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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Don't think this is as bad as it looks. Partly it is the ensembles starting to resolve individual waves and strength of features. Still have Pacific low in Bering Sea vs Okhotsk Sea.

Yeah, we have cold air around with storms. I’m not sure how why the worry, unless you’re looking for a KU powder keg I guess 

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So we all know the torch is coming for the next 7 days most likely, it's a foregone conclusion with the deep -pna forming out west. You just aren't going to stop the se ridge when you get a massive tr

Btw, for those learning, EPO reflects the level of ridging over Alaska.  A -EPO is when ridging is present over AK (confusing as a negative PNA is for troughing over west coast not ridging) and a +EPO

Happy Holidays Everyone... Man, I sure do hear ya on the lack of snow this year.  I know its December, so we'll have to see how things play out.  Just checking over the models and looking at the

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, we have cold air around with storms. I’m not sure how why the worry, unless you’re looking for a KU powder keg I guess 

Baseline weenie anxiety. 

All I was suggesting, and I know your comment isn't just for me, is that the highly amplified flow seen across all ensemble guidance past d10 becomes suspect once we get within d10.

As a result, it may be prudent to anticipate a continued progressive flow.

In my opinion it makes a bit trickier to line up the dominoes for our area but it totally can happen.  Ensemble snow means argue in general that we will snow.

I'm hopeful personally, just feel like the fly below when I get excited at the long range tellies...epo just not able to hold this season

b1a73eed705c4193296166d7f9f557a1.gif.44f492add0616193ace2d8f9d8884a19.gif

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I would argue this pattern is one of the best we can get with any Niña that packs a punch like this year. Literally the staple of a Niña is a flattened PNA ridge that bombards Seattle/Vancouver with pac air, and we’re not currently seeing that (although like others mentioned, may revert to that in Feb). 

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17 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Baseline weenie anxiety. 

All I was suggesting, and I know your comment isn't just for me, is that the highly amplified flow seen across all ensemble guidance past d10 becomes suspect once we get within d10.

As a result, it may be prudent to anticipate a continued progressive flow.

In my opinion it makes a bit trickier to line up the dominoes for our area but it totally can happen.  Ensemble snow means argue in general that we will snow.

I'm hopeful personally, just feel like the fly below when I get excited at the long range tellies...epo just not able to hold this season

b1a73eed705c4193296166d7f9f557a1.gif.44f492add0616193ace2d8f9d8884a19.gif

But we will can spikes in the pna (example this past week) that a smooth out mean won’t see this far out. With so many vorts running around we will have lots of model chaos. The Pv is on our side of the country so I’m not too concerned about the epo region. We will be getting artic shots and lots of activity. I don’t see how we don’t snow in this pattern. It’s a million times better then the crap we had in December 

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19 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Baseline weenie anxiety. 

All I was suggesting, and I know your comment isn't just for me, is that the highly amplified flow seen across all ensemble guidance past d10 becomes suspect once we get within d10.

As a result, it may be prudent to anticipate a continued progressive flow.

In my opinion it makes a bit trickier to line up the dominoes for our area but it totally can happen.  Ensemble snow means argue in general that we will snow.

I'm hopeful personally, just feel like the fly below when I get excited at the long range tellies...epo just not able to hold this season

b1a73eed705c4193296166d7f9f557a1.gif.44f492add0616193ace2d8f9d8884a19.gif

Not confident on anything past day 10. Good news is that pattern is much better than December, so don't need to bank on lala land improvement.

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15 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Not confident on anything past day 10. Good news is that pattern is much better than December, so don't need to bank on lala land improvement.

I showed maps for d9, not lala.  D9 does not maintain the lala look.  That's all I'm saying. 

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39 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I showed maps for d9, not lala.  D9 does not maintain the lala look.  That's all I'm saying. 

Understand

4 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

FIvalxoUcAAPZnV.jpeg.edcd5bfb8ebd6a6b9d2d64d15ba142f4.jpeg

How about the EPO? We could be OK for a while, if ridging shifts west a bit, but at some point nina will probably spoil the party.

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Understand

How about the EPO? We could be OK for a while, if ridging shifts west a bit, but at some point nina will probably spoil the party.

Any PNA breakdown could be possibly offset by the EPO

epo.jpg

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8 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Any PNA breakdown could be possibly offset by the EPO

epo.jpg

That is consistent with the CFS, which gradually shifts ridging westward over the next 6 weeks, eventually getting too far west. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_fh168-1008.gif

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

That is consistent with the CFS, which gradually shifts ridging westward over the next 6 weeks, eventually getting too far west. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_fh168-1008.gif

Which IMO will be the kiss of death for February. Need to make hay in the next three weeks 

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00z/10th Ensemble Comparison 1/10-1/25. Normal 850mb temp around  -4C. 

+PNA Hands It Off To The -EPO, Can Kick on La La Land Changes.

Where there is skill, any warmer periods have shrunk over the next 10 days. Enough cold salvos first by the PNA and then by the EPO to really not give warmer air a chance to get this far east. Are colder members/off timing masking warmer days?  Maybe, but it looks like one day wonders. Yes the week 2 cold is predicated on the EPO, but it should skillfully start colder (plus wave 1 hit).  MJO looks like a bifurcated mess and a non-factor. Then the question are the models blowing smoke with the retrogression of the pattern toward the end (poorer angle of the cold) or will the can get kicked again 3 or 4 days from now. 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10;  PNA Day 11; AO Day 10

Recent Verification Tendency:  More Positive For All

GEFS: (0.5 shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (1.5 shorter) above normal anomalies Jan 12th thru Jan 13th, (longer) below normal anomalies Jan 14th thru Jan 18th, near to below normal anomalies Jan 19th & Jan 20th, barneyesque below normal anomalies Jan 21st to Jan 25th (end of run).

GEPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (much shorter) above normal anomalies later Jan 12th through Jan 13th, below normal anomalies Jan 14th thru Jan 19th, above normal anomalies Jan 20th into Jan 21st, below normal anomalies Jan 22nd, above normal anomalies Jan 23rd, below normal anomalies Jan 24th & Jan 25th (end of run).

EPS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (same) above normal anomalies later Jan 12th into Jan 14th, (much longer) below normal anomalies later Jan 14th into Jan 23rd, above normal anomalies Jan 24th. (end of run).    

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jan 18th-Jan 25th. Low confidence of near normal temperatures, pockets of below confidence nearby last two days.      

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:      +EPO (longer) thru 1/14; neg 1/15-1/25

                 +PNA thru 1/18; around neut 1/19-1/25

                +NAO (same) thru 1/13; (close) neg 1/14-1/20; pos 1/21-1/25

GEPS:     +EPO (day longer) thru 1/15; neut 1/16-1/19; neg 1/20-1/25  

                +PNA (same) thru 1/17; (change, colder) neut 1/17-1/21; neg 1/22-1/25

                +NAO thru 1/13, (close) neg 1/14-1/18; pos 1/19-1/25

EPS:        +EPO thru 1/14; neg 1/15-1/24

                +PNA thru 1/17; neg 1/18-1/24

                +NAO, (similar) except neg 1/14 & 1/15

 
WPO:       Negative

 

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection Phase 7/8 border

GEFS   Phase 7 to Phase 8; EPS Phase 7 to Phase 6 (runs ends 1/24). 

MVentrice Phase 2 border;  bifurcated Phase 4 & Phase 8 at end.

 

                  

Strat: NASA Wave 1 90th percentile peak (1100 gpm) mid month; Wave 2 hit peaking at 70th percentile (550 gpm), before falling off cliff.   EC similar.   

SPV/NAM:  (GFS) ends >1 SD above 60kts. SPV ensembles end above normal 50-55 kts.  EC around 55kts too (all have a 1/16 dip). As much as a Strat hit as we have had around 1/20.   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

 
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As an FYI.  BTW we always run into this management (not posting) problem with this thread.  We usually hit Tom's page 50 at the end of January which then makes it tough to match the thread with the season thru spring. I am going to start a new pattern thread on or about Jan 15th to just split the winter in half and keep the spring pattern within the spring. 

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14 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

As an FYI.  BTW we always run into this management (not posting) problem with this thread.  We usually hit Tom's page 50 at the end of January which then makes it tough to match the thread with the season thru spring. I am going to start a new pattern thread on or about Jan 15th to just split the winter in half and keep the spring pattern within the spring. 

 

21 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

00z/10th Ensemble Comparison 1/10-1/25. Normal 850mb temp around  -4C. 

+PNA Hands It Off To The -EPO, Can Kick on La La Land Changes.

Where there is skill, any warmer periods have shrunk over the next 10 days. Enough cold salvos first by the PNA and then by the EPO to really not give warmer air a chance to get this far east. Are colder members/off timing masking warmer days?  Maybe, but it looks like one day wonders. Yes the week 2 cold is predicated on the EPO, but it should skillfully start colder (plus wave 1 hit).  MJO looks like a bifurcated mess and a non-factor. Then the question are the models blowing smoke with the retrogression of the pattern toward the end (poorer angle of the cold) or will the can get kicked again 3 or 4 days from now. 

Teleconnection Fcst Skill Starts At:  NAO Day 10;  PNA Day 11; AO Day 10

Recent Verification Tendency:  More Positive For All

GEFS: (0.5 shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (1.5 shorter) above normal anomalies Jan 12th thru Jan 13th, (longer) below normal anomalies Jan 14th thru Jan 18th, near to below normal anomalies Jan 19th & Jan 20th, barneyesque below normal anomalies Jan 21st to Jan 25th (end of run).

GEPS: (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (much shorter) above normal anomalies later Jan 12th through Jan 13th, below normal anomalies Jan 14th thru Jan 19th, above normal anomalies Jan 20th into Jan 21st, below normal anomalies Jan 22nd, above normal anomalies Jan 23rd, below normal anomalies Jan 24th & Jan 25th (end of run).

EPS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jan 12th, (same) above normal anomalies later Jan 12th into Jan 14th, (much longer) below normal anomalies later Jan 14th into Jan 23rd, above normal anomalies Jan 24th. (end of run).    

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jan 18th-Jan 25th. Low confidence of near normal temperatures, pockets of below confidence nearby last two days.      

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:      +EPO (longer) thru 1/14; neg 1/15-1/25

                 +PNA thru 1/18; around neut 1/19-1/25

                +NAO (same) thru 1/13; (close) neg 1/14-1/20; pos 1/21-1/25

GEPS:     +EPO (day longer) thru 1/15; neut 1/16-1/19; neg 1/20-1/25  

                +PNA (same) thru 1/17; (change, colder) neut 1/17-1/21; neg 1/22-1/25

                +NAO thru 1/13, (close) neg 1/14-1/18; pos 1/19-1/25

EPS:        +EPO thru 1/14; neg 1/15-1/24

                +PNA thru 1/17; neg 1/18-1/24

                +NAO, (similar) except neg 1/14 & 1/15

 
WPO:       Negative

 

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection Phase 7/8 border

GEFS   Phase 7 to Phase 8; EPS Phase 7 to Phase 6 (runs ends 1/24). 

MVentrice Phase 2 border;  bifurcated Phase 4 & Phase 8 at end.

 

                  

Strat: NASA Wave 1 90th percentile peak (1100 gpm) mid month; Wave 2 hit peaking at 70th percentile (550 gpm), before falling off cliff.   EC similar.   

SPV/NAM:  (GFS) ends >1 SD above 60kts. SPV ensembles end above normal 50-55 kts.  EC around 55kts too (all have a 1/16 dip). As much as a Strat hit as we have had around 1/20.   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

 

Patterns have been slow to change since October, would be nice if that seasonal trend continued for a couple of more weeks.

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18 hours ago, Chubbs said:

That is consistent with the CFS, which gradually shifts ridging westward over the next 6 weeks, eventually getting too far west. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_fh168-1008.gif

That was yesterday's 6z run. By the 12z run, the Cfs decided to go colder for February. 

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1 (1).png

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

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