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As mentioned earlier, this further affirms that the cards don’t appear to be in our favor into early Dec. I’m not too worried though. Despite any cold flushing that might occur from the pac, it’s not too difficult for it to set up shop again this time of year. Feb would be a different story if this were to occur. GFS ensembles have some slight cold signal around dec 7/8 in my area in and Ohio with Barney in the op run which is just for giggles since it’s fantasy, but nothing seems to strongly suggest any long-term torching. **At least for now

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Below normal temperature anomalies that reach the Barney purple level.  Or what I drank every time our children put on that show.

Basically the pattern we have been in. Problem with that is, a lot of nw flow. Nothing can really amplify in that look. Clipper type pattern 

00z/28th Ensemble Comparison 11/28-12/13. Normal 850mb temp around 0C.  Not Much There, Move On. The first week of December did trend colder as a -EPO hit developed and

Posted Images

00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 11/23-12/8. Normal 850mb temp around +1C. 

First Week Of Meteorological Winter Looks Above Normal.

Yes the rest of November will be below average.  thank the Rex Blocking -NAO, because the Pacific is not cooperating.  As Tom says once the -NAO unravels, the teleconnections favor bringing warmer anomalies eastward. The teleconnection skill to about day 10 has been pretty good and I'd be playing well it is week 2, EPO not that skillful that far out, la la land rationalizing 101 at this point to think otherwise. If the MJO gets more robust, then that first week warm up could be shorter and more fleeting. If anything given the teleconnections being close, that 1st would could trend warmer. So for now it looks like a respite period coming.  Predicted Wave 1 activity if it is followed up wave 2 and a more robust MJO in colder phases would favor colder beyond the first week.  For now that is la la land.

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 10.5;  PNA Day 13; AO Day 9

Recent Verification Tendency:  more positive NAO; neutral PNA & AO

GEFS: (Day Shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Nov 24th, (warmer) above normal anomalies Nov 24 & Nov 25th, (2 days longer) below normal anomalies Nov 26th thru Dec 2nd, above normal anomalies Dec 3rd thru Dec 6th, near to below normal anomalies Dec 7th & Dec 8th (end of run).

GEPS: (0.5 shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Nov 24th, (shorter) above normal anomalies Nov 25th, (day longer) below normal anomalies Nov 26th thru Nov 29th, (same) above normal anomalies Nov 30th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies Dec 1st & Dec 2nd, above normal anomalies Dec 3rd & Dec 4th, near normal anomalies Dec 5th, below normal anomalies Dec 6th & Dec 7th, above normal anomalies Dec 8th. (end of run).

EPS: (0.5 shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Nov 24th, (warmer) above normal anomalies later Nov 24th int Nov 25th, (day longer, consistent) below normal anomalies Nov 26th thru Dec 2nd, above normal anomalies  Dec 3rd thru Dec 5th, below normal anomalies Dec 6th & Dec 7th. (end of run).    

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Dec 1st-Dec 8th. Weak Confidence of above normal temperatures. Looks like near normal confidence = below normal temperatures again this cold season.  

 

Teleconnections: 

GEFS:     +EPO thru 12/2; neut 12/3-12/5; pos 12/6-12/8  

                +PNA thru 12/1 (day longer) ; neg 12/2-12/8

                -NAO thru 11/28 (shorter) ; pos 11/28-12/8;

GEPS:     +EPO

                +PNA thru 12/1 (2 days shorter) ; neg 12/2-12/7; pos 12/8

                -NAO thru 11/28 (same);  pos 11/29-12/8

EPS:       +EPO

                +PNA thru 12/1 (day shorter); neg 12/2-12/7

                -NAO thru 11/28 (same);  pos 11/29-12/7

 
WPO:   negative, near normal Thanksgiving onward

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel potential Phase 4

GEFS   COD to Phase 7; EPS COD to Phase 7 (runs ends 12/7). 

MVentrice Phase 4 then bifurcated Phase 7 & Phase 1 at end. 

 

                  

Strat: NASA below avg Wave 1 increasing to 70th (900gpm) percentile at end; Wave 2 activity peaking to 90th percentile before going to 10th to 30th percentile. EC similar, slightly stronger Wave 1 rise.  

SPV/NAM:  (GFS) falling TO 1SD below average. GEFS, Other Models looks closer to normal. Trop hits thru 12/2, then maybe after 12/8? 

image.png.74019dd1ea2dcec70337a26efcf281b8.png

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5 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

EPS continues to shunt the warmth.. 

 

pretty stout cold pool available in western Canada that keeps getting directed eastward. 

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I don't see its own outlooked teleconnections and this thermal pattern both verifying.  One of them is going to be wrong.

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9 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

I don't see its own outlooked teleconnections and this thermal pattern both verifying.  One of them is going to be wrong.

Strat driven from what I can see. Another wave 2 hit that aligns SPV for cold shot post day 10. Problem is, we are relying on day 10+ onward strat forecast. Watch how we get two areas of warming start. One by Ak, the other near Baffin island. Then can see how SPV starts to tilt more infavor of cold shot aiming into US if extrapolated. This would be my guess as to what it's picking up on. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-1637712000-1638316800-1638576000-40.gif

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Strat driven from what I can see. Another wave 2 hit that aligns SPV for cold shot post day 10. Problem is, we are relying on day 10+ onward strat forecast. Watch how we get two areas of warming start. One by Ak, the other near Baffin island. Then can see how SPV starts to tilt more infavor of cold shot aiming into US if extrapolated. This would be my guess as to what it's picking up on. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-1637712000-1638316800-1638576000-40.gif

In this regard too, the ua pattern gets (too) flattened and we are beyond day 9.  It doesn't look cold or unusually cold.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-8835200.png.76c737e897dd57f2e1916c4012c64cfd.png

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1 minute ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Below normal temperature anomalies that reach the Barney purple level.  Or what I drank every time our children put on that show.

 

I see you've already started reminiscing fondly of your childrens' early years.

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Strat driven from what I can see. Another wave 2 hit that aligns SPV for cold shot post day 10. Problem is, we are relying on day 10+ onward strat forecast. Watch how we get two areas of warming start. One by Ak, the other near Baffin island. Then can see how SPV starts to tilt more infavor of cold shot aiming into US if extrapolated. This would be my guess as to what it's picking up on. 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z30_anom-1637712000-1638316800-1638576000-40.gif

GEFS covering the strat waterfront in that time period. GFS bounces from run to run, 00z run was relatively weak

gfs_gefs_u1060_timeseries.png

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38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a fugly look at the end of the eps overnight. Would make for some nice golfing days 

It’s interesting it got worse overnight while it’s own MJO forecast shows it going into phase 7 by December 9. Definitely some conflicting signals going on.

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Things looking bleak going into December.. may get some cold, but northern stream is active, but not a lot of ways to get it to come south. 

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When your height line enters through Oregon, it's guaranteed to be a bland pattern.

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10 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Models getting more bullish on MJO leaving the nina zones and moving into W Pac. CFS below.

uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png

I dunno, the OLR maps still look to be stuck in maritimes out 15 days. Even on your map, while we do get a pulse towards dateline, you can see all the sinking air along dateline. Base state is showing itself well around 90e which is vomit phases

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I dunno, the OLR maps still look to be stuck in maritimes out 15 days. Even on your map, while we do get a pulse towards dateline, you can see all the sinking air along dateline. Base state is showing itself well around 90e which is vomit phases

Yes its fighting the nina base state and isn't the most robust, but is a change from the past month or so.  From Matt Hugo.

gefsmjo.jpg

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