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Winter Storm Threats (5 days and beyond)


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I could be dead in my grave and I would still head slap you 

Staring down a good appetizer tomorrow into Saturday up here: ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .Colder air will return to northern New England on Friday as low p

This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of e

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, could be one of those interior early season snowstorms from the 90’s. 

Tom will slap me for this, unless he's too busy with his new upstate NY crew. Sell out. 

End of NAM run has northern stream diving farther S, good trajectory. Would most likely "clip" us. Root for something similar to this...

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

Tom will slap me for this, unless he's too busy with his new upstate NY crew. Sell out. 

End of NAM run has northern stream diving farther S, good trajectory. Would most likely "clip" us. Root for something similar to this...

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

I could be dead in my grave and I would still head slap you 

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

EPS generally .5-1" from 295 on nw. Still not to enthused on something big. There is a weak signal for sne with coastal but op run was a major outlier amongst eps for sne

A good red flag as models backed off the big new england snows overnight. As mentioned above - a see flakes deal in our area.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

A good red flag as models backed off the big new england snows overnight. As mentioned above - a see flakes deal in our area.

Yep. I'd be on suicide alert if I  was in NE. But it just goes to show that 4-5 days is just too long for models to hone in on details regardless of consensus among them.

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3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Yep. I'd be on suicide alert if I  was in NE. But it just goes to show that 4-5 days is just too long for models to hone in on details regardless of consensus among them.

I wonder what caused the models to go big yesterday for SNE only to have a pretty good rug pull last night. Like the Carolina Hurricanes losing to the Seattle Kraken last night and costing me an 8 & 6 game parlay and $5000, but hey it happens

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Staring down a good appetizer tomorrow into Saturday up here:

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

.Colder air will return to northern New England on Friday as low
pressure strengthens east of the region.  This strengthening low
will result in a prolonged period of snow across northern New
Hampshire with significant snow accumulations possible along with
slick travel conditions.

NHZ001-002-251600-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0006.211126T1500Z-211127T2100Z/
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Including the cities of Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin,
Dummer, Milan, York Pond, and Lancaster
239 AM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of
  6 inches possible.  Snowfall totals will be greatest over favored
  northwest upslope zones.

* WHERE...Northern Coos and Southern Coos Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and
  snow covered roads.
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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

I wonder what caused the models to go big yesterday for SNE only to have a pretty good rug pull last night. Like the Carolina Hurricanes losing to the Seattle Kraken last night and costing me an 8 & 6 game parlay and $5000, but hey it happens

Euro and unmet were trying to get that southern stream system invoked that was scooting east in the south. 

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1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

Yep. I'd be on suicide alert if I  was in NE. But it just goes to show that 4-5 days is just too long for models to hone in on details regardless of consensus among them.

 

1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

I wonder what caused the models to go big yesterday for SNE only to have a pretty good rug pull last night. Like the Carolina Hurricanes losing to the Seattle Kraken last night and costing me an 8 & 6 game parlay and $5000, but hey it happens

It is not December 1st yet, so it has not not happened yet.

 

Worcester County Mass Pivotal Point Fcst Snowfall Total Thru Tuesday Evening (yes it includes Saturday), last four sounding runs.

EC :           2.2" / 8.6" / 0.9" / 0.0"

TDSGFS : 2.5" / 6.1" / 4.9" / 0.0"

GGEM:     0.4" / 1.2" / 1.2" / 6.8"

UKMET :  0.0" /  10.9" / 9.6"

Even so yesterday there were 50 of 51 EC ensemble members less snowy than the Operational and 40 of 51 members under 2".  Far from consensus. Just being DebShadow.

orh.JPG.3e75f30988eef141f38e8accdcd1182f.JPG

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Will be nice to see some flakes flying.  Was never going to be more than that.  Looks pretty hostile going forward with what looks to be a pretty significant P6 pass so have to appreciate whatever we can get.

Perhaps by mid Dec we get a better look as the MJO may finally get into 7/8.

15818FED-628C-4D0E-9412-6A6700CF167C.gif

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Strong signal for something in the NE

image.png.fdb08d5b6c6b885d4d1593ff787cdae1.png

Yea I actually think the potential snow event would be a few days after that. With no blocking we need a low to clear and head east. Like on the maps I posted it would be the energy in the plains. The gfs has a decent snowstorm from that trailer

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