for this. The weekend system that buried Erie.

So now we are up to 28.9" predicted while 4.6" has measured.

 

 

[Rainshadow]

 

I'd say it is in trouble with this one. 

[Rainshadow]

Just outside of day 8, we could have been more than halfway there......

[Rainshadow]

8 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

 

I'd say it is in trouble with this one. 

Yup.

33.6" predicted;  4.6" measured.  About an 8:1 predicted, observed ratio.

[Rainshadow]

The Wednesday event another inch to the snow pile.  Now up to 34.6" predicted; 4.6" measured.

[Rainshadow]

The TDSGFS (as a high end forecast) is going to improve its ratio with today's event.

[Rainshadow]

It doesn't get into the count because it goes past day 8, but a classic:

[Rainshadow]

7 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

The TDSGFS (as a high end forecast) is going to improve its ratio with today's event.

Nailed it on the head. Perturbation 17, not so much.

Now predicted 42.1", observed 12.1".